Statistical Release Gross Domestic Product First Quarter 2012

Transcription

1 Statistical Release Gross Domestic Product First Quarter 2012

2 1.0 Economic performance Provisional estimates for the first quarter of 2012 show that the economy exped by 3.5 per cent over a similar quarter of The sluggish growth was largely on account of slowdown in activities of most sectors of the economy. This was the slowest first quarter growth since 2008 as shown in Figure 1. Transport Communication Wholesale Retail Trade are the only sectors that contributed significantly to the overall growth. The first quarter of 2012 was characterized by high inflation rates, high interest rates delays in the onset of the long rains. Inflationary pressure was primarily due to high oil prices, while the high interest rates were mainly due to the tightening of the monetary policy by the Central Bank. In addition to delay in rains, agriculture sector suffered severe frost in January, which mainly affected tea horticulture sub-sectors. Figure 1: GDP Growth in the first quarter Series Though growth of most sectors slowed substantially, a few sectors recorded notable improvements. The most remarkable improvements were realized in the Electricity Water, Transport Communication Agriculture Forestry sectors, which Kenya National Bureau of Statistics First Quarter 2012 GDP Release 2

3 respectively grew by 10.8, per cent in the first quarter of 2012 compared to 4.8, per cent, during a similar period in On the other h, Financial Intermediation Construction sectors registered the highest growth differentials as they slowed to growths of per cent, compared to expansions of per cent over this period respectively. 2.0 Sectoral analysis 2.1 Agriculture The sector recorded mixed performance in the first quarter of 2012 registering positive growth in farming of food crops a decline in production of industrial crops. Overall the sector exped by 2.3 per cent. The performance is an improvement compared to 0.2 per cent growth in the same period of Unpredictable rainfall pattern, in terms of timing, with varied intensity, partly contributed to the observed outcomes. Industrial crops, which mainly include sugarcane, tea coffee, recorded a decline of 5.3 per cent. The decrease in tea production from 85,169 tonnes in first quarter of 2011 to 72,476 tonnes in the same period of 2012, accounted for the entire decline in the sub-sector. Positive performance in coffee sugar industries mitigated the decline, though the effect on the overall growth was negligible due to their low weights in the sub-sector. Quantity of coffee sugarcane delivered by farmers for processing increased by per cent, respectively. Horticultural produce exped by 1.5 per cent mainly as a result of increased production of cut-flowers which exped by 6.8 per cent. However, the sector s performance was dampened by the decline in production of vegetables fruits. Export of cut-flowers exped from 27,731 tonnes to 29,610 tonnes, while export of vegetables fruits declined by per cent, respectively. 2.2 Manufacturing The sector grew by 3.8 per cent in the first quarter supported by strong expansion in the food manufacturing sub-sector, which grew by 14.4 per cent. Manufacture of beverages also accounted for a large proportion of the overall growth. Milk processing sugar production Kenya National Bureau of Statistics First Quarter 2012 GDP Release 3

4 are the main activities in the food sub-sector that registered a decrease, which was largely occasioned by inadequate input supplies. Output of Non-food manufactures contracted by 0.7 per cent, the lowest quarter-on-quarter growth since Reduced activity at the petroleum refinery significantly contributed to the contraction. Throughput of crude petroleum, an input into refinery, reduced by more than 50 per cent from 477,397 tonnes in first quarter of 2011 to 222,169 tonnes in the same period of Electricity water supply Electricity Water supply sector includes Electricity supply Water supply sub-sectors, out of which electricity supply component contributes about three quarters of the total value added in the sector. The sector in general recorded a growth of 10.8 per cent during the reference period compared to 4.8 per cent growth in the same period of Electricity consumption increased from 1,525 million KWh to 1,599 million KWh in the respective first quarters of The expansion translates to about 5 per cent growth in consumption. However, the production mix of electricity generated in the current period had an increased share of hydro generation reduced share of thermal generation. The change in production mix implies that more output per unit cost was generated, resulting in creation of higher level of value added consequently, the recorded high growth. 2.4 Transport Communication The sector exped by 5.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2012 compared to 4.8 per cent in The sector s improved performance was mirrored by increased consumption of light diesel, which rose by 13.6 per cent during the quarter under review, over a similar period in Increase in cargo hled at the port transit vehicle operators significantly boosted the sector s performance. However, there was a marginal decline of 0.2 per cent in the international visitor arrivals which impacted negatively to the sector s growth in the same period. The communication sub-sector remained vibrant on account of low call tariffs that have prevailed since the second half of Kenya National Bureau of Statistics First Quarter 2012 GDP Release 4

