ON World Inc. Emerald Plaza Center 402 West Broadway Suite 400 San Diego, California

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2 Entire contents 2018 by ON World. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. ON World takes no responsibility for any inaccuracies, completeness or adequacy of such information. ON World shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. No part of this report excerpt may be given, lent, resold, or disclosed to non-customers without permission. Reproduction or disclosure in whole or in part to other parties is permitted only with the written and express consent of ON World. This document is a free report excerpt. A full version of the report may be purchased directly from our website for an immediate download. If you need an invoice, please call or us at: research@onworld.com ON World Inc. Emerald Plaza Center 402 West Broadway Suite 400 San Diego, California Toll free (U.S.): International: ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved.

3 Executive Summary Executive Summary Narrowband Internet of Things (NB-IoT) has reached critical mass with announced deployment plans growing exponentially. Last year, the NB-IoT market was driven by a handful of operators, primarily in Asia and Europe. Today, U.S. operators Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile are fast tracking their NB-IoT development. By the end of 2018, most of the U.S., Europe and Asia Pacific will be covered by at least one NB-IoT network. Despite the early lead by unlicensed Low Power Wide Area (LPWA) networking technologies such as LoRa and Sigfox, the NB-IoT ecosystem is rapidly over taking them. Dual mode options have driven much of the initial NB-IoT market where both LTE-M, a higher bandwidth option that support voice and mobility and NB-IoT protocols are integrated into the same chipset. Lower chip costs, better performance and a roadmap that includes over-the air-updates, voice and mobility will ensure that NB-IoT overtakes LTE-M in the near term and Sigfox and LoRa over the next five years. Smart city applications such as metering, streetlight monitoring, waste management and parking solutions make up 80% of the announced NB-IoT applications to date. However, the number of NB- IoT applications is growing rapidly-- including solutions for logistics, healthcare, smart buildings, retail and wearable devics such as health monitors and smartwatches-- that will increasingly compete with short range wireless technologies such as Bluetooth and Zigbee. By 2025, there will be 1.3 billion LPWA connections worldwide and NB-IoT will make up over half by this time up from <5% in Figure 1: Global LPWA Connections & NB-IoT Penetration Rate ( ) 2,000 LPWA NB-IoT 1,000 Millions Source: ON World 2018 ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1

4 Executive Summary These numbers are predicated on overcoming the following current NB-IoT limitations: 1) high costs for RF modules, 2) early-stage standards, 3) network confusion, 4) complex network variations, 5) over the air updates 6) lack of mobile operations and 7) waiting on 5G. NB-IoT module prices are 4X too high to be able to reach hundreds of millions of connections that the mobile network operators are allocating. Enter IoT processor core market leader ARM that has integrated power amplification, SIM and front-end modules into their licensable NB-IoT technology. ARM s NB-IoT consortium is dedicated to driving down NB-IoT chip costs to less than $5. LoRa has emerged as NB-IoT s nearest competitor that will also capture a significant portion of the LPWA market in the next five years largely due its adaptability to serve different types of applications in private and public network deployments that are complementary to NB-IoT. Our analysis of nearly 100 LPWA network operators found that 1 in 4 are planning/developing NB- IoT networks today including most of the top tier mobile operators. Over half of the NB-IoT network operators today are from the Asia Pacific region. A few examples of NB-IoT network operators with varying stages of network rollouts include China Telecom, China Unicom, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom and its subsidiary T-Mobile, KDDI, NTT Docomo, Singtel, SoftBank, Sprint, Telecom Italia, Telefónica, Telia, Telkomsel, Verizon and Vodafone. Our phone interviews and analysis of hundreds of LPWA network operator announcements found that NB-IoT makes up about 40% of the these. The pace of activity has accelerated over the past 12 months and at the current rate the activity level will increase by 18X between 2016 and Figure 2: NB-IoT Activity ( ) Year Growth: 1800% est Source: ON World 2018 ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2

5 Executive Summary In this report we analyze the market opportunity, competitive threats and status of NB-IoT network rollouts and commercial deployments, based on 250 interviews by phone and online surveys as well as an exhaustive review of the NB-IoT value system. It includes market size forecasts ( ) for connected devices, annual unit shipments and breakdowns by market, application, technology, geography and equipment/services; the results from several surveys; an in-depth technology evaluation that compares NB-IoT to LoRaWAN and other LPWA technologies; and an in-depth analysis of the growing NB-IoT ecosystem. *The LoRa Mark is a trademark of Semtech Corporation or its subsidiaries. *LoRa Alliance and LoRaWAN are marks used under license from the LoRa Alliance ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3

