Leichtman Research Group Research Notes

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1 4Q 2018 Leichtman Research Group Research Notes Actionable Research on the Broadband, Media & Entertainment Industries In this issue: An Evolving Internet A An Evolving Internet 83% of U.S. Households Get an Internet Service at Home About 580,000 Added Broadband in 3Q 2018 Major Pay-TV Providers Lost About 975,000 Subscribers in 3Q 2018 Industry by the Numbers s highlighted later in these Research Notes, LRG s sixteenth annual study on Internet services in the U.S., Broadband Internet in the U.S. 2018, found that the percent of households that get an Internet service at home is virtually unchanged from five years ago. Yet, the ways that consumers use Internet services at home clearly continue to evolve. Among notable changes, the time that adults spend online at home has significantly increased in recent years. Online video use, particularly among younger individuals, is a key contributor to this change. The study found that adults ages 18+ that get an Internet service at home report spending 3.4 hours per day online at home; this is an increase from 2.4 hours per day in The increase in time spent online at home is most pronounced among younger individuals. Among those with an Internet service at home, ages report spending 4.2 hours per day online, up from 2.7 hours per day five years ago. Looking at some activities that adults with an Internet service at home perform online on a daily basis, there a few that have changed over time. These include: 61% of adults visit a social networking site daily up from 49% in % of adults listen to music online daily up from 22% in % of adults send an daily down from 62% in 2013 Yet, the online activity that has grown most dramatically in recent years is watching video online. Among those with an Internet service at home, 46% of adults watch video online daily, compared to 22% in 2013, and 12% in Related to the increased time younger adults spend online each day, watching video online is most common among younger individuals. Of those with an Internet service at home, 71% of ages watch video online daily, compared to 45% of ages 35-54, and 22% of ages 55 and above. Similar video trends are also seen among smartphone owners. Among those with a smartphone in their household (now at 84%, up from 62% in 2013), 38% report watching video on their phone daily. This is also skewed toward higher usage among younger adults with 65% of smartphone owners ages watching video on their phone daily, compared to 34% of ages 35-54, and 12% of ages 55 and above. However, the online video experience is not always ideal in the home or on a smartphone. Among online video users, 14% experience buffering or low-quality video while watching streaming video at home on a computer or a connected TV daily, 41% weekly, and 63% monthly 2019 Leichtman Research Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved 1

2 Among smartphone video users, 21% experience buffering or lowquality video while watching streaming video on their phone daily, 48% weekly, and 73% monthly Note that with an increase in daily video streaming there has also been a slight increase in those experiencing buffering or low-quality video daily (up from 11% at home and 17% on smartphones in 2017). When people encounter buffering or low-quality video, the majority of the time they stop watching the video. 59% that experience buffering or low-quality video on their phone stop watching the video most of the time, and an additional 26% stop watching some of the time 45% that experience buffering or low-quality video at home stop watching the video most of the time, and an additional 32% stop watching some of the time Video is clearly becoming a more common component of the online experience both in the home and on smartphones, but the increased use of Internet-delivered video also comes with new challenges. As consumers use of streaming video continues to evolve, so too will their expectations. 92% of adults ages watched video online or on a smartphone in the past month compared to 72% of ages 45-64, and 41% of ages % of U.S. Households Get an Internet Service at Home L eichtman Research Group, Inc. found that 83% of U.S. households get an Internet service at home, compared to 83% in 2013 and 76% in Broadband accounts for 98% of households with Internet service at home, and 81% of all households get a broadband Internet service an increase from 78% in 2013 and 57% in Among those that do not get an Internet service at home, 49% do not use a laptop or desktop computer at home. Internet at home non-subscribers also tend to be older (25% of ages 55+ are not online at home), and lower income (38% with annual household incomes <$30,000 are not online at home). These findings are based on a telephone survey of 1,153 households from throughout the United States and are part of a new LRG study, Broadband Internet in the U.S This is LRG s sixteenth annual study on this topic. Other related findings include: The most common reason for not getting an Internet service at home is a lack of perceived need (cited by 46%). This reason is followed by cost (cited by 17%), the ability to access to the Internet on a smartphone (cited by 11%), and availability issues (cited by 9%) 77% of adults access the Internet on a smartphone compared to 55% in % of households get Internet service both at home and on a smartphone compared to 51% in Leichtman Research Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved 2