5 2.5 Construction The growth of the Building construction sector activities slowed registering a growth of 3.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2012 compared to 7.0 per cent in the first quarter in The constrained growth was reflected in cement consumption which increased by 3.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2012, compared to 16.2 per cent in the first quarter of The lethargic performance was mainly attributed to high cost of borrowing from the financial institutions. 2.6 Hotels Restaurants During the first quarter of 2012, the sector exped by 2.3 per cent, which was a substantially slower growth compared to 6.2 per cent recorded during a similar quarter of The slowdown in the sector was mirrored in visitor arrivals lower occupancy rates in hotels. 2.7 Financial Services The sector slowed significantly registering a growth of 3.8 per cent in the reference quarter compared to 12.8 per cent growth in the same quarter of Net foreign assets decreased from KSh billion in December 2011 to KSh billion in March Over the same period, extended broad money supply M3, increased marginally from KSh 1,514 billion to KSh 1,517.1 billion in March The marginal growth in money supply was on account of a 1.7 per cent increase in total domestic credit from KSh 1,505.1 billion in December 2011 to KSh 1,530.0 billion in March The Kenya Shilling exchange rate exhibited a relatively stable position during the quarter under review. In the equity market, the number of transactions declined to 24,801 in March 2012 from 39,531 in March The NSE 20 Share Index continued with a downward trend declining from 3,881 points to 3,367 points over the same period. Trends in the NSE 20 Share Index up to the third quarter of 2011 are shown in Figure 2. Kenya National Bureau of Statistics First Quarter 2012 GDP Release 5

6 Figure 2: Nairobi 20 Share Index (1966=100) Over the review period, the average interest rate on 91-day treasury bills declined marginally to in March 2012 but remained high compared to March 2011, when it stood at 2.77 per cent. The average weighted interest on commercial banks loans advances rose to per cent in March 2012, while interest rate on savings deposit rate remained low at 1.72 per cent, resulting in a wide spread of per cent. Trends in interest rates are shown in Figure 3. Figure 3: Interest Rates trends Kenya National Bureau of Statistics First Quarter 2012 GDP Release 6

7 3.0 Balance of payments Kenya s external sector statistics flows are summarized in Tables 3 4. Overall balance of payments position improved by KSh 26.8 billion, from a surplus of KSh 11.2 billion in the first quarter of 2011, to a surplus of KSh 37.0 million in first quarter of The movement follows growth in the capital financial account, from a surplus of KSh 57.8 billion in the first quarter of 2011, to a surplus of KSh 65.7 billion in the first quarter of The deficit in the current account widened from a deficit of KSh 76.4 billion in the first quarter of 2011 to a deficit KSh 81.1 billion in the first quarter of The deterioration in the current account was mainly as a result of a 20.8 per cent widening of the merchise account deficit. The Kenya Shilling appreciated against all major world currencies in March Against the US Dollar, the shilling appreciated by 1.5 per cent to exchange at an average of KSh per US Dollar in March 2012, compared with an average of KSh per US Dollar in March 2011, coming from an average high of KSh per US Dollar in September The balance of trade deteriorated to a deficit of KSh billion in the first quarter of 2012 compared to a deficit of KSh billion recorded in the same period in In the first quarter of 2012, exports earnings grew by 10.7 per cent to st at KSh billion in the first quarter of 2012 from KSh billion earned in the same period of Import bill grew by 14.9 per cent to KSh billion in the first quarter of 2012, from KSh billion recorded in the same period of During the first quarter of 2012, most of the imports originated from the Far East Asia, Middle East Asia European Union countries, accounting for 35.5 per cent, 26.3 per cent 13.9 per cent of the total import bill, respectively. Majority of Kenya s exports were destined for its traditional markets of COMESA, EAC European Union countries, accounting for 33.2 per cent 27.3 per cent 21.8 per cent of the total exports, during first quarter of Kenya National Bureau of Statistics First Quarter 2012 GDP Release 7

