Wireless Internet Caucus. Wireless Metrics. Dr. Robert F. Roche CTIA-The Wireless Association. March 21, 2011

Transcription

1 Wireless Internet Caucus Wireless Metrics Dr. Robert F. Roche CTIA-The Wireless Association March 21,

2 Metrics Focus CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey Sample: US Wireless Carriers Measures: Voice, Data, SMS & Text, MMS, ARPU, Devices, Subscribers 2H2010 reported results reflect 95.5% of total estimated subscriber connections Review Survey Metrics Report on Latest Survey Results 2

3 Review Cross-Carrier Metrics Survey includes metrics related to: Revenues: Requests total data revenues, as well as: Total revenues from data-only plans using dongles or laptop-embedded modems for the six month period. Total revenues for data services on Smartphones and wireless-enabled PDAs for the six-month period ending. Total revenues from data service subscriptions for the six-month period. Traffic: measures such as Requests SMS / Text message (including IM) and MMS message volumes. Requests number of MB on the networks for the six month period. Usage & Capability measures such as: Requests number of data-capable devices; SMS-capable devices; web-capable devices; PDAs / Smartphones; and wireless-enabled laptops, netbooks, tablets, and wireless modems on networks. Request for number of machine-to-machine (M2M) units active on networks not currently reportable. 3

4 Six-Month & Annual Wireless Service Revenues INDUSTRY Total six-month industry revenues = $80.8 billion 2H10 up 5.4% from $76.7 billion in 2H09. Total 2010 annual industry revenues = $159.9 billion, up 4.8% from $152.6 billion for year DATA ONLY Total six-month wireless data revenues = $25.4 billion, up 15% from $22.1 billion in 2H09. Total 2010 annual wireless data revenues = $50.1 billion, up 20.8% from $41.5 billion for year

5 Six-Month Total Wireless Service and Data Revenues Thousands $90,000,000 $80,000,000 $70,000,000 $60,000,000 $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000,000 $10,000,000 $0 $24,645,365 $105, $27,820,655 $105, $30,905,721 $175, $34,410,514 $315, $36,707,086 $411, $39,801,101 $493, $41,384,171 $699, $46,239,922 $1,158, $49,275,671 $2,041, $52,845,539 $2,559, $55,689,208 $3,790, $57,849,013 $4,791, $60,450,669 $6,460, $65,006,156 $8,756, $67,887,668 $10,532, $70,981,636 $12,696, $72,728,764 $14,784, $75,355,406 $17,536, $75,848,319 $19,464, $76,703,534 $22,045, $79,109,620 $24,786, $80,820,028 $25,357, Total Wireless Industry Revenues Data Service Revenues 5

6 Annual Wireless Data Revenues Are Up 20.8% $60,000,000 $50,000,000 $50,144,011 $41,510,625 $40,000,000 in Thousands $30,000,000 $23,228,529 $32,321,149 $20,000,000 $15,216,735 $10,000,000 $8,581,783 $4,600,531 $0 $904,704 $1,858,

7 Wireless Data as a % of ARPU Trended 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 99.9% 99.8% 99.6% 99.6% 99.4% 99.1% 98.9% 98.8% 98.3% 97.5% 95.9% 95.2% 93.2% 91.7% 89.3% 86.5% 84.5% 82.1% 79.7% 76.7% 74.3% 71.3% 68.7% 68.6% 20% 10% 0% Non-Data ARPU Data ARPU 7

8 Traffic Measures increase year-over-year SMS / Text messaging (includes IM): Monthly volume of 187.7b up 23% year-over-year (from 152.7b) Six-month volume of 1.068T up 30% year-over-year (from 822.8b) Annual volume of 2.052T up 31.3% year-over-year (from 1.563T) MMS: Monthly volume of 4.3b down 15% year-over-year (from 5.1b) Six-month volume of 24.5b up 1.3% year-over-year (from 24.2b) Annual volume of 56.6b up 64% year-over-year (from 34.5b) Voice: Six-month volume of 1.104T down 1.4% year-over-year (from 1.119T), Annual volume of 2.241T down 1.5% year-over-year (from 2.275T) 8

9 Traffic Measures increase year-over-year Data Volume Six-month volume of MB on networks: billion MB, up 110% yearover-year from billion MB as of YE Six-month volume of MB from Smartphones / PDAs on networks: billion MB, up 304% from billion MB as of YE Six-month volume of MB from laptops, tablets, netbooks and wireless broadband modems on networks: 73.3 billion MB, up 26.8% from billion MB as of YE

