NSP Software Summit: IMS: An Industry Perspective. Iain Gillott igillottresearch, Inc.

Transcription

1 NSP Software Summit: IMS: An Industry Perspective Iain Gillott igillottresearch, Inc Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice

2 Agenda Current state of the wireless markets Driving the move to content and applications Current status of IMS A day in the life of IMS example IMS role in Fixed-Mobile Convergence Looking forward March 2,

3 WW Mobile Subscribers (000s) 2,500,000 2,250,000 2,000,000 1,750,000 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000, , , , ROW Japan Asia Pacific Latin America Eastern Europe Western Europe North America March 2,

4 U.S. Cellular/PCS Subscriber Growth, Most people over 5 The years classic old, S-curve! not in jail The market have is a rapidly mobile reaching handset! maturity 72% penetration March 2, % 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Subscribers (M) Growth

5 North American Wireless & Mobile ARPU, $ % 90% $ % 70% $ % 50% $ % $35.00 Data ARPU Voice ARPU 30% 20% Content Transport 10% $ % Data becoming increasingly important Content drives data revenues, not transport March 2,

6 IMS Deployment Status Mixed to date Some operators pushing ahead with advanced services See IMS as a means to standardize future rapid service deployment Built business based on data and content Advanced handsets Others are holding back Cite concerns for business model See revenue as small percentage of revenues Believe business is voice-driven IMS will be deployed by major operators Some sooner than later Those that have deployed IMS will Be able to support advanced services sooner Move further down fixed-mobile convergence path March 2,

7 U.S. Substitution or Landline Replacement, Partial Replacers (Millions) 45% 80 Primary Landline Replacement (Millions) 40% 70 Second Line Replacers (Millions) 35% 60 30% 50 25% 40 20% 30 15% 20 10% 10 5% % March 2,

8 2004 Enterprise Wireless & Mobile IT Manager Survey, May 2004 Percent of Mobile Workers using Applications 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% High percentage of Sales using Low percentage of Field Force using Sales Customer Service Field Force Executives 0%-15% 16%-30% 31%-60% 61%-90% More than 90% Don t know March 2,

9 Type of Wireless Data Network 2004 Enterprise Wireless & Mobile IT Manager Survey, May 2004 Both WWAN and WLAN 58% Wireless WAN only (wireless data via a cellular/pcs network) 14% Wireless LAN only 28% March 2,

10 IMS/SIP Example A Day in the Life of After arriving back at his car at the airport, again having checked in wirelessly, Doug s smartphone alerts his of traffic delays and advises his of alternative routes. Back on the wide area data network, the network matches his location to local traffic information and forwards to him accordingly. Doug powers up his smartphone, which instantly registers his presence and location, and syncs to corporate server via the home broadband connection. Based on his calendar and scheduled appointments, the device will register his presence accordingly. Upon arriving at the airport, Doug s smartphone registers his location and connects to the airport WLAN service (and disconnects from the WAN). As he walks to the check in area, he is able to instantly print his boarding pass authentication is through the device and federated identity management While sending s, Doug gets an urgent Instant Message also supported by IP and presence. Doug meets a potential new hire for an interview. After the meeting, he Instant Messages his HR person to tell his how the interview went. He then has a PTT call with his colleague. Smartphone uses the public WLAN connection and then IM is over the IP connection. Registration is via federated identity management. PTT is via a VoIP connection on the public WLAN. At the meeting, Doug uses his smartphone to give the presentation. He is also able to video conference in his colleague - the smartphone registers as a guest on the customer WLAN and connects to a secure server on Doug s company LAN. The presentation is streamed over the WLAN to the smartphone and presented. The video conference is via the IP connection over the same WLAN connection. March 2,

11 Fixed-Mobile Convergence Business Model Three steps toward a true integrated business model Moving straight to an integrated business model without first going through the additional steps will more than likely lead to failure Technology is not the solution Step 1: Organization Step 2: Bundle Step 3: Integrated Network March 2,

12 Step 1: Organization Organize the company to deliver communications solutions by customer segment regardless of whether those customers are fixed or mobile Organizational issue, with direction coming from the executive suites and not from vendors or partners Must be an intent to provide fixed-mobile solutions it is an organizational goal, not a piece of hardware or software March 2,

13 Step 2: Bundle Offer a bundled service Exact bundle offered usually depends on the base services offered by the operator May require changes to the billing and OSS systems, depending on the age and complexity of such systems Bundles offered include integrated customer service, integrated call centers, a single bill for all services, marketing and advertising, and product development March 2,

14 Step 3: Integrate Networks Integrate networks and do things such as delivering mobile phone calls to consumers over their home broadband connections This type of service delivery necessitates a network that is based on an integrated IP network IP, IMS and SIP are required at this stage March 2,

15 Not just integrating voice Partnership between Mobile Operator and Cable MSO Sprint to offer fixed-mobile integrated services that allow the control of the cable TV and modem services directly from the mobile phone. For example, if a subscriber forgets to set Tivo to record a particular program, the Tivo could be started remotely from the mobile handset. Information could also be sent to the handset to advise the subscriber of upcoming programs or specials. Mobile Network operator Cable MSO Tivo Cable Modem March 2,

16 Looking Forward in North America Bundling common 3G services introduced 3G networks deployed New MVNOs increase service choices Landline substitution/replacement increases - Severe impact on LEC revenues Limited integrated services 3G services drive mobile market competition Converged services drive market competition True converged services deployed Point IMS applications (e.g. PTT) All new apps IMS-based Partial IMS deployments IMS in use by most large operators March 2,

17 Summary Is IMS being deployed today? Yes Will major mobile operators continue to deploy in the next few years? Yes Can the business models for IMS be supported? Yes Will IMS become a critical part of the infrastructure? Yes Will IMS support the move to fixed-mobile convergence? Yes March 2,

18 For additional information on: IMS - An Industry Perspective 65 Enabled by HP OpenCall March 2,