3 9% of households get Internet service only on a smartphone compared to 3% in % of all households access the Internet either at home and/or on a smartphone compared to 86% in 2013 While households that only access the Internet on a smartphone have grown in the past few years, the percent of households that have an Internet service at home has remained similar to what it was five years ago. About half of those that do not get an Internet service at home do not use a computer. A related lack of need remains the most common reason for not getting an Internet service at home, rather than cost, availability, or access to the Internet on a smartphone. About 580,000 Added Broadband in 3Q 2018 L 30% of households with annual incomes <$30,000 do not use a laptop or desktop computer at home compared to 5% with annual household incomes >$75,000 eichtman Research Group, Inc. found that the largest cable and telephone providers in the U.S. representing about 95% of the market acquired about 580,000 net additional broadband Internet subscribers in 3Q 2018, compared to a pro forma gain of about 390,000 subscribers in 3Q These top broadband providers now account for 97.7 million subscribers, with top cable companies having 63.6 million broadband subscribers, and top telephone companies having 34.1 million subscribers. Findings for the quarter include: Overall, broadband additions in 3Q 2018 were 149% of those in 3Q 2017 The top cable companies added about 730,000 subscribers in 3Q 2018 compared to about 540,000 net adds in 3Q 2017 o Comcast added 363,000 broadband subscribers in 3Q 2018, the most net adds in a third quarter for Comcast since 2008 The top telephone companies lost about 150,000 subscribers in 3Q 2018 compared to a net loss of about 155,000 subscribers in 3Q 2017 o Telcos have had net broadband losses in each of the past ten quarters In the first three quarters of 2018, cable companies added about 2,165,000 broadband subscribers, while Telcos lost about 325,000 subscribers The broadband industry added about 150% as many subscribers in 3Q 2018 as in last year s third quarter. This quarter marked the first year-to-year quarterly broadband subscriber increases in a third quarter since 3Q Leichtman Research Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved 3

4 Major Pay-TV Providers Lost About 975,000 Subscribers in 3Q 2018 L eichtman Research Group, Inc. found that the largest pay-tv providers in the U.S. representing about 95% of the market lost about 975,000 net video subscribers in 3Q 2018, compared to a pro forma loss of about 410,000 subscribers in 3Q The top pay-tv providers now account for about 90.3 million subscribers with the top six cable companies having 47.1 million video subscribers, satellite TV services 29.9 million subscribers, the top telephone companies 9.1 million subscribers, and the top Internetdelivered (vmvpd) pay-tv services 4.2 million subscribers. Findings for the quarter include: Satellite TV services lost about 725,000 subscribers in 3Q 2018 compared to a loss of about 470,000 subscribers in 3Q 2017 o DBS net losses were more than in any previous quarter o Net losses for DIRECTV were more than in any previous quarter The top six cable companies lost about 245,000 video subscribers in 3Q 2018 compared to a loss of about 290,000 subscribers in 3Q 2017 The top telephone providers lost about 80,000 video subscribers in 3Q 2018 compared to a loss of 180,000 subscribers in 3Q 2017 o Net vmvpd adds in 3Q 2018 were fewer than in any quarter since their debut Traditional pay-tv services (not including vmvpd) lost about 1,050,000 subscribers in 3Q 2018 compared to a loss of about 940,000 in 3Q 2017 Overall, the top pay-tv providers lost about 975,000 subscribers in 3Q This marked the most net losses ever in a quarter for the pay-tv industry. Satellite TV services had more combined net losses in 3Q 2018 than in any previous quarter. These net losses were largely driven by corporate strategies focused on acquiring and retaining more profitable subscribers (as well as a programming carriage issue between DISH and Univision). A related emphasis on improving the profitability of the satellite TV company s Internet-delivered flanker brands reduced net quarterly adds in the segment, resulting in vmvpds not helping to mitigate overall pay-tv losses to the degree they had in recent quarters. 67% of households with annual incomes >$75,000 get a bundle of services from a single provider compared to 40% with annual household incomes <$30,000 Internet-delivered (vmvpd) services, Sling TV and DIRECTV NOW, added 75,000 subscribers in 3Q 2018 compared to about 530,000 net adds in 3Q Leichtman Research Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved 4

