Design of Georeference-Based Emission Activity Modeling System (G-BEAMS) for Japanese Emission Inventory Management

Transcription

1 1 13 th Internatonal Emsson Inventory Conference June 7-10, 2004 Clearwater, Florda Sesson 7 Data Management Desgn of Georeference-Based Emsson Actvty Modelng System (G-BEAMS) for Japanese Emsson Inventory Management Kesuke Nansa,, Noryuk Suzuk, Kyosh Tanabe, Shn Kobayash and Yuch Morguch Natonal Insttute for Envronmental Studes, JAPAN

2 2 Outlnes 1. Background 2. Obectve 3. Materals and Methods System functons System confguraton Emsson calculaton Spatal dstrbuton Temporal dstrbuton 4. Conclusons

3 Background 3 A systematc emsson nventory s needed to mprove accuracy of emsson nventory to manage data and methodologes on emsson estmatons, and to quantfy effect of countermeasure to reduce pollutants.

4 Obectve 4 The ams of ths study are to desgn a methodology for systematzng an emsson nventory buldng and to develop the emsson nventory system actually.

5 Necesstes for emsson nventory 5 For emsson management and analyss Macro total emsson Source contrbuton Annual change Emsson proecton Quantfcaton of emsson reducton measures (fuels change, new tech.) Pollutants to be managed (GHG, Ar pollutants) Dfferent concerns For envronmental fate models Emsson wthn calculaton doman Spatal emsson dstrbuton Temporal emsson dstrbuton emtted meda (ar, water, sol) emsson condton (heght, temp., velocty) Chemcal speces and physcal propertes of pollutants Needs for emsson nventory system Inventores for varous types of envronmental burdens Easy update of emsson factors and actvty data Use of top-down and bottom up methods for emsson estmaton Combnaton of exstng emsson data wth estmaton Fndng of data to be modfed for accuracy mprovement Open access to data and methods

6 6 Outlnes 1. Background 2. Obectve 3. Materals and Methods System functons System confguraton Emsson calculaton Spatal dstrbuton Temporal dstrbuton 4. Conclusons

7 System functons and tools 7 System functons Inventory generator (Emssons, Spatal and temporal dstrbutons) Data converter for calculaton (Actvty data, Factors) Orgnal data storage (Statstcs, Actual emsson survey) User nterface Programmng functons GIS Systematzng tools Database software

8 Recpe of emsson nventory 8 User System Methods Recpes of emsson nventory Emsson calculatons Emsson nventory Database

9 Flow of buldng emsson nventory 9 User s request Database Pollutant Year Source Tme Add. nfo Geometry Doman Read recpe Recpes of estmaton methods Select Select Select Select Select Select Generator Control factors Recpe of emsson estmaton Emsson source Control factors Emsson estmaton Actvty EF Chem. spec. Recpe of estmaton of emsson s spatal dstrbuton Emsson by actual survey Phy. spec. Emsson survey Recpe of estmaton of emsson s temporal dstrbuton Recpe of addtonal nfo. Recpe of control factors Tme Add. Info. Geometry Spatal dstrbuton Temporal dstrbuton Addng emsson condtons Geographc. Info. SWF GWF Other nfo. Converson nto output geometry Requested area Output

10 10 Outlnes 1. Background 2. Obectve 3. Materals and Methods System functons System confguraton Emsson calculaton Spatal dstrbuton Temporal dstrbuton 4. Conclusons

11 System confguraton Emsson actvty (Database software) Emsson actvty data wth HSCC and LnkID HSCC LnkID +Data 3. Estmaton methods (Programmng functon) Estmaton of quantty and dstrbuton of emssons 2. Locaton (GIS) Input/Output Input/Output Method 2 Method 1 Predefned geometry gven unque number (LnkID) standard layers

12 12 The standard layers Grd type 80km-by-80km 10km-by-10km 5km-by-5km 1km-by-1km Prefecture Cty Basn Agrcultural vllage Sea Lake Rver Road Polygonal type Lnear type

