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1 C 30D C 5W ; E ARID ZONE RESEARCH Vol.30 No.5 Sept.2013 Nino , 2, 3 (1., ;2., ;3., )!:!"# $%&' &'()* +,- (./0)* , 78 9:# 1 2; < 34.=> 56,!"561?@AB 7 C19:DE, F1GH IJKLMNOE1) # 1961 Nino3.4 12; PFQRBS 1 2; < 34,TUVW Nino3.4 12;X Y Z [QR\,BS 1; 3]^_ `,a* b;7qr\,b S 2; 1_ `b;7z [QR\,BS 2;1` c=,!"=> 56,W FEKL1;7_ QR\BS 1 2; c= SZ [ #S 1 2;b 1,!" X 2 56TU,Z [B 1 2; => "#:Nino3.4 ;;Z [; ;;34; Z [, ( 1,1, % U 1 ^ K OK^1 1-2, 2, L %X < 1 3 Z [B, Z [# 1O,#1 MN,1E 4 PF1 OE, CPFQR\1 (,# % ^1 Fa<, Z [Q R\# % 1 5 Z [# 1 N ^ 6-16, #1 # +1 Z [#. 1 NO 17,QR\K C 1a /0. (1 # ^1;!"# 16,,$ 1%7,&' ^1 Q (/0 ()' ^1, b (,,1 (N ),+ 1Z [, *+#,-!".,/!" # #+ 0 1 c,# Z [ \# 1N, N* + S+ 3,0K,1 C123 ( ( , 8W# 1 2; 1, O #; NOE F1KL;? ] VW Nino3.4 <=B 1 2; 1 a,. >)?@ 1Q R Z [QR R\,VW Nino3.4 B 1 2; 1 a, WW FABIJ 1 $%&: ; ' &: :X8(NZ09197) F GHIJ WASP71C FK;LM < () N (GY HY ) O KL ^C FK ()*:PQ(1965-),R,bS,TU,*+9 C..E mail:ya @163.com V htp://azr.xjegi.com

2 770 E 30D 1 +,-./ FW X* X ;(20 Y) 3 VW?@AFW X PF* 1 74 )** [htp:// ncc.cma.g ov.cn/website/index.php?channelid = 43&WCHID=5] Z [QR. ZFW X NOAA [F [htp:// roducts/analysis_ monitoring/ensostuf/ensoyears.shtml]nino3.4 PFFW!"#; b ( 1?@AKL 1 2;X\ Z].?@AX)* 21, 8W# 1 2; 1,!"=> 56, EN F) 1K L; Nino3.4 12;PF 3 5QR,BS 1 2; < 34, ^ a*1 T56 <=> 56,!"561KLJ_ F1KL 34 Z [` # 1 2; 1,C a b c 18 1 X 2 56,F)? X ?,C_L 1LA: X 2 =( M-N P -0.5) 2 /N P (1-P) (1) :N Z [S*;M #C1Z [ S 1 2;b 1 S*;P 1 2; b 1 ( a) (1) TUA X 2,TU1AUX&( 1 => a 0.05,0 1-a1 X U, B X 2, X 2 >X 2 a,cz [ a=>,z [# N; X 2 <X 2 a,cz [B =>, ) !"# &'(1,60 ~150 E) $ %&'(5,0~360 ))*. ( + - ((CQ) /0(CW)1 2; Z.,?@AX)*%7c=1, 0?@A ; b ( 1KL X 19 7#; 34)U,b +,-.+,N ;+, - 2,200hPa + + 2,+ 9# - - b-1n,n ; 1; $%&')*. ( 2; & ')*. ( + -/0. (X)*1 a*,,%7c=1 (@ 1) :-9;: Tab.1 Annualanddecadalvariationofthecorrelationcoeficientsofcirculationcharacteristicquantities amongtherespectiveindices 1; $%&' ()* 2; &' ()* 2;+ - ( /0)* ,!" T => ,!" T => ,!" T 0.01 => ,!" T=> ,!" T=> ,!" T 0.01 => ,!" T 0.05 => ,!" T=> ,!" T=> ,!" T 0.1 => ,!" T => ,!" T=> ,!" T 0.05 => ,!" T=> ,!" T=> 56 9?@AX)*1 ( ), $% &'()*_,!"=> 56 1; $%&'X W_8,a* 0.66,!"=> 56, c $%&' (X 80ODE1QR;2 ; &'( Z,!"= > 56, 90 8, a* 0.75,!"=> 56;+,-(140 E)9 ; (8, S 5;;9;/08 # 9;+ - (B/01< 34, %7O 1`, a* ( )3]!" T 0.1 T 0.02 => 56, 21, 8 2;+ - (B/0 `,!"=> 56, 70 8,,a* -0.95,!"=> 56!"