5 Industry by the Numbers Top Pay-TV Providers in the U.S. Cable Companies Comcast Charter Cox* Altice Mediacom Cable ONE Total Top Cable Satellite Services (DBS) DIRECTV DISH TV Total DBS Subscribers at end of 3Q ,015,000 16,628,000 4,035,000 3,322, , ,921 47,122,721 19,625,000 10,286,000 29,911,000 Net Adds in 3Q 2018 (106,000) (54,000) (30,000) (28,100) (15,000) (11,191) (244,291) (359,000) (367,000) (726,000) Phone Companies Verizon FiOS AT&T U-verse Frontier Total Top Phone 4,497,000 3,693, ,000 9,063,000 (63,000) 13,000 (29,000) (79,000) Internet-Delivered (vmvpd) Sling TV DIRECTV NOW Total Top vmvpd^ 2,370,000 1,858,000 4,228,000 26,000 49,000 75,000 Total Top Pay-TV 90,324,721 (974,291) Sources: The Companies and Leichtman Research Group, Inc. * LRG estimate ^ Internet-delivered does not include PlayStation Vue, Hulu with Live TV, or YouTube TV, which do not publicly report subscribers Company subscriber counts may not solely represent residential households Top pay-tv providers represent approximately 95% of all subscribers Top cable companies do not include overbuilder WOW with 412,800 subscribers Net additions reflect pro forma results from system sales and acquisitions, and reporting adjustments -- therefore, comparing totals in this quarter s Notes to prior Notes may not produce accurate findings 2019 Leichtman Research Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved 5

6 Top Broadband Internet Providers in the U.S. Cable Companies Subscribers at end of 3Q 2018 Net Adds in 3Q 2018 Comcast 26,872, ,000 Charter 24,930, ,000 Cox* Altice 5,040,000 4,096,300 20,000 14,200 Mediacom 1,260,000 9,000 WOW (WideOpenWest) 755,100 7,300 Cable ONE 660,799 6,923 Total Top Cable 63,614, ,423 Telephone Companies AT&T 15,746,000 (26,000) Verizon 6,958,000 2,000 CenturyLink^ 5,435,000 (71,000) Frontier 3,802,000 (61,000) Windstream 1,015,000 8,300 Consolidated^^ 781,912 (1,974) Cincinnati Bell^^^ 310, Total Top Phone 34,048,612 (149,474) Total Top Broadband 97,662, ,949 Sources: The Companies and Leichtman Research Group, Inc. * LRG estimate ^ CenturyLink only reported residential subscribers in 3Q LRG estimate including non-residential subscribers ^^ Consolidated includes a minor sale of a local exchange carrier ^^^ Cincinnati Bell does not include the acquisition of Hawaiian Telecom Company subscriber counts may not solely represent residential households Top cable and telephone companies represent approximately 95% of all subscribers Net additions reflect pro forma results from system sales and acquisitions, and reporting adjustments therefore, comparing totals in this quarter s Notes to prior Notes may not produce accurate findings 2019 Leichtman Research Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved 6

7 Leichtman Research Group, Inc. (603) Leichtman Research Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved 7

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