6 Methodology Methodology/Scope This report covers the global market opportunity for NB-IoT networks, systems, chips/modules and services. In addition, we include the total addressable market for connected wireless sensing, tracking and control devices for each market segment (LPWA and others). Our methodology uses extensive primary research with hundreds of individuals across the whole LPWA/IoT value chain, an in-depth technology evaluation, analysis of 80+ markets/applications and a competitive analysis of 100+ companies. The major components of our research include the following: Data Collection/Investigation: 250+ surveys/phone interviews with IoT professionals, network operators, IoT platform providers, equipment manufacturers, component suppliers and other experts. Analysis of hundreds of financial, industry and technical reports. Segmentation: Geographies: Markets segments: Applications: Product segments: North America, Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Rest of World Utilities; Smart Cities; Industrial (Manufacturing, Oil and gas, Electric power, Water/wastewater, Construction/others), Agriculture and Logistics; Smart Buildings, Consumer and Others Energy/Metering, Lighting Controls, Safety/Security, Condition Monitoring, Smart tags/asset tracking, Others NB-IoT equipment (End nodes, base stations and associated software) and services (installation, maintenance, connectivity and value-added services) Competitive Forces & Technology Dynamics: Product segmentation, value chain and business model analysis Distribution channels, product availability and vendor strength Standards developments, technology adoption and emerging technologies Analysis of 100+ companies (offerings, pricing, partners, financials and potential for disruption/sustainability) Market Size Forecasts: Market data: Recent data is collected from vendors, suppliers and end users on unit sales, growth trends, applications, hardware/service pricing, distribution channels, etc. Market drivers: Analysis of the weighted driver impact for each solution/market. Projections: Using all the above, we create data models from a moderate and aggressive viewpoint. Breakdowns are by target market, application, product segment, geography and technology. Revenues are for end nodes, network equipment, and services. Verification: Forecasts are benchmarked with secondary sources and verified with market leading vendors and industry experts ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4

7 Executive Summary... 1 Methodology/Scope... 4 The Ecosystem... 5 The LPWA Value Proposition... 5 NB-IoT Network Rollouts Accelerating... 6 LPWA Network Operator Trends... 7 NB-IoT Network Analysis by Region... 8 Asia Pacific... 8 Europe North America Latin America, Middle East and Rest of the World The NB-IoT Value System The LPWA Market Opportunity Market Segmentation NB-IoT Markets & Applications Current Deployments & Pilots Utilities/Energy Smart Metering Distributed Energy Resources Smart Water Networks Smart Cities Streetlight Monitoring Traffic Management Parking Management Waste Management Geotechnical Sensing Environmental Monitoring Industrial, Agriculture & Logistics Smart Tags & Asset Tracking Smart Buildings Enterprise Services Smart Buttons Consumer IoT Bike Tracking Smart Homes Wearables ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved. i

8 Industrial IoT Survey Respondent Overview Wireless Sensor Networks Most Important Features Satisfaction with Current WSN Systems Future WSN Applications Adoption Inhibitors Innovation Areas Strategic Investments IoT Platforms Used Low Power Wide Area (LPWA) Networks LPWA Awareness LPWA Applications Product Development LPWA Channels Market Impact LPWA Disruption Future Projections Surveyed Organizations Technology Dynamics Summary NB-IoT (Cat-NB1) LTE-M (LTE Cat M1) LoRa(WAN) LPWA Standards, Technologies & Industry Alliances Cellular Based LPWA Technologies GPP LTE-M LTE-NB1 (NB-IoT) Non-Cellular LPWA Technologies Sigfox LoRa Alliance Weightless SIG ETSI s Low Throughput Networks (LTN) IEEE k (Low Energy Critical Infrastructure Networks) Other LPWA Technologies RPMA (Ingenu) Qowisio ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved. ii