10 Traffic Measures Monthly SMS / Text Traffic (includes IM) 200,000,000,000 Over 187 Reported billion Traffic messages Up 38% Year-Over-Year per month 180,000,000, ,000,000, ,000,000, ,000,000, ,000,000,000 80,000,000,000 60,000,000,000 40,000,000,000 20,000,000,

11 Traffic Measures Six-Month Texting Traffic (includes IM) 1,200,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 Reported Six-Month Traffic Grows 30% Year-Over-Year Almost 2.1 trillion text messages in 2010 Up 31% from ,000,000, ,000,000, ,000,000, ,000,000,

12 Traffic Measures Monthly MMS Traffic 6,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 Reported MMS Traffic in Final Month of Survey Down 15% Year-over-Year Over 4 billion MMS per month 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,000,000,

13 Traffic Measures Six-Month MMS Traffic 35,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 Reported Six-Month MMS Traffic Up 1.3% Year-Over-Year, but... Annual MMS of 56.6 billion Up 54% over ,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,

14 Semi-Annual Traffic Measures Voice & Data 2,500 Billions of Messages / Minutes 2,000 1,500 1,000 In latest 6 months: 1.1+ billion MOU billion text messages 24+ billion MMS , ,104 1,122 1,156 1,014 1,081 1,119 1,138 1, $53.78 $52.19 $50.70 $49.39 $50.01 $49.81 $50.14 $49.51 $49.87 $48.89 $48.37 $48.79 $ Semi-annual Voice Traffic Semi-annual Text Traffic Semi-annual MMS Traffic Total ARPU (including toll & roaming) 14

15 Available Annual Traffic Measures Voice & Data Minutes and Messages as a Measure of Wireless Usage 5,000 4,500 4,000 Excludes traffic generated by web-browsing, game-play, and content upload / downloads Billions of MOUs / Messages 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1, ,005 1,563 2,052 1, ,495 1,798 2,119 2,203 2,275 2, MOUs Text Messages MMS Messages 15

16 Total Reported MB of Traffic 6 Month Measures Total data traffic grew 110% year-over-year Billions December 2009 June 2010 December 2010 Six Month MB Volumes 16

17 Consumer Metrics Total Estimated Subscriber Connections 350,000,000 Connections = 96% Population Penetration 300,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 50,000, ,478, ,880, ,766, ,721, ,140, ,896, ,040, ,395, ,333, ,646, ,859,

18 Consumer Metrics Devices and Users Based on sequential questions: mm total reported subscriber connections (overall survey) mm SMS-capable devices (up from 238.4mm) on data survey respondents networks 270 mm data-capable handsets (up from 257mm) on data survey respondents networks 242 mm web-capable handsets (up from 238.4mm) on data survey respondents networks 18

19 Consumer Metrics Devices and Users Based on sequential questions: mm SMS customers (up from mm) on respondents networks mm MMS customers (up from mm) on respondents networks 78.2 mm Smartphones & PDAs (up from 49.8 mm) on respondents networks 13.6 mm wireless-enabled laptops, tablets, netbooks, & wireless modems (up from 11.9 mm) on respondents networks 19

20 Another View of Consumer Metrics Devices Based on sequential questions: mm total reported subscribers (overall survey) (302.8 mm Estimated total)(year-to-year change) 270 mm data-capable handsets (up 13.5 million=up 5.3%) mm SMS-capable devices (up 8.8 million=up 3.7%) 242 mm web-capable handsets (up 3.6 million=up 1.5%) 78.2 mm Smartphones & PDAs (up 28.4 million=up 57%) 13.6 mm wireless-enabled laptops, tablets, netbooks, & wireless broadband modems (up 1.7 million=up 14.2%) 96% 93% 85% 84% 27% 5% ALL Data SMS WEB Smart phones Laptops / modems 20

21 Other Metrics-related Observations Note, while we ask for the following categories of devices: SMS-capable devices Web-capable devices Data-capable devices Smartphones & PDAs Wireless-enabled laptops, tablets, netbooks, & wireless modems and Machine-to-Machine units [not reportable at this time] We don t ask for connected devices as such, thus our figures for the above subcategories won t necessarily square with any independently-reported connected device counts. 21