LATIN AMERICA TELECOMS MARKET: TRENDS AND FORECASTS BASED ON 2Q 2017 DATA

Transcription

1 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 2Q 2017 data REGIONAL FORECAST REPORT LATIN AMERICA TELECOMS MARKET: TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2017 BASED ON 2Q 2017 DATA JULIA MARTUSEWICZ -KULINSKA JANUARY 2018

2 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 2Q 2017 data About this report This report provides: a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the LATAM region as a whole and six key countries an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators. Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from our topic-led research programmes and our consulting division, as well as external interviews. In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling). For the complete data set, see the accompanying Excel file at RDDG0. Geographical Regions modelled: Latin America (LATAM) Countries modelled individually Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru REPORT COVERAGE Key performance indicators Connections Mobile Handset, mobile broadband, 1 IoT 2 Prepaid, contract 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G Smartphone, non-smartphone Fixed Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up Narrowband voice, VoBB DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other Voice traffic Fixed and mobile Outgoing minutes, MoU Revenue Mobile Service, 3 retail Prepaid, contract Handset, mobile broadband, 1 IoT 2 Handset voice, messaging, data Fixed Service, 3 retail Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other ARPU Mobile: SIMs, handset 1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data. Prepaid, contract Handset voice, data 2 IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only. 3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue. 2

3 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 2Q 2017 data Contents [1] 8. Executive summary 9. Revenue in Latin America will grow during the forecast period driven by data demand 10. Mobile handset data and fixed broadband will drive revenue growth in Latin America 11. Geographical coverage: The share of NGA will be lowest in Mexico, while the share of 4G connections will lag behind in Colombia and Peru 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in Latin America 13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison 15. Market context: The LATAM region will experience economic recovery but its effect on the telecoms sector will be limited 16. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries 17. Key drivers at a glance for each Latin America market 18. Market overview: The total revenue increase will continue, driven mostly by mobile handset and fixed broadband revenue growth 19. Mobile: Extensive data usage will result in a short-term ARPU increase but competition will limit its future growth 20. Mobile: Declining mobile connection prices have reduced the need for multiple-sim ownership 21. Mobile: Telecoms revenue will continue to grow despite pressure from competition and increasing market saturation 22. Fixed: Cable modems will account for more than a third of fixed broadband connections in LATAM 23. Fixed: Broadband penetration growth will slow down towards the end of the forecast period due to limited service affordability 24. Fixed: VDSL and fibre growth will be substantial but cable operators position on the FBB market will remain strong 25. Business services: Fixed and mobile dedicated business solutions will remain a vital revenue stream, but new services will drive revenue growth 26. IoT: The growth in demand for IoT connectivity will be significant, but related revenue growth will remain limited 27. Individual country forecasts 28. Argentina: The pace of service revenue growth will slow down in both mobile and fixed segments after Argentina: Mobile ARPU and FBB ASPU will continue to increase, but more slowly, as the inflation effect on revenue dwindles 30. Argentina: Mobile data usage will drive mobile revenue growth, and the fixed broadband sector will continue to expand 31. Argentina: Forecast changes 32. Brazil: Total telecoms revenue will decline slightly due to the decrease in fixed service revenue 33. Brazil: The strong decline in fixed voice ASPU will not be offset by the increasing fixed broadband revenue 34. Brazil: The biggest economy in the region is expected to expand further, but total telecoms revenue will not follow 35. Brazil: Forecast changes 36. Chile: The market will grow in both fixed and mobile segments 3

4 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 2Q 2017 data Contents [2] 37. Chile: Prepaid to contract migration will continue and mobile ARPU will grow 38. Chile: The country will lead fixed broadband penetration in LATAM by 39. Chile: Forecast changes 40. Colombia: After a short period of decline, the telecoms service revenue will grow again 41. Colombia: The number of cable modem and fibre broadband connections will increase, but fixed revenue growth will be limited 42. Colombia: A slower return to revenue growth will partly be caused by new fiscal reforms and a slower recovery in the energy sector 43. Colombia: Forecast changes 44. Mexico: The mobile user base will continue to grow throughout the forecast period, and the total revenue will return to growth 45. Mexico: The share of contract users will remain low despite a strong increase in LTE penetration 46. Mexico: The revenue growth will be driven by an increasing subscriber base in the fixed and mobile segments 47. Mexico: Forecast changes 48. Peru: Market growth will be driven by mobile handset revenue and an increasing number of connections 49. Peru: A strong 4G technology take-up and a growing number of mobile subscribers will help to stop the ARPU decline 50. Peru: Mobile revenue growth will continue at a slower pace due to intense competition in the data segment 51. Peru: Forecast changes 52. Methodology 53. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge 54. Examples of forecast input drivers 55. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1] 56. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2] 57. About the authors and Analysys Mason 58. About the author 59. Analysys Mason s consulting and research are uniquely positioned 60. Research from Analysys Mason 61. Consulting from Analysys Mason 4

