Mobile Telecom Building Connections
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1 Mobile Telecom Building Connections Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot January 2016
2 Teledensity in Pakistan Teledensity (%) Year (Fixed + WLL) Mobile Total Sep Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
3 Subscribers and Market share Cellular Subscribers (Number of Active SIMs) Period Mobilink Telenor CMPak Ufone Warid Total Subscribers 33,378,161 26,667,079 10,927,693 20,533,787 17,387, ,894, Share 31% 24% 10% 19% 16% 100% Subscribers 35,953,434 29,963,722 16,836,983 23,897,261 13,499, ,151, Share 30% 25% 14% 20% 11% 100% Subscribers 37,121,871 32,183,920 21,177,156 24,547,986 12,706, ,737, Share 29% 25% 17% 19% 10% 100% Subscribers 38,768,346 36,571,820 27,197,048 24,352,717 13,084, ,974, Share 28% 26% 19% 17% 9% 100% Subscribers 33,424,268 31,491,263 22,102,968 17,809,315 9,830, ,658, Share 29% 27% 19% 16% 9% 100% Subscribers 35,156,550 33,191,103 23,518,919 18,750,250 10,323, ,940,513 Sep-15 Share 29% 27% 19% 16% 9% 100% Decline in the subscribers owing to biometric verification of SIMs Mobilink - the market leader, despite decline in share. Increasing share of Telenor and CMPak. Continuous decline in the subscribers of Ufone and Warid. Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
4 3G/4G Subscribers Operator Technology Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Share in the total subscriber Telenor 3G 4,162, ,094 2,268,860 3,530,421 4,162,616 5,485,083 s 4.5% CMPak 3G 2,898, ,363 1,661,286 2,921,021 2,898,094 3,769, % 4G 105, ,242 31, , , % Mobilink 3G 3,656, ,000 1,795,549 2,860,079 3,656,345 4,909, % Ufone 3G 2,570,283 1,365,259 1,952,584 2,662,310 2,570,283 3,518, % Warid LTE , , % Total 13,392,466 3,692,742 7,680,521 12,071,553 13,498,677 18,040, % Sep-15 Telenor Mobilink CMPak Ufone Warid Shareof 3G subscribers in the cellular operator's subscriber base 16.5% 14.0% 16.0% 18.8% N.A. Shareof 4G subscribers in the cellular operator's subscriber base N.A. N.A. 0.9% N.A. 1.5% Share of 3G/4G subscribers as %age of total 3G/4G subscribers 30.4% 27.2% 22.0% 19.5% 0.9% Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
5 Cell Sites Growth 40,000 36,000 32,000 30,126 Total Cell Sites 35,889 33,920 31, % 37,576 10% 9% 8% 28, % 7% Slow growth due to maturity of cell sites 24,000 20,000 16, % 5.8% 4.7% 6% 5% 4% 12,000 3% 8,000 2% 4,000 1% - 0% Share 2013 Share Mobilink 8,593 23% 9,057 25% Ufone 8,291 22% 7,981 22% Mobilink owning the largest cell site network followed by Ufone. Telenor 8,179 22% 7,599 21% CMPak 7,514 20% 6,308 18% Warid 4,999 13% 4,944 14% Total 37, % 35, % Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
6 Broadband Subscribers by Technology Year DSL HFC WiMax FTTH EvDO Others Mobile BB Total ,722 49, ,616 5, ,194 1, , ,245 34, ,523 6, ,140 1, ,491, ,071 35, ,887 8, ,459 2, ,101, ,064,003 33, ,939 11,152 1,033,513 3, ,721, ,346,817 37, ,889 14,848 1,861,118 5, ,795, ,480,672 43, ,582 19,490 1,334,725 6,089 13,498,677 16,885,518 Sep-15* 1,563,321 43, ,284 20,549 1,273,184 6,160 18,040,854 21,193,281 *DSL, HFC, WiMax, FTTH, EvDo and others are As of August 15 After acquisition of 3G and 4G spectrum, wireless internet taken by the cellular operators Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
7 USD in mln During FY14, the total telecom investment increased by three times on YoY. 98% of this investment was made in cellular segment on account of planned acquisition of 3G and 4G spectrum and deployment of advanced telecommunication networks. After witnessing an foreign outflow in last two year, FY14 attracted FDI of USD 903mln 34% of the total FDI received by Pakistan in that period. Cellular LDI LL WLL Total , , , , ,816 Note: Investment are Provisional 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, (500) Telecom Investment Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (USD mln) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% (1,000) Total FDI 3,720 2,199 1, ,576 2,641 Telecom FDI/(FD Outflow) (361) (408) 903 Telecm FDI share in Total FDI 22% 17% 5% 0% 0% 34% -10% Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