13 13 Outlnes 1. Background 2. Obectve 3. Materals and Methods System functons System confguraton Emsson calculaton Spatal dstrbuton Temporal dstrbuton 4. Conclusons

14 Man steps of emsson nventory 14 tme Source A Source A Source B Emsson quantty 3. Spatal dstrbuton 4. Temporal dstrbuton Source B Emsson quantty 2. Chemcal and physcal specaton 1. Emsson by source

15 Two approaches to buldng an emsson nventory 15 Top-down approach Converson of emssons on large geometres bass nto emssons on smaller geometres bass Bottom-up approach Converson of emssons on small geometres bass nto emssons on larger geometres bass Layer 1 Whole Japan 80 Large geometres Layer 2 Grds Small geometres Layer 2 Grds Smaller geometres Layer 1 Whole Japan Larger geometres

16 16 Recpe for emsson calculaton The nventory recpe format applcable to the top-down and bottom-up approaches <Source> HSCC <Locaton> LnkID 25 <Method> Emsson Functon F1.exe <Varatons order> Input order 1 Fle name Actvty.mdb <Database> Table name Coal F1.exe 2 EF.mdb NOxEF F2.exe 1 Actvty.mdb Naphtha F2.exe 2 Actvty.mdb BurnRt F2.exe 3 EF.mdb NOxEF a1=15 Actvty F1[a1,a2].exe 30 a2=2 F1= F1= a1 a1 x a2 EF a2 a1=20 a2=0.5 a3=5 F2[a1,a2, a3].exe F2= a1 x a2 x a3 50

17 Man steps of emsson nventory 17 tme Source A Source A Source B Emsson quantty 3. Spatal dstrbuton 4. Temporal dstrbuton Source B Emsson quantty 2. Chemcal and physcal specaton 1. Emsson by sources

18 Specaton of pollutant 18 Emssons X Chemcal property A (0.3) (0.3) = 200 x 0.3 = 60 Pollutant [200] [200] Chemcal property B X = 200 x 0.6 = 120 (0.6) (0.6) Chemcal property C X = 200 x 0.1 = 20 (0.1) (0.1) Sum ( ) = 1

19 Man steps of emsson nventory 19 tme Source A Source A Source B Emsson quantty 3. Spatal dstrbuton 4. Temporal dstrbuton Source B Emsson quantty 2. Chemcal and physcal specaton 1. Emsson by sources

20 20 Spatal dstrbuton Characterstcs of calculaton method Emsson converson based on the spatal weghtng factor (SWF) SWF s defned by geometry on a layer. SWF s normalzed value n each standard layer, or the sum of SWF for all geometres on the layer equals 1. SWF represents the magntude of emsson actvty for a geometry. The cascade weghtng method It consders the relatonshp between geographcal resoluton and uncertanty of publc statstcs. It enables us to convert estmated emsson based on a layer to emsson based on other layer usng SWF for each geometry. The hybrd weghtng method Emssons from actual emsson survey, exstng emsson nventory and emsson report can be used as emssons at a geometry n preference to emsson estmated by the cascade weghtng method.

21 Uncertanty and resoluton 21 The number of Source category Types of statstcal data Many (Large) Uncertanty Geographcal level Uncertanty (%) Country 20 % decrease Cty 20 % decrease Grd Drect converson from country level nto grd level 1 x (1-0.4) = 0.6 (60 %) Lttle (Small) Low Geographcal resoluton Hgh Country Prefecture Cty Grd 2. Cascadng converson from country level nto grd level 1 x (1-0.2) x (1-0.2) = 0.64 (64%) Where, orgnal nformaton quantty s 1 Fg. Relatonshp between types, sector categores and geographcal resoluton of Japanese statstcs applcable as emsson actvty data