8 Table 1 Gross domestic product by activity Constant 2001 prices KSh. million Year Quarter Agriculture Fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity Construction Whole- sale Hotels restaurants Transport communic munication Financial intermediation forestry quarrying water retail trade ,798 5,751 5, ,698 27,751 35, ,095 15, ,317 45, ,926 6,249 5, ,953 27,288 37, ,361 17, ,306 47, ,423 6,181 6, ,673 29,769 40, ,754 20, ,845 50, ,354 5,363 6, ,291 31,341 43, ,044 13, ,615 51, ,431 5,565 6, ,060 30,397 49, ,460 18, ,994 55, ,586 5,713 6, ,263 33,335 51, ,942 19, ,181 60, ,697 1,613 1,284 28,093 6,935 8,282 24,024 5,113 28,630 11, ,209 1,054 1,284 28,919 6,879 8,506 25,184 3,034 28,139 11, ,727 1,429 1,433 28,539 6,964 9,600 27,502 3,850 32,590 11, ,165 1,655 1,334 30,147 6,973 9,013 29,385 3,575 32,958 11, ,627 1,669 1,287 30,026 6,754 9,042 27,249 5,207 33,993 11, ,544 1,110 1,327 30,237 6,763 8,992 28,661 3,383 33,269 11, ,982 1,515 1,441 31,027 6,805 9,746 32,711 4,802 35,541 11, ,772 1,956 1,499 31,663 6,967 9,869 29,741 4,503 33,503 12, ,894 1,640 1,392 31,736 7,118 8,671 29,935 5,510 36,942 12, ,909 1,152 1,568 32,630 7,559 9,946 32,024 4,712 38,836 12, ,878 1,552 1,614 33,060 7,525 11,181 35,733 5,475 40,969 12, ,742 1,837 1,699 33,247 7,567 10,606 34,063 5,116 40,098 12, ,097 1,413 1,466 31,963 7,737 9,125 33,361 2,784 36,948 12, , ,682 34,002 7,881 11,348 33,262 2,685 39,015 13, ,492 1,364 1,754 34,813 7,765 12,456 37,744 4,026 42,869 12, ,591 1,617 1,551 34,513 7,958 10,806 33,678 3,804 42,783 13, ,991 1,405 1,291 33,461 7,929 11,359 33,214 7,195 45,307 13, ,277 1,124 1,605 33,693 8,072 12,593 32,961 3,987 40,550 13, ,761 1,372 1,645 34,380 7,440 12,585 39,056 4,091 51,403 13, ,403 1,663 1,622 35,525 6,957 12,734 38,229 3,721 34,734 14, ,213 1,454 1,558 35,670 7,688 11,495 34,338 7,102 48,897 14, ,418 1,198 1,688 35,477 8,493 13,129 34,314 3,977 42,826 14, ,645 1,401 1,743 36,359 8,692 13,297 40,956 4,511 52,985 15, ,310 1,661 1,774 35,757 8,463 13,565 45,334 4,205 37,473 16, ,331 1,492 1,663 37,107 8,057 12,300 37,327 7,543 51,242 15, ,352 1,243 1,866 36,352 8,217 13,796 36,277 4,092 44,267 15, ,848 1,469 1,872 37,209 7,724 13,777 44,212 4,604 55,064 16, ,934 1,688 1,844 37,320 8,467 13,840 48,390 4,551 39,809 16, ,087 1,528 1,762 38,526 8,928 12,688 39,227 7,716 54,260 16,572 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics First Quarter 2012 GDP Release 8

9 Table 1 Gross domestic product by activity Year Quart er Real estate, renting, business services Public administr ation Educati on Other services FISIM All industries at basic prices Constant 2001 prices KSh. million All Taxes GDP at GDP, industries on market seasonally excl. products prices adjusted agriculture ,882 46,722 72,999 77,017-11,261 1,030, , ,143 1,175, ,447 45,974 73,188 79,980-11,835 1,088, , ,367 1,249, ,860 45,031 76,257 82,575-12,174 1,155, , ,855 1,336, ,503 45,317 80,771 85,120-10,484 1,168, , ,882 1,357, ,674 46,031 82,952 87,850-11,945 1,198, , ,117 1,394, ,089 47,085 86,651 89,772-11,260 1,266, , ,981 1,474, ,059 11,693 18,232 19,034-2, , ,262 34, , , ,695 11,658 18,247 19,165-2, , ,137 36, , , ,639 11,680 18,257 19,320-2, , ,297 36, , , ,489 11,691 18,263 19,498-2, , ,612 38, , , ,888 11,682 18,290 19,729-2, , ,474 38, , , ,889 11,605 18,232 19,915-2, , ,201 38, , , ,744 11,455 18,270 20,088-2, , ,974 42, , , ,925 11,232 18,396 20,247-3, , ,528 42, , , ,092 11,266 19,187 20,421-3, , ,132 43, , , ,783 11,447 18,984 20,569-3, , ,669 44, , , ,296 11,321 18,963 20,718-3, , ,020 46, , , ,689 10,996 19,123 20,867-2, , ,747 46, , , ,439 11,161 20,133 21,039-2, , ,583 46, , , ,960 11,420 20,211 21,193-2, , ,023 43, , , ,436 11,385 20,232 21,357-2, , ,403 50, , , ,668 11,352 20,195 21,532-2, , ,019 48, , , ,875 11,281 20,873 21,757-2, , ,503 47, , , ,318 11,494 20,646 21,916-3, , ,686 45, , , ,178 11,585 20,627 22,042-3, , ,327 50, , , ,304 11,671 20,807 22,134-3, , ,322 52, , , ,601 11,465 21,825 22,193-2, , ,651 50, , , ,529 11,745 21,628 22,317-2, , ,286 49, , , ,898 11,882 21,564 22,505-2, , ,424 53, , , ,062 11,994 21,634 22,757-2, , ,834 55, , , ,695 11,784 22,626 23,073-2, , ,000 55, , , ,942 12,060 22,680 23,311-2, , ,153 50, , , ,733 12,176 22,745 23,469-3, , ,628 58, , , ,517 12,250 22,822 23,548-3, , ,586 60, , , ,236 12,077 23,489 23,743-3, , ,727 55, , ,014 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics First Quarter 2012 GDP Release 9

