Four Steps to Help LTE Operators Prepare for 5G

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1 ovum.informa.com Ovum TMT intelligence Four Steps to Help LTE Operators Prepare for 5G Julian Bright Senior Analyst

2 CONNECTED CAR CONSUMER SERVICES: DATA MONETIZATION 3 2 FOUR STEPS TO HELP LTE OPERATORS PREPARE FOR 5G FOUR STEPS TO HELP LTE OPERATORS PREPARE FOR 5G 3 The promise of 5G Far from launching as a wholly new and commercially untried technology, 5G will carry over many of the attributes and features of today s evolving LTE networks. The opportunity to road test these attributes and features in a live, commercial LTE environment will mean that mobile providers can gain valuable experience in their implementation and performance characteristics, as well as an understanding of their benefits. For LTE operators contemplating the move to 5G, Ovum has identified four key areas that should be addressed as part of this transition: LTE network performance, network virtualization, new business models, and spectrum. As it evolves, LTE can provide a proving ground for the technologies that will underpin 5G, whether or not they have settled on a time frame for introducing 5G into their networks. Now is the time to consider how and where a raft of new technologies that are available to operators can be introduced to the network. The success of features such as network slicing will also be critical if 5G is to fulfill its promise to deliver a diverse set of use cases. The foundation for this will be network virtualization, a process that operators can start to implement at the core network level regardless of their 5G timescales. A number of anticipated business models for 5G, including enhanced mobile broadband, streaming video, virtual and augmented reality, and IoT, can equally be served by today s enhanced LTE networks. Building experience in these areas will be key to 5G s success. More efficient and flexible use of spectrum is becoming possible, including for those bands already being deployed for LTE. Experience in the use of unlicensed shared spectrum, including the introduction of technologies such as license-assisted access (LAA), is likely to prove invaluable in optimizing the 5G experience. Increased capacity, improved efficiency, and reduced latency have been accompanied by support for new spectrum bands and a broader range of connected devices and platforms: for example, with the addition of LAA and NB-IoT (see Table 1). Table 1: 5G performance parameters versus Progressive improvements to LTE network performance have already been achieved through measures such as carrier aggregation, and have continued with the introduction of LTE- Advanced Pro and the further enhancements embodied in 3GPP Release 13 and 14. LTE/LTE- Advanced LTE-Advanced Pro 5G Speed Bandwidth Connected devices Latency IoT battery life Up to 1Gbps 100MHz <100 per cell 10ms Minimal due to lack of power saving mechanisms 1 3Gbps 640MHz 50K per cell (NB-IoT) Up to 10Gbps connection 1000x higher bandwidth per unit area than LTE 10x 100x number of connected devices versus LTE 2ms 1ms end-toend round trip delay Up to 10 years (NB-IoT/eMTC) Up to 15 years (mmtc) However, increasing demand for faster speeds and higher aggregate capacity, and the desire to address a far broader set of consumer, industry, and enterprise use cases are driving the need for a more efficient network model. To meet this demand, 5G promises to deliver new services at scale, made possible by a level of performance well beyond the capabilities of 4G, the introduction of a virtualized network architecture, and the opening up of new spectrum bands.

3 4 FOUR STEPS TO HELP LTE OPERATORS PREPARE FOR 5G FOUR STEPS TO HELP LTE OPERATORS PREPARE FOR 5G 5 Step 1 pushing LTE performance up to 1Gbps Technology advances are closing the gap between LTE s performance capabilities and those envisaged for 5G. Gigabit LTE will be essential as both a stepping stone to 5G and a mechanism to ensure that fallback from a 5G coverage area is not too great a shock for the user. Getting closer to the 1Gbps threshold means taking full advantage of a range of technology options including carrier aggregation, enhanced modulation, and massive MIMO. Mobile operators can help to ensure that their network is 5G-ready by working with the existing RAN vendor to upgrade the radio access network and provide a 5G-ready platform, optimizing spectrum usage and network capacity with LTE by extending carrier aggregation, embarking on the progressive implementation of LTE-A Pro technologies, and considering implementing pre-5g massive MIMO/adaptive antenna technology in the LTE network. Telstra has already begun to roll out what it claims is the world s first commercial 1Gbps LTE network, working with vendors Ericsson, Qualcomm, and device provider Netgear. of control plane and user plane to provide flexibility and allow more efficient deployment of network resources, and starting migration of network and IT applications to the new common core where appropriate. Radio access network (RAN) Another important consideration is evolving the RAN toward a 5G model. This is a complex challenge that is best approached on a step-by-step basis. All of the major vendors have recently introduced new platforms designed to provide a performance uplift for today s LTE networks and to ease the path to 5G by being more easily upgradeable. These include Nokia s AirScale platform, Ericsson Radio System, and Huawei s 5000 series base station. Korean operator SK Telecom has implemented a cloud RAN model in cooperation with Nokia, in what is claimed to be the world s first commercial deployment. The approach, which SKT describes as a software-defined RAN, allows traffic to be scaled more effectively and network resources to be allocated across different cell sites according to demand. It also provides third-party access to the SKT network for users such as SMEs to develop their own applications. LTE support for future 5G architectures These virtualization measures bring the existing core and RAN architecture closer to a 5G model and help to enable new architectures such as multi-access edge computing (MEC) and network slicing. Both can be implemented in a 4G network, although network slicing is only possible with a more limited set of slicing attributes, and hence is likely to appear first as a 5G technology. MEC moves processing, storage, and management out to the base station or small cell, closer to the RAN edge, in order to support low-latency, on-demand, and optimized services. Network slicing uses virtual network technology to allow the establishment of multiple, logical networks on a common infrastructure, which can then be used to provide differentiated services over a future 5G network. The partitioning of multiple network slices can take place in both the core network and the RAN (see Figure 2). Step 2 network virtualization Figure 2: Slicing approach in a 5G network Layer Above all, 5G networks will need to be flexible, highly scalable, cost efficient, and energy saving. A major factor in achieving these goals will be decoupling of software smaller footprint, reduced costs, full feature support in the new virtualized environment, improved scalability and dynamic resource allocation, the creation of a Network Slice Layer and hardware functionality in the network through the implementation of network functions virtualization (NFV). Core network Many operators are already implementing aspects of NFV 5G-oriented service innovation platform, and support for future 5G services such as network slicing. The necessary steps to implement a virtualized core network include commencing the evolution to a next- (non-virtualized) in their networks, notably through the implementation of generation virtualized common-core platform capable virtual evolved packet core (vepc) network technology. The benefits of using a virtualized core include a of serving the full range of service capabilities (fixed and mobile) and access options, implementing the separation Resource Layer Resources/Network Infrastructure/Network Functions Source: NGMN Alliance