22 The cascade weghtng method 22 Low W Layer A 1. Converson of emssons on layer A nto emssons on layer B X = W SWF SWF m= m Uncertanty of SWFs Hgh X +1 Y h+2 Y h (SWF +1 ) (SWF h+2 ) (SWF h ) Y h+3 X (SWF ) Y h+1 (SWF h+3 ) Layer B Layer C (SWF h+1 ) 2. Converson of emssons on layer B nto emsson on layer C Y h = X = W SWFh SWF n= h m= n SWF SWF m SWFh SWF n= h W, X, Y: Emssons for each geometry SWF: Spatal weghtng factor : Geometry geographcally overlaps geometry n

23 Example of the cascade weghtng method 23 Spatal resoluton Surrogate valdty of spatal weghtng factor Low Country (100) Intal estmaton Hgh 0.4 Spatal weghtng factor 0.6 Pref. A (40) (40) Pref. B (60) (60) Cty a1 (16) Cty a2 (24) Cty b1 (12) Cty b2 (48) Cascade weghtng [Converson to pref. B] /( ) = 60 [Converson to Cty b2] /( ) = Grd a Grd a Grd a Grd a Grd b Grd b Grd b21(12) 0.09 Grd b22(18) [Converson to Grd b21] /( ) = 12 Hgh 0.08 Grd a Grd a Grd b Grd b23(18) Low

24 24 Spatal dstrbuton Characterstcs of calculaton method Emsson converson based on the spatal weghtng factor (SWF) SWF s defned by geometry on a layer. SWF s normalzed value n each standard layer, or the sum of SWF for all geometres on the layer equals 1. SWF represents the magntude of emsson actvty for a geometry. The cascade weghtng method It consders the relatonshp between geographcal resoluton and uncertanty of publc statstcs. It enables us to convert estmated emsson based on a layer to emsson based on other layer usng SWF for each geometry. The hybrd weghtng method Emssons from actual emsson survey, exstng emsson nventory and emsson report can be used as emssons at a geometry n preference to emsson estmated by the cascade weghtng method.

25 The hybrd weghtng method 25 W Layer A Y (1) when h = a h + X X a n n= h a 0 SWF ( 1 rh ) ( 1 r ) h n n= h SWFn n= h n a h (2) (r h ) X +1 Y h+2 Y h (SWF +1 ) value for extrapolaton to geometry h (1) (SWF h+2 ) (SWF h ) a h+1 (r h+1 ) Y h+3 X (SWF ) Y h+1 (SWF h+3 ) Layer B Layer C (SWF h+1 ) W, X, Y: Emssons for each geometry SWF: Spatal weghtng factor X r (2) when X a n = = n n= h + W = h n n= h a n SWF a n n= h r SWF n n n= h m= Y h SWF SWF = X a: Extrapolated emssons < 0 ( 1 r ) ( 1 r ) m n= h : Geometry geographcally overlaps geometry m SWFh SWF r: Rate of domnaton of SWF related to extrapolated emssons to total SWF of the extrapolated geometry n

26 Example of the hybrd weghtng method 26 Layer 2 Layer 3 Layer 1 Emsson 50 SWF: Spatal weghtng factor Emsson Emsson (30) (24) Emsson 100 Grd 1 Grd 2 Grd 3 Grd 4 (36) (10) Note In the case that extrapolated emsson s more than the total emsson to be allocated on the layer 2, the extrapolated emsson s deducted from the total emsson of the larger geometry n the layer 2 layers above layer 3. <Calculaton process> Emsson allocated to Grd 1 (100-10) 0.01/( ) = 30 Emsson allocated to Grd 2 (100-10) 0.008/( ) = 24 Emsson allocated to Grd 3 (100-10) 0.012/( ) = 36 Extrapolatng emsson of 10 obtaned by actual survey to Grd 4 Note Preferentally 10 s determned as emsson of Grd 4 wthn the total 100, assumng that the rato of SWF of extrapolated emsson to SWF of the total emsson at Grd 4 s 1.

