IS THE INTERNET MOBILE?

Transcription

1 International Telecommunications Society Asia-Australasian Regional Conference Perth, Australia June 2003 IS THE INTERNET MOBILE? MEASUREMENTS FROM ASIA-PACIFIC Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT) Opinions expressed may not reflect the views of the International Telecommunication Union or it members

2 Contents Introduction Advanced Asia- Pacific Economies Overview Indicators Usage Users Infrastructure Pricing Revenue Index Recommendations Some of the data is estimated or from 3 rd parties. When data only available for one operator, it is used as a proxy for entire economy.

3 Why measure? Mobile has passed fixed & Internet use growing A logical marriage? Non-voice mobile use growing Commercial / regulatory / social / analytical implications 1'500 1' World telephone subscribers, millions Fixed Mobile World Internet users, millions 1'330 1' Source: ITU.

4 What is Mobile Internet? or accessing Internet from a mobile network? Browsing Internet from a mobile

5 Overview of advanced Asia-Pacific mobile markets Mature Taiwan, China first economy in world to have more mobiles than people! Mixture of technologies Trendsetters in mobile data: Korea (Rep.) launched world s first CDMA2000 1x 3G network in October 2000 Japan launched world s first W-CDMA 3G network in October 2001 Taiwan, China PDC 39% HK, China Singapore Australia Korea (Rep.) Average New Zealand Japan Source: ITU. CDMA 30% Total = 155 million GSM 31% Mobile subscribers per 100 inhabitants, 2002 Mobile cellular subscribers by technology, advanced Asia- Pacifc, 2002

6 Text messaging Not mobile Internet Most intensely used non-voice mobile application Possible indicator of potential mobile Internet use Number of messages Penetration (i.e., % of subscribers that use it) Wide variation in region Definitions? (e.g., sent & received, junk SMS, etc.) Singapore Korea (Rep.) Japan New Zealand Australia Taiwan, China Hong Kong, China SMS per subscriber per month, Note: SMS = Short Message Service Source: ITU adapted from various reports.

7 Traffic: Minutes or Packets? Measure in two ways: Time (minutes of use) Volume (kilobytes) Few operators publish this data KTF (Korea, Rep.), Avg. monthly minutes of use (MOU), Voice Data 11 A M J J A S O N D DoCoMo (Japan), i-mode, KB/day/sub A M J J A S O N D Note: Data MOU is average connection to wireless data network regardless of charging system, time-based or packet-based. Source: KTF, DoCoMo.

8 Mobile phone Internet subscribers Subscribers browsing the Internet from their mobile phone (e.g., Wireless Access Protocol (WAP), i-mode) Japan Korea (Rep.) 45.0% 81.0% Subscribing to mobile Internet 40.0% 78.7% Japan Korea (Rep.) Singapore 7.4% Australia Taiwan, China New Zealand HK, China 4.8% 2.9% 1.4% 1.2% Mobile phone Internet subscribers as % of total mobile subscribers, 2002 Using mobile Internet Accessing paid content 44.1% 32.3% 29.0% 16.2% As % of total mobile subscribers, August 2002 Source: ITU adapted from various sources Source: ITU adapted from Nomura Research Institute & Korea Network Information Center

9 What is an Internet user? Internet users per 100 inhabitants, 2002 Taiwan, China Australia HK, China Japan New Zealand Mobile phone only 9.6 Internet access usage method, Japan, 2002 PC and mobile phone 43% Mobile phone only 22% Singapore Korea (Rep.) PC only 35% Source: ITU. Source: ITU adapted from Nomura Research Institute.

10 High-speed mobile (e.g., GPRS, CDMA2000 1x, W-CDMA) Infrastructure indicator Subscribers to high-speed mobile data services Coverage of high-speed mobile Internet network Comparability issues Not all high-speed networks same (GPRS, CDMA2000 1x, CDMA2000 1x EV/DO, W-CDMA) Some operators count handsets rather than subscribers A subscriber may not be using high-speed features Subscribers may be pay as you go CDMA 1xEV/DO W-CDMA stationary W-CDMA moving CDMA 1xRTT GPRS CDMA PDC-P GSM/PDC Theoretical data transmission speed kbps Source: ITU.