9 Link Labs NB-Fi (WAVIoT) Telematics Wireless Telensa vmonitor (Rockwell) Other Long-Range Wireless & Related Standards Efforts Wi-SUN Alliance JupiterMesh IEEE ah (HaLow) Global Total Market Size Forecasts Methodology Global Connected WSN/LPWA Devices Global Connected LPWA Devices by Market Global Connected LPWA Devices, NB-IoT & Others Global Connected NB-IoT Devices, Moderate & Aggressive Global Connected NB-IoT Devices by Market Global Total NB-IoT Revenues by Market Global Total NB-IoT Revenues by Equipment & Services Global Total NB-IoT Units by Application Global Total NB-IoT Units by Geography Global Total LPWA Units by Technology Utilities Summary Value System Market Size Forecasts LPWA Connections Connected NB-IoT Devices Connected Devices by Market Revenues by Market Revenues for Equipment & Services Units by Geography Unit Shipments by Technology Smart Cities Summary Value System LPWA Connections Connected NB-IoT Devices Connected Devices by Market ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved. iii

10 Revenues by Market Revenues for Equipment & Services Units by Application Units by Geography Unit Shipments by Technology Industrial, Agriculture & Logistics Summary Value System Market Size Forecasts LPWA Connections Connected NB-IoT Devices Connected Devices by Market Revenues by Market Revenues for Equipment & Services Units by Application Units by Geography Units by Technology Smart Buildings Summary Value System Market Size Forecasts LPWA Connections Connected NB-IoT Devices Revenues for Equipment & Services Units by Application Units by Geography Units by Technology Consumer & Others Summary Market Size Forecasts LPWA Connections Connected NB-IoT Devices Connected LPWA Devices by Market Revenues by Market Revenues for Equipment & Services Units by Application Units by Geography Units by Technology ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved. iv

11 Competitive Landscape Components Segmentation Company Profiles IoT Connectivity, Device Management & Network Infrastructure Segmentation Company Profiles Devices, Systems & Platforms Segmentation Company Profiles Network Operators Company Profiles List of Figures Figure 1: Global LPWA Connections & NB-IoT Penetration Rate ( )... 1 Figure 2: NB-IoT Activity ( )... 2 Figure 3: Network Operators by LPWA Technology... 7 Figure 4: LPWA Network Operators by Geography... 7 Figure 5: NB-IoT Network Operators by Geography... 8 Figure 6: Total Potential WSN/IoT Connected Devices by Market Figure 7: Total Addressable WSN/IoT Chipset Shipments, Long Range & Short Range Figure 8: Most Common LPWA Target Markets Figure 9: Most Common LPWA Applications Figure 10: Global Smart Street Lights ( ) Figure 11: Parking Management, Smart Parking & Others ( ) Figure 12: Global Connected Bikes in Use ( ) Figure 13: Qualcomm s LTE IoT Connected Wearable Devices Platform Figure 14: Respondents by Industry Role Figure 15: Respondents by Job Position Figure 16: Respondents by Geographical Region Figure 17: Respondents by Targeted Industry Figure 18: Most Important WSN Features Rated Figure 19: Satisfaction with WSN Systems Figure 20: Planning Future/Additional WSN Figure 21: Planned WSN Applications Figure 22: WSN Inhibitors Rated ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved. v

12 Figure 23: Most Important IoT Innovations Figure 24: Most Important Strategic Investments Figure 25: IoT Platforms Used Figure 26: LPWA Adoption Status Figure 27: Awareness of LPWA Technologies Figure 28: Wireless Sensing/M2M Applications Requiring >1K Bytes/Day Figure 29: LPWA Most Likely Types of Applications Figure 30: LPWA Product Timeline Figure 31: Most Likely LPWA Channels Figure 32: LPWA s Impact by Market Figure 33: LPWA s Disruption on Existing WSN Technologies Figure 34: LPWA IoT Penetration Rate by Figure 35: Most Likely LPWA Technologies Figure 36: Global Connected WSN Devices, LPWA & Others ( ) Figure 37: Global Connected LPWA Devices by Market ( ) Figure 38: Global Connected LPWA Devices, NB-IoT & Others ( ) Figure 39: Global Connected NB-IoT Devices, Moderate & Aggressive ( ) Figure 40: Global Connected NB-IoT Devices by Market ( ) Figure 41: Global NB-IoT Revenues by Market ( ) Figure 42: Global NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services ( ) Figure 43: Global NB-IoT Units by Application ( ) Figure 44: Global NB-IoT Units by Geography ( ) Figure 45: Global LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others ( ) Figure 46: Global Connected Utility WSN Devices, LPWA & Others ( ) Figure 47: The Utility IoT/LPWA Value System Figure 48: Global Utility LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others ( ) Figure 49: Global Connected Utility NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Aggressive ( ) Figure 50: Global Connected Utility NB-IoT Devices by Market ( ) Figure 51: Global Utility NB-IoT Revenues Market ( ) Figure 52: Global Utility NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services ( ) Figure 53: Global Utility NB-IoT Device Units by Geography ( ) Figure 54: Global Utility LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others ( ) Figure 55: Global Connected Smart City WSN Devices, LPWA & Others ( ) Figure 56: The Smart City IoT/LPWA Value System Figure 57: Global Smart City LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others ( ) Figure 58: Global Connected Smart City NB-IoT Devices, Moderate & Aggressive ( ) Figure 59: Global Connected Smart City NB-IoT Devices by Market ( ) Figure 60: Global Smart City NB-IoT Revenues Market ( ) ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved. vi