3 5W P Q :VW Nino3.4 B 1 2; 1 a 771?@AX)* 21 34, cx\de 1,0 77 FGH0 KLB` + 3 4,# F'MN1) 1E < #@ 1?@A)*8B W 1 2; 34(@ 2), #' N1a* T56 <=> 34, 1 ; $ % & ' ) * B 1;!"=> 5 6,?@A7 C1W B 1 2 ;!"=> 56!"561 c0, $%&' B 1; 1#DE, F;N) 1KL Tab.2 Thecorrelationsofcharacteristicquantitiesbetweentherespectiveindicesinperiodswiththehighestcorrelation andthemonthlytemperatureandprecipitateinningxiainjanuaryandfebruary a* 1; $%&')* 1; $%&' ()* ; 0.551,!" T 0.1 => ,!" T=> 56 1; ,!" T=> ,!" T=> ; 0.562,!" T 0.1 => ,!" T=> 56 1; ,!" T=> ,!" T=> 56 a* 2; &')* 2; &' ()* ; ,!" T=> ,!" T=> 56 2; ,!" T=> ,!" T=> 56 a* 2;+ -/0 2;+ - ( ; ,!" T=> ,!" T=> 56 2; ,!" T=> ,!" T=> , F1E, # FN E1KL,#, 1 V W 7 Z [ R \, Nino3.4 1B 1 2; 1 ao 34, E1 FKL,# FAbN &1 3 Nino = >7 < # 1961 Nino ;3 5QR (@ 3)BS 1 2; 3 1<34 5QR QR\ Z [QR\ QR!" 34@c,VW Nino3.4 12;BS 1 2 ; 3,a *, => ;,2000 Z [QR1'N 9a,Nino3.4 12;7 Z [QR \BS 1; 3 1 a* b,3] ,c=b 2000 V 0( c 2000,VW1 b 1BS 1; DEb, BS 2; c=;7qr 8 3 Nino ?@ABCD9 1 2@A( ) E(%)32 Tab.3 Thecorrelationcoeficientsbetween5anomaliesofseatemperatureinearly Nino3.4regioninDecember andthetemperatureandprecipitationanomaliesinningxiainnextjanuaryandfebruary a* ( 50a) Z [QR ( 9a) QR\ 12; ( 0.5, 18a) Z [QR\ 12; ( -0.5, 19a) R\ 12; (<0.5 >-0.5, 13a) 1; ,!" T 0.1 => ,!" T=> ,!" T=> ,!" T=> 56 1; ,!" T 0.1 => ,!" T=> ,!" T=> ,!" T=> 56 2; ,!" T=> ,!" T 0.05 => ,!" T=> ,!" T=> 56 2; ,!" T=> ,!" T 0.05 => ,!" T 0.05 => ,!" T=> 56

4 772 E 30D \,VW Nino3.4 12;BS 2; 3 b, a * 3 ] ;7Z [QR\,VW Nino3.4 BS 2; 3 b, a* -0.48;7 R\,VW Nino3.4 12;BS 1 2; 3 =>, B 2;b,a * =>7 < #@ 3 5QR1a* T56 <=> 56,7 Z [QR\, VW Nino3.4 12;X a BS 1; 3 1a*!" T 0.1 => 56,B, bn 7QR\,Nino ;BS 2; 3 a*!" T 0.1 => 56, cq R\,Nino3.4 12;BS 1 2; 1 D E 7 Z [ Q R \,V W Nino3.4 12;BS 2; 3!" T 0.05 => 56,0 cz [QR\B S 2;1DE,!" => 56 F, b, c KLNOE1DE, E7 QR\,# 1 2; 3 1 FKL,NOE1) Z [QR9 (;) (;)1 S* Z [ 1 2;. 3 U,Z [ 1 2; N 9S, b N 6S; 3 1; 7S,8S,2; 11S,4S 9 F1:(, 1,1 2; 1 FC,; 1 1; c=,2;1c=,1 1 2;U1S* 6S,3] , 9S 1 2 ;b U 7Z [\, c=1?@ 1998,1;1 100% (5/5S),2; 80% (4/5 S), V1Z [\,1 2; c=, Z [ 8 4 FG9 H 1 2 Tab.4 ThetemperatureandprecipitationanomaliesinNingxiainJanuaryandFebruary oftheendingyearsoflaninaevents / -; / -; ( / 1; 2; ; /% S* 1; 2; ; c 10 ; ; ; c 36 ; ; ; c 24 ; ; ; ; ; ; ; S (9 11 ;),c 4S(4 5;), 3S(7 ;),; 1S (1 ;), -0.5 J _ YFW1,G H FW 3.4 5=U X 1961,Z [ 1 2; b S*. X1,Z [S*,Z [ #C1#1, ) Z,A X 2.X&( 11 (>X&