11 High-speed mobile Subscribers & Coverage Korea (Rep.) 51.1% 100% Japan 6.6% 80% 75 Singapore HK, China New Zealand Taiwan, China Australia 6.4% 2.7% 2.3% 1.6% 0.3% High-speed Internet subscribers as % of total mobile subscribers, % 40% 20% FOMA launch 0% Oct PDC service launch Mar FOMA outdoor coverage PDC outdoor coverage Years after the launch of service Source: ITU adapted from various sources. Source: ITU adapted from DoCoMo.

12 Mobile data revenue Most popular metric among operators with almost all publishing True mobile Internet use is often not separated from message revenues May reflect high prices rather than intensity of use Two basic indicators: Mobile data revenue as % of total mobile revenue Average Mobile Data Revenue Per User (ARPU) Japan Singapore Korea (Rep.) Australia New Zealand Taiwan, China HK, China 5.0% 2.9% 2.5% 13.0% 10.6% 10.0% 19.3% Mobile data service as per cent of total mobile revenue, 2002 Source: ITU adapted from various sources.

13 Mobile pricing Two ways of pricing: New Time (length of Zealand period logged on). Taiwan, Generally used for China low-speed access. Australia Volume (amount of data transferred). Generally used for HK, China high-speed access. Can also have a Singapore subscription plan or Korea $3.60 pay as you go. (Rep.) $5.23 $8.52 $8.07 $7.69 $13.19 One hour of WAP, circuit switch access, US$, 2003 Source: ITU adapted from various sources.

14 High-speed mobile pricing 1 Megabyte (MB) is approximately equivalent to: 250 s (of 200 words) 20 s with attachments 20 pages of spreadsheets 10 web pages Hong Kong, China Japan Australia Taiwan, China Korea (Rep.) New Zealand $3.90 $3.70 Source: Telstra Singapore $2.32 $5.78 $12.82 $12.46 $10.87 Highspeed mobile Internet pricing, per MB, US$, 2003 Source: ITU adapted from various sources.

15 Mobile Internet Index Which economy is doing best overall in mobile Internet? Helps to overcome limitations of different data by using a number of variables Indicators: Mobile to Internet Ratio SMS/sub/month Mobile telephone Internet users ratio High-speed mobile subscriber ratio Mobile data revenue ratio Mobile Internet Divide Korea (Rep.) Singapore Japan New Zealand Australia HK, China Taiwan, China Source: ITU Mobile Internet ranking Total score (Lower = Better)

16 Recommendations Agreement on standard list of mobile Internet indicators and definitions Government ICT agencies need to collect and disseminate the data (only Hong Kong, China and Taiwan, China publish limited mobile Internet statistics) National statistical offices should incorporate mobile Internet questions into ICT surveys If mobile is important, then why not PDAs and notebooks? If wireless important, then why not ? So should WiFi also be included as a mobile Internet indicator (e.g., number of users, number of hotspots)?

17 Mobile Internet user Internet enabled cell phone (WAP/GPRS-CDMA2000 1x) Coverage of high-speed network Mobile subscriber

18 HH Surveys % HH that use wireless to access Inet (mode of connection) HKG, (via PC), 0.2% Taiwan, 1% % HH using mobile phones to access Inet Taiwan: mobile phones, 9% % individuals that use cellular phone to access Internet (both PC and cellphone; only cellphone) HKG: WAP phone, 2.5% Japan: 14.8% via mobile phone only % of subscribers that use wireless to access Internet Taiwan: WAP and GPRS, 10%

19 Mobile Internet Data availability SMS Traffic Subscribers Infrastructure Revenue Pricing Surveys AUS HKG JPN KOR NZL SGP TWN Generally available at economy level (from telecom regulator) Available from at least one operator No primary data available. Estimated or secondary source.

20 What is Mobile Internet?

21 3G licenses Country Licenses Method Date awarded Amount (US$ m) ~ Australia 6 Auction (regional) Mar Hong Kong, China 4 Auction (pre-qualify) Sep * Japan 3 Beauty contest Jun-00 Free Korea (Rep.) 3 Beauty contest Aug New Zealand 4 Auction (regional) Jan Singapore 3 Auction (Cancelled)# Apr Taiwan, China 5 Auction Feb Note: ~ Total amount received for all licenses. Local currency converted at rate at date of license award. * Amount bid was HK$ 4.1 (US$ 0.5) million. In addition, licensees must pay minimum of HK$ 50 million per year or 5% of turnover. Amount shown reflects first five years. # Only one offer was made for each 3G spectrum right so licenses awarded to three bidders.