4 6 FOUR STEPS TO HELP LTE OPERATORS PREPARE FOR 5G FOUR STEPS TO HELP LTE OPERATORS PREPARE FOR 5G Step 3 new business models 5G promises to support a multiplicity of use cases, but there are three primary areas that it is expected to address - enhanced mobile broadband, ultra-reliable low-latency communications, and massive machinetype communications (see Figure 3). Operators should start to review these areas and the associated use cases and service scenarios, including both communications and IoT. 5G is expected to significantly enhance IoT, but in the current market and until such time as 5G networks Step 4 spectrum Figure 3: Three primary use cases for 5G Enhanced mobile broadband Wider bandwidths than LTE Uses spectrum above and below 6GHz Utilizes licensed and unlicensed spectrum Incorporates technologies such as massive MIMO Examples: 3D video/uhd video Rich media and entertainment Augemented reality begin to support IoT, pre-5g technologies based on LTE, such as CAT-M1 and NB-IoT, are the leading contenders as the basis for IoT services. Operators should start to explore these with a view to gaining a foothold in this expanding market and building experience in operating the kind of network required to support wide-area, low-bandwidth services, using the opportunity to build a customer base and explore potential use cases with industry verticals, and engaging in large-scale IoT initiatives such as smart grid/ smart city. 7 Initial spectrum choices for 5G will depend on the type of services an operator expects to launch with and its strategy for rolling out the network. Currently, the expectation in most markets is that this will be either enhanced mobile broadband or fixed wireless access and will use either mid-range bands such as C-band (3GHz 4GHz) or the higher bands such as mmwave and spectrum above 6GHz, primarily to target hotspots. In the US, T-Mobile has announced that it will use Ultra-reliable low-latency communications Supports ultra-low latency transmission (<1ms) Supports highly resilient communications with redundancy Reliable device-to-device communication Examples: industrial automation autonomous vehicles telemedicine the 600MHz spectrum that it won in the recent FCC spectrum auction for 5G as well as for LTE, and that it plans to start deploying the 5G network in The EU has also agreed that use of the 700MHz band for 5G across Europe should be coordinated by The decision whether to employ new or existing spectrum will depend on a number of factors. Points to consider include whether the band characteristics (available bandwidth, channel capacity, propagation and susceptibility to weather conditions, mobility support, etc.) match the kinds of services/rollout strategy under consideration; suitability and support for new 5G In parallel with network virtualization, the transition to a cloud-based network model, and the introduction of new capabilities such as network slicing, operators should begin to consider the opportunities this creates for new enterprise services. These include VPN and SD-WAN, as-a-service and hosted type offerings, augmented/virtual reality applications and services, and security. Massive machine-type communications (IoT) Evolves out of narrowband LTE (emtc/ NB-IoT) Low complexity, low energy Ultra-dense, small cell network model Eventually adds new waveforms and architectures Examples: smart grid smart cities health monitoring sensor networks technologies such as massive MIMO and 5G New Radio; and device support.

5 8 FOUR STEPS TO HELP LTE OPERATORS PREPARE FOR 5G FOUR STEPS TO HELP LTE OPERATORS PREPARE FOR 5G 9 In summary About Ovum LTE networks are evolving and setting the stage for the arrival of 5G. Now is the time for new technologies to be tested. However, it is important that operators consider some of the following points if they want to be ideally placed to take advantage of these technical evolutions. Aging equipment might need to be replaced or the network refreshed in order to accommodate the upgrades necessary to achieve gigabit LTE performance. Moving to a platform that is software-upgradeable to 5G will save time later. We provide authoritative data & forecasts, market research and analysis, bespoke consulting and end-to-end marketing services to help companies thrive in the connected digital economy. Ovum helps service providers and their technology partners create business advantage by providing actionable insight to support their business planning, product development and go-to-market initiatives. Visit ovum.informa.com to learn more. Network virtualization is integral to 5G. Beginning the migration to a cloud-based, next generation core-network platform is an initial step that can allow more efficient deployment of network resources while also enabling 5G-type features such as multiaccess edge computing (MEC) and network slicing. Building experience in new business models can start with LTE. For example, introducing a technology such as narrowband IoT (NB-IoT) can open up new revenue streams and build a customer base ready for 5G. International Offices Beijing Dubai Hong Kong Hyderabad Johannesburg London Melbourne New York San Francisco Sao Paulo Tokyo The key to efficient spectrum use is flexibility. Now that multiple radio access technologies can be supported within the same frequency bands, the options for repurposing existing spectrum resources are increased. Plan for 5G and consider the available bands below 6GHz as well as those above. To read the full report, contact us here: marketingdepartment@ovum.com Contact us ovum.informa.com marketingdepartment@ovum.com

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