5 5W P Q :VW Nino3.4 B 1 2; 1 a 773 (\18 1)=> a 0.05,0 1-a1 X @ 51,Z [S * N=15,M/N 1; 1 8,, 60%,b18, 40%; 1 53%, 47%,) MNc =1# 2;18,, 73%,18, 27%, N #; 1 60%, b 40% X 2 AB X ,1 2; b 1 X ,L (1)1E,Z [B 1 2; 1,) MN=>,# 0OB 20 X 2 5 6# 1 B /Z [O, B 21 X 2 56# ElNino/LaNinaB 341N',0B,/+, N T 8 5 FG9 1 2 K - <LMN Tab.5 Probabilitiesandteststatisticsoftemperatureand precipitationanomaliesinningxiainjanuaryand FebruaryoftheendingyearsofLaNinaevents ; #CZ [1 S*(M) Z [ S* (N) (P) (M/N) X 2 X b b !"@ 5 c,z [#1 11,!"O E,1 C B 1 a,/,,9!"1 ; 1 K>,7 F +J_ ; 1*+ a, +J_,1,+J_0 1 F,a.,1 2 ( +,1 KL# FN+1IJ 7AB 0, (\1 F, OE +J_? K 7 KLB 1.34, (\'1(KL,0 ; (1 F _ 22 )U, a B( N 3 1 B, ( ",9 # (,$,&> 0 %1#,9^ %(DE, ( # ()1 4 O F 34@c, 1a*(% F#KL1G&+ J_ <=12,+!"=> 56;8'J_W# 1,0b U#` ^1, # 1,?] 10a 29:1?@AKL# F; N, N F) 1KL,0( (F )IJ.a * +GKLAB O,5!"34T \: (1)!"?@A $% &' ()* + - (B/0X\ 1 2;Xa *, ;,1; $%&')*. ( 2; &')*. ( + -/0. (X)*a*,, %7c=1 1; $%&' _ 8 ;2; &'( 90 8,+ - (B/07 701` 8 (2)?@AX)* 8WB W 1 2; 1 34TU,1; $%&')*, B 1; _(_ `),&' ()*, B 1; 3_(, );2; &' )*, B W`, &' ()*, B W 3, _; 2;+ -/0. (B

6 774 E 30D W c= (3) VW Nino3.4 12;P FQRBS 1 2; < 34@ c,vw Nino3.4 12; Y\, Z [QR\,BS 1 ; 3]^_ `,a* b; QR\,BS 2; 3]^_ ` b;z [QR\,BS 2;1` c=,!"=> 56, F 1 EKL,NOE1) _ QRB S 1 2; c= (4) Z [, 1 2; 1, b(9s,6sb);1 ; 3 Nc=- (7 S,8S ),2;c=,(11 S,4S ) (5) Z [\, 1;1 100%(5/5S),2; 80%(4/5S), 2000V1Z [ \,1 2;c=, (6)Z [, 1 2; b =,1; 18, 60%; 1 ),;2; 1,, 60%;1 c=, 73%;X 2 56 TU,Z [B 1 2; ) M N=> (References): 1.,/"0.1^K1 J. %,2004,19(3): FengLihua,MaYuanjun.Cause chainoftheelninoevents J.ProgresinGeophysics,2004,19 (3): P. 1 KB6 J.X8 2, 2004,26(3): YangXuexiang.Reasonandevidences forelninoevent J.JournalofNature,2004,26(3): :; M.:U, 1979: LinLiangxun.TechnologyHandbookofWeather PredictionofGuangdong M.Beijing:MeterologicalPres,1979: P, +,.Z [ #134 J. BC,2007,28(1): YangLin,LiuDong hua,zhongbao.analysisoflaninaefectonlocalclimate J. JournalofMeteorologicalResearchandApplication,2007,28(1): !7. htp:// html. 6 < 3,=(.>(Z [)# 1 J.,2004(2): BuYaling,JiaJia nyi.theimpactonsummerprecipitationofhenanprovinceinei Nino(LaNina)events J.MeteorologyJournalofHenan,2004 (2): ?@A. BBC 1 a J.D, 1999,23(2): WuHongyu.SummerprecipitationofAn shunasociateswitheininoevent J.MeteorologyJournalof Guizhou,1999,23(2): E,,%.#6W F1 J.6,2001,22(1): LiangJuanmei,LiYaox ian,lixiucun.theimpactondroughtandfloodinfloodseasonof GuangxiprovinceinEINinoevents J.MeteorologyJournalof Guangxi,2001,22(1): G,H@,HI,.