27 Method of transformng spatal weghtng factors between polygonal geometres 27 Layer A A (X ) 1. Transformaton of SWFs SWF SWF ( A B B ) ( A B B ) A B = SWF B Ar / A B = SWF Ar + 1 B + / ( A B B ) Area A 1 proected onto B 1 : A 1 B 1 Layer B B (Y, SWF B ) A B A B +1 B +1 (Y +1, SWF B+1 ) X, Y: Emssons for each geometry SWF: Spatal weghtng factor : Geometry geographcally overlaps geometry Area A 1 proected onto B 2 : A 1 B 2 Ar(G 1 /G 2 ): Area rato of geometry G 1 to geometry G 2 2. Emsson x y of proected area A B x Y y = = X p= x p k = SWF y A B SWF A B 3. Emsson Y of geometry B k

28 Method of transformng spatal weghtng factors between polygonal and lnear geometres Transformaton of SWFs Layer A A +1 (X +1 ) A +1 B A B +1 A (X ) A B Lne A proected onto B : A B Lne A proected onto B +1 : A B +1 SWF SWF A B = SWF B Lr AB A s= / A B + 1 s B = SWF B Lr A / 1 B At B t= Emsson x y of proected lne A B + 1 Layer B B (Y, SWF B ) B +1 (Y +1, SWF B+1 ) x y = X k = SWF A B SWF A B k X, Y: Emssons for each geometry SWF: Spatal weghtng factor : Geometry geographcally overlaps geometry Lr(G 1 /G 2 ): Length rato of geometry G 1 to geometry G 2 3. Emsson Y of geometry B Y = p= x p y

29 Man steps of emsson nventory 29 tme Source A Source A Source B Emsson quantty 3. Spatal dstrbuton 4. Temporal dstrbuton Source B Emsson quantty 2. Chemcal and physcal specaton 1. Emsson by sources

30 30 Temporal dstrbuton Characterstcs of calculaton method Emsson allocaton based on the temporal weghtng factor (TWF) Fundamental methodology s the same as the US EPA s method (Ryan, 2003). TWF s defned by tme unt (year, month, week, day, hour). TWF s normalzed value n each tme unt, or the sum of TWF for each tme unt equals 1. SWF represents the magntude of emsson actvty for the tme.

31 Schematc graphs of temporal weghtng factors by tme unt 31 1 Year p a= 1 TWF a = 1 Month TWF m = 1 m= 1 Week 5 w= 1 TWF w = 1 P 12 Day of week Date TWF d = 1 TWFda = 1 d = 1 da= 1 5 Hour 24 h= 1 TWF h = 1 Sat Emsson on h hour of d day of w week n m month X m, w, d, h = X p TWF a TWF m TWF w TWF d TWF h 2. Emsson on h hour of da date n m month X m, da, h = X p TWF a TWF m TWF da TWF h

32 32 Outlnes 1. Background 2. Obectve 3. System functons System confguraton Emsson calculaton Spatal dstrbuton Temporal dstrbuton 4. Conclusons

33 Conclusons Ths study proposed methodologes to systematze emsson nventory wth GIS and database software. 2. Defnng geographcal poston by geometres on a layer of GIS s useful to systematze man procedures of emsson estmatons. 3. The cascade weghtng method and the hybrd weghtng method usng SWFs were developed to determne spatal emsson dstrbuton. 4. In our system, temporal emsson dstrbuton s calculated by the same method as the US EPA usng TWFs.

34 34 Thank k you for your attenton! Questons by slowly speakng and easy words! Kesuke Nansa nansa.kesuke@nes.go.p

35 Feld and mechansm studes 35 Pollutant Release and Emsson Transfer Regster (PRTR) Data Pressure ressure Chasss dynamo test Emsson Tunnel experment nventory Emsson experment Envronmental montorng data State tate Envronmental Envronmental fate model polluton level Hazard database Emsson test and nvestgaton Emsson model Drvng rvng force Exposure model Effect ffect Epdemology Emsson factor Actvty data Traffc census Energy data Chemcal statstcs GIS (Geographc nformaton system) Health rsk Ecologcal rsk Countermeasures Socal and economc data (Populaton, Producton) Data dsclosure Response Polcy optons Dscusson Fg. Schematc of the Vrtual World