8 Telecom Revenues (PKR mln) Cellular Local Loop LDI WLL VAS Total ,047 61,464 44,964 2,880 10, , ,761 58,342 34,195 4,978 7, , ,510 63,805 32,675 5,861 11, , ,145 80,661 38,572 5,617 3, , ,683 88,831 43,631 6,279 4, ,547 Note: Revenues are Provisional. Telecom Revenues (PKR mln) Pakistan s telecom revenue after witnessing a growth of ~6%, stood at PKR 465bln in FY14. Cellular mobile segment continues to have the largest share (FY14: ~70%; FY13: 71%). Cellular Local Loop LDI WLL VAS Total % 17.3% 12.6% 0.8% 2.9% 100% % 15.9% 9.3% 1.4% 1.9% 100% % 15.5% 7.9% 1.4% 2.7% 100% % 18.4% 8.8% 1.3% 0.8% 100% % 19.1% 9.4% 1.3% 0.9% 100% Note: Revenues are Provisional. Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
9 Applicant CMPak Mobilink Ufone Telenor Total Next Generation Mobile Services (NGMS) Results Winner in 2100 MHz Band Winner in 1800 MHz Band 2x10 MHz (USD 307mln) 2x10 MHz (USD 210mln) 2x10 MHz (USD 301mln) - 2x5MHz (USD 148mln) 2x10 MHz 2x5MHz (USD 148mln) - 2x30 MHz 2x20 MHz Proceeds received in FY14 (USD) 517 mln 301 mln 74 mln 74 mln 966 mln Ufone Telenor Total NGMS remaining payable 74 mln + LIBOR + 3% p.a. 74 mln + LIBOR + 3% p.a. 148 mln + LIBOR + 3% p.a. Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
10 Structure Few firms dominate the industry Oligopoly Price makers Mutually interdependent (react to rival s actions) High barriers to entry Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
11 Sales in PKR or Volumes Lifecycle Supply Surplus Demand 2G Growth stage owing to high competition and falling prices. 3G Preliminary stage owing to the growth potential available in the data services. Voice Stable demand and high supply 3G High demand potential and high supply Time Supply Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
12 Bargaining power of Suppliers Bargaining power of Customers Threat of Substitute Products High power of regulator for license approval Low as multiple supplier available in the market with similar nature of technology High due to low Cost of switching from one player to the other Low for Voice services due to portability as compared to Fixed landline High for broad band as PTCL has 80% share in the broadband services Threat of New Entrants Low owing to heavy capital investment Intensity of Competetive Rivalry High as shown by declining share of the major player eaten by the competitor Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
13 Subscriber in mln 1,400 1,260 1, Actual Subscriber Base - September 2014 Unique Subscriber Base - March % 135% 120% 105% % 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% - Total Connections Unique Subscribers Total Teledensity Unique Teledensity China India Indonesia Japan Pakistan Philippines Thailand Malaysia Australia 1, % 72% 101% 117% 73% 111% 143% 119% 129% 48% 36% 41% 92% 31% 50% 56% 54% 91% 0% According to GSMA, Unique subscriber is single individual that has subscribed to a mobile service and that person can hold multiple mobile connections. Unique teledensity considerably lower than total teledensity. Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
14 USD Minutes Average Minutes of Usage per Subscriber per Month Call Charges per Minute Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
15 USD Average Revenue Per User Per Month % 70% 60% 68% Data Revenue as % of ARPU 59% 50% 48% 47% 44% 40% 40% 37% 30% 20% 27% 21% 10% 0% Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
16 60% 50% EBITDA Margin - 3Q % 48.0% 46.7% 43.1% 42.6% 42.1% 40% 38.1% 35.4% 35.2% 33.5% 30% 20% 10% 0% Note: Pakistan EBITDA - Average of Mobilink, Ufone & Telenore Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
17 Snapshot As competitive landscape exists, average revenues per user (ARPUs) have yet to stabilize. Business potential in value added services is expected to provide impetus to revenue growth to the market players, though time-line is uncertain. Intense competition among players is expected to keep EBITDA margin under pressure. After acquisition of 3G and 4G spectrum, wireless internet taken by the cellular operators Structure Regional Comparison Snapshot
18 Bibliography 1. Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) : 2. PTA Annual Reports : 3. Cellular Operators Association of India: Analysts Rana Nadeem Unit Head Ratings nadeem@pacra.com Aisha Khalid Manager Ratings aisha@pacra.com Abdul Sami Senior Financial Analyst abdul.sami@pacra.com Contact Number: DISCLAIMER PACRA has used due care in preparation of this document. Our information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. The information in this document may be copied or otherwise reproduced, in whole or in part, provided the source is duly acknowledged. The presentation should not be relied upon as professional advice.
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