# JK7c 1 J.X8LM,2004,13(5): ZhangLi juan,zhenghong,zhengkai,etal.theimpactofeininoevents onsummerprecipitationofheilongjiang J.AcademicJournalof NaturalDisaster,2004,13(5): N O,,!.7B?@A. ELNino1 a J.,2001(2): HanZhaoyu,LiuRong, WangZhenghua.PrecipitationofShanxiprovinceandcirculation characteristicsasociatewitheininoevent J.ShanxiMeteoro logicalquarterly,2001(2): ,, P.Q RB1 J. 8,2002,30(4): XiangSuqing,Zhang Linqian,CaoMeilan.ThecorelationofclimateofZhoushancity asociateswitheininoevents J.MeteorologicalScienceand Technology,2002,30(4): ST,U.. /Z [# +71 J.V W, :X8,2010,38(3): LiEnju,ZhaoJingbo.TheimpactofEINino/LaNinaeventson climateofshangdongprovince J.JournalofShaanxiNormalUni versity:naturalscienceedition,2010,38(3): XY B Z [1 a J.B,2011,39(1): Chen Chaoji.Relationshipbetweenthedecadalchangeofdroughtcrop areaingansuandelninoandlaninafrom1950to2000 J. JournalofAnhuiAgriculturnalSciences,2011,39(1): U0,,.KE (Z [:)c E B Z [ 1 a34 J. JK 8,2005,33(3): ZhaoJunxiang,GuanHongshi,JingXueyi.Analysisofspring droughtofsonghuajiang(inhaerbingpart)relatedwithlaninae vents J.HeilongjiangScienceandTechnologyofWaterConser vance,2005,33(3): \0,]0,.#^_. L`C J.V W, :X8,2009,37 (5): YanJunhui,YanJunping,CaoXiaoxing.Studyon precipitationchangesinsouthernandnorthernqinlingmountains anditshazardefectinresponsetoelnino J.JournalofShaanxi NormalUniversity:NaturalScienceEdition,2009,37(5):92-

7 5W P Q :VW Nino3.4 B 1 2; 1 a !"#,Xca,b,.20096,E ^K c J.B,2010,38(12): Wang Yuanchao,ChenMinglu,LiLing,etal.Thereasonanalysistothe largeareadroughtinguangxiinhighsummer2009 J.Journalof AnhuiAgriculturalSciences,2010,38(12): ,.ENSOB + ; a1 J.,,1999,23(6): JinZu hui,taoshiyan.astudyontherelationshipsbetweenensocycle andrainfalsduringsummerandwinterineasternchina J.Chi nesejournalofatmosphericsciences,1999,23(6): abc,. 60#6+7 L1 J.,2010,29(1): TangXiaochun, YuanZhongyou.TheinfluenceofthedroughtdisastercausedbyEl NinoeventsinGuangdongprovinceinrecent60years J.Geo graphicalresearch,2010,29(1): X,,,. ; 34 J.,2008,63(9): ZhangZiy in,gongdaoyi,guodong,etal.anomalouswintertemperature andprecipitationeventsinsouthernchina J.ActaGeographica Sinica,2008,63(9): ,]0. 