10 Table 2 Gross domestic product by activity Percentage changes at constant prices 2001 Year Quarter Agriculture forestry Fishing Mining quarrying Manufacturing Electricit y water Construction Whole- sale retail trade Hotels restaurants Transport com- munic- ation Financial interme- diation Kenya National Bureau of Statistics First Quarter 2012 GDP Release 10

11 Table 2 Gross domestic product by activity Percentage changes at constant prices 2001 Year Real estate, renting, business services Education Other services FISIM All industries at basic prices Taxes on products GDP at market prices Quar- ter Public admi- nistration All industries excl. agri- culture GDP, seaso- nally adjusted Kenya National Bureau of Statistics First Quarter 2012 GDP Release 11

12 Table 3: 3 : Balance of Merchise Trade KSh Million Balance of Volume of Domestic Exports Re-Exports Total Exports Imports Year Period Trade Trade 2005 Q1 51, , , , (32,357.23) 168, Q2 52, , , , (62,795.35) 199, Q3 53, , , , (42,105.28) 170, Q4 51, , , , (45,411.84) 165, Q1 52, , , , (54,088.86) 172, Q2 53, , , , (70,928.45) 193, Q3 62, , , , (65,867.23) 201, Q4 59, , , , (79,630.17) 204, Q1 64, , , , (82,420.88) 219, Q2 65, , , , (76,963.93) 213, Q3 65, , , , (85,273.01) 222, Q4 65, , , , (85,711.01) 223, Q1 78, , , , (92,415.92) 258, Q2 77, , , , (83,080.98) 247, Q3 82, , , , (129,422.59) 306, Q4 84, , , , (120,807.42) 302, Q1 82, , , , (100,531.13) 275, Q2 76, , , , (107,116.84) 267, Q3 80, , , , (104,216.31) 281, Q4 83, , , , (131,288.82) 308, Q1 92, , , , (107,767.24) 305, Q2 91, , , , (134,081.88) 329, Q3 95, , , , (140,671.27) 343, Q4 105, , , , (155,072.79) 379, Q1 111, , , , (167,728.41) 403, Q2 117, , , , (184,118.55) 432, Q3 128, , , , (225,528.82) 499, Q4 125, , , , (227,259.75) 490, Q1 123, , , , (197,562.35) 459, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics First Quarter 2012 GDP Release 12

13 Table 4: Balance of Payments Ksh Million ITEM Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar 1. CURRENT ACCOUNT (29,794.26) (43,838.39) (44,612.27) (60,926.28) (76,440.18) (97,928.60) (133,512.19) (117,841.52) (81,116.80) 1.1. GOODS (107,767.24) (134,081.88) (140,671.27) (155,072.75) (167,687.81) (184,116.81) (225,528.82) (227,259.75) (197,562.35) Exports (fob) 98, , , , , , , , , Re-exports 6, , , , , , , , , Domestic exports 92, , , , , , , , , Imports (cif) 206, , , , , , , , , Government 2, , , , , , , , , Commercial 203, , , , , , , , , SERVICES 42, , , , , , , , , Credit 62, , , , , , , , , Debit (20,030.63) (18,212.13) (21,378.69) (33,672.87) (37,901.42) (45,356.49) (77,989.00) (30,984.61) (26,122.10) of which Travel account 6, , , , , , , , , Credit 11, , , , , , , , , Debit (5,334.82) (3,429.96) (2,845.41) (5,177.19) (4,331.64) (2,007.00) (5,269.61) (3,733.35) (2,916.35) 1.3. Income account 1, , , (657.63) 6, (724.08) (2,170.75) 1, (1,941.11) Credit 4, , , , , , , , , Debit (2,870.24) (3,345.08) (2,750.33) (2,443.28) (2,368.45) (2,210.80) (6,696.28) (5,545.84) (4,557.02) 1.4. Current Transfers account 33, , , , , , , , , Diaspora remittances 11, , , , , , , , , CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 4, , , , , , , , , Capital Account (capital transfers) 1, , , , , , , , , Financial Account net 3, , , , , , , , , Investments net (4,641.44) 41, , , , , , , Change in official Reserves 7, (4,128.81) (20,853.81) 3, (11,203.01) (385.82) 14, (24,524.48) (37,018.23) 3. NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS 25, , , (2,489.25) 18, , , , , Memorum items Gross Reserves 400, , , , , , , , , Official 289, , , , , , , , , Commercial Banks 111, , , , , , , , , End period exchange rate against US $ Average exchange rate against US $