5 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 2Q 2017 data List of figures [1] Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Latin America, 2012 Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, Latin America, 2016 Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Latin America, 2016 and Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America Figure 5: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2016 Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Latin America Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017 ), by country, Latin America Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2012 Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2012 Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2012 Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2012 Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Latin America (million), 2012 Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Latin America (USD per month), 2012 Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2012 Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2012 Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, Latin America, 2012 Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2012 Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2012 Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Latin America (USD billion), 2012 Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Latin America, 2012 Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2012 Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Latin America, 2012 Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Latin America, 2012 Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Latin America, 2012 Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Latin America, 2013 Figure 26: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Argentina (ARS billion), 2012 Figure 27: Mobile connections by type, Argentina (million),

6 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 2Q 2017 data List of figures [2] Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Argentina, 2012 Figure 29: Fixed connections by type, Argentina (million), 2012 Figure 30: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Argentina, 2012 Figure 31: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Argentina (ARS per month), 2012 Figure 32: Mobile data traffic per connection, Argentina (MB per month), 2012 Figure 33: Broadband connections by technology, Argentina (million), 2012 Figure 34: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Argentina, 2012 Figure 35: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Brazil (BRL billion), 2012 Figure 36: Mobile connections by type, Brazil (million), 2012 Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Brazil, 2012 Figure 38: Fixed connections by type, Brazil (million), 2012 Figure 39: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Brazil, 2012 Figure 40: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Brazil (BRL per month), 2012 Figure 41: Mobile data traffic per connection, Brazil (MB per month), 2012 Figure 42: Broadband connections by technology, Brazil (million), 2012 Figure 43: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Brazil, 2012 Figure 44: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Chile (CLP trillion), 2012 Figure 45: Mobile connections by type, Chile (million), 2012 Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Chile, 2012 Figure 47: Fixed connections by type, Chile (million), 2012 Figure 48: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Chile, 2012 Figure 49: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Chile (CLP thousand per month), 2012 Figure 50: Mobile data traffic per connection, Chile (MB per month), 2012 Figure 51: Broadband connections by technology, Chile (million), 2012 Figure 52: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Chile, 2012 Figure 53: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Colombia (COP trillion), 2012 Figure 54: Mobile connections by type, Colombia (million),

7 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 3Q 2017 data List of figures [3] Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Colombia, 2012 Figure 56: Fixed connections by type, Colombia (million), 2012 Figure 57: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Colombia, 2012 Figure 58: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Colombia (COP thousand per month), 2012 Figure 59: Mobile data traffic per connection, Colombia (MB per month), 2012 Figure 60: Broadband connections by technology, Colombia (million), 2012 Figure 61: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2012 Figure 62: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Mexico (MXN billion), 2012 Figure 63: Mobile connections by type, Mexico (million), 2012 Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Mexico, 2012 Figure 65: Fixed connections by type, Mexico (million), 2012 Figure 66: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Mexico, 2012 Figure 67: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Mexico (MXN per month), 2012 Figure 68: Mobile data traffic per connection, Mexico (MB per month), 2012 Figure 69: Broadband connections by technology, Mexico (million), 2012 Figure 70: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2012 Figure 71: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Peru (PEN billion), 2012 Figure 72: Mobile connections by type, Peru (million), 2012 Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Peru, 2012 Figure 74: Fixed connections by type, Peru (million), 2012 Figure 75: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Peru, 2012 Figure 76: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Peru (PEN per month), 2012 Figure 77: Mobile data traffic per connection, Peru (MB per month), 2012 Figure 78: Broadband connections by technology, Peru (million), 2012 Figure 79: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Peru, 2012 Figure 80a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores Figure 80b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores 7

8 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 2Q 2017 data Geographical coverage: The share of NGA will be lowest in Mexico, while the share of 4G connections will lag behind in Colombia and Peru Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Latin America, 2016 and 1 BRAZIL CHILE COLOMBIA ARGENTINA MEXICO KEY 4G/5G share in G/5G share in NGA share in 2016 NGA share in PERU Source: Analysys Mason 1 For a full list of countries modelled as part of the Latin America region, please see the accompanying data annex. Mobile connections exclude IoT connections. NGA share of fixed broadband connections is calculated as cable, VDSL and FTTP/B connections (that provide access speeds of 30Mbps or more) divided by the total number of fixed broadband connections. 8

9 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 2Q 2017 data CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY REGIONAL FORECASTS AND CROSS-COUNTRY COMPARISON INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY FORECASTS METHODOLOGY ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON 9

10 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 2Q 2017 data About the author Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. She has more than 14 years of research and telecoms industry regulations experience. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as the head of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications Market Analysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission. 10

11 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 2Q 2017 data Analysys Mason s consulting and research are uniquely positioned Analysys Mason s consulting services and research portfolio CONSULTING We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms industry: communications and digital service providers, vendors, financial and strategic investors, private equity and infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters, and service and content providers. Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces. We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges and opportunities that new technology brings. RESEARCH Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises. We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct access to analysts. 11

12 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 2Q 2017 data Research from Analysys Mason 12

13 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 2Q 2017 data Consulting from Analysys Mason 13

14 Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017 based on 2Q 2017 data PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN JANUARY 2018 Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Registered in England No Analysys Mason Limited All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.