301B /Z [134 J.E,2003,20(2): XuXiaoling,YanJunping.Analysisonthecorelationbetween theclimatechangeovermaoususandlandandtheelnino/lani naeventssincerecent30years J.AridZoneResearch,2003,20 (2): , c. E1Nino/LaNinaB 3 4 J.,2001,27(2):3-6. LiuGuilian,Zhang Mingqing.CorelationanalysisbetweenElNino/LaNinaphenome nonduringtherecent100yearsandbeijingclimate J.Meteoro logicalmonthly,2001,27(2): ,%.; ac J.,2007,65(4): RenXuejuan,ZhangYaocun.AsociationofwinterWest ernpacificjetstreamanomaliesat200hpawithoceansurfaceheat ingandatmospherictransienteddies J.ActaMeteorologicaSini ca,2007,65(4): RelationshipbetweenSeaTemperatureinEarly Nino3.4Region andairtemperatureandprecipitationinningxiainjanuaryandfebruary YANGQin 1, DINGYong hong 2, LINShu 3 (1.NingxiaClimateCentre,Yinchuan750002,China;2.NingxiaMeteorologicalobservatory,Yinchuan750002,China; 3.ClimateCentreofNorthwestChina,Lanzhou730020,China) Abstract: Thestrongandweakcorelationsofdecadalvariationofrespectiveindicesofcirculationcharacteristic qualities,suchasthepolarvortexinnorthernhemisphere,asiapolarvortexareaandstrengthindex,andeasta siantroughstrengthandlocationindex,wereanalyzedandtestedtopasthroughsignificantlevel.instrongcore lationperiods,thecorelationsbetweenthesecirculationcharacteristicqualitiesandairtemperatureandprecipitati onanomaliesinningxiainjanuaryandfebruaryrevealedthatthestabilityofairtemperatureandprecipitationwere high,thatmeansthat,asthereferencefactorsinprediction,thesecirculationcharacteristicqualitieswereveryim portant.thecorelationanalysisandsignificancetestbetweentheearly Nino3.4regionSSTmonitoringstatein DecemberandtheairtemperatureandprecipitationinNingxiainnextJanuaryandFebruaryfrom1961to2010re vealedthat,undertheelnino/laninaevents,therewasasignificantpositivecorelationandanegativecorela tionbetweenairtemperatureandprecipitationsince2000underclimatewarming;underanelninoevent,there wasasignificantpositiveandnegativecorelationbetweenairtemperatureandprecipitationinfebruary;underala Ninaevent,therewasasignificantnegativecorelationbetweenairtemperatureandprecipitationinFebruary;un deraconstantsst,therewasnosignificantcorelationbetweenairtemperatureandprecipitationinjanuaryand February,andalthesecorelationspasedthesignificantleveltest.FifteenLaNinaeventsoccuredfrom1961to 2010,theirprobabilitiesafectingairtemperatureandprecipitationanomaliesinNingxiainJanuaryandFebruary weredescribed,anditwasverifiedwithx 2 testthattherewasnosignificantcorelationbetweenlaninaeventand airtemperatureandprecipitationinjanuaryandfebruary. Keywords: Nino3.4regionSST;ElNinoevent;LaNinaevent;airtemperature;precipitation;corelationa nalysis;ningxia