13 Figure 61: Global Smart City NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services ( ) Figure 62: Global Smart City NB-IoT Device Units by Application ( ) Figure 63: Global Smart City NB-IoT Device Units by Geography ( ) Figure 64: Global Smart City LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others ( ) Figure 65: Global Connected Industrial/Ag/Logistics WSN Devices, LPWA & Others ( ) Figure 66: The Industrial IoT/LPWA Value System Figure 67: Global Ind/Ag/Log LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others ( ) Figure 68: Global Connected Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Devices, Moderate & Aggressive ( ) Figure 69: Global Connected Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Devices by Market ( ) Figure 70: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Revenues Market ( ) Figure 71: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services ( ) Figure 72: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Device Units by Application ( ) Figure 73: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Device Units by Geography ( ) Figure 74: Global Ind/Ag/Log LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others ( ) Figure 75: Global Connected Smart Building WSN Devices, LPWA & Others ( ) Figure 76: The Smart Building IoT/LPWA Value System Figure 77: Global Building LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others ( ) Figure 78: Global Connected Building NB-IoT Devices, Moderate & Aggressive ( ) Figure 79: Global Building NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services ( ) Figure 80: Global Building NB-IoT Device Units by Application ( ) Figure 81: Global Building NB-IoT Device Units by Geography ( ) Figure 82: Global Building LPWA Chipsets by Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others ( ) Figure 83: Global Connected Consumer/Other WSN Devices, LPWA & Others ( ) Figure 84: Global Consumer/Other LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others ( ) Figure 85: Global Connected Consumer/Other NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Aggressive ( ) Figure 86: Global Connected Consumer/Other NB-IoT Devices by Market ( ) Figure 87: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Revenues Market ( ) Figure 88: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services ( ) Figure 89: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Device Units by Application ( ) Figure 90: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Device Units by Geography ( ) Figure 91: Global Consumer/Other LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others ( ) ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved. vii

14 List of Tables Table 1: Asia Pacific NB-IoT/LTE-M Network Operators by Technology & Status... 9 Table 2: Europe NB-IoT/LTE-M Network Operators by Technology & Status Table 3: North America NB-IoT/LTE-M Network Operators by Technology & Status Table 4: The NB-IoT Value System Table 5: NB-IoT Market Segments & Adoption Drivers Table 6: LPWA Technologies Summarized Table 7: Global Connected WSN Devices, LPWA & Others ( ) Table 8: Global Connected LPWA Devices by Market ( ) Table 9: Global Connected LPWA Devices, NB-IoT & Others ( ) Table 10: Global Connected NB-IoT Devices, Moderate & Aggressive ( ) Table 11: Global Connected NB-IoT Devices by Market ( ) Table 12: Global NB-IoT LPWA Revenues by Market ( ) Table 13: Global NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services ( ) Table 14: Global NB-IoT Units by Application ( ) Table 15: Global NB-IoT Units by Geography ( ) Table 16: Global LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others ( ) Table 17: Global Utility LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others ( ) Table 18: Global Connected Utility NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Aggressive ( ) Table 19: Global Connected Utility NB-IoT Devices by Market ( ) Table 20: Global Utility NB-IoT Revenues by Market ( ) Table 21: Global Utility NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services ( ) Table 22: Global Utility NB-IoT Device Units by Geography ( ) Table 23: Global Utility LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others ( ) Table 24: Global Smart City LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others ( ) Table 25: Global Connected Smart City NB-IoT Devices, Moderate & Aggressive ( ) Table 26: Global Connected Smart City NB-IoT Devices by Market ( ) Table 27: Global Smart City NB-IoT Revenues by Market ( ) Table 28: Global Smart City NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services ( ) Table 29: Global Smart City NB-IoT Device Units by Application ( ) Table 30: Global Smart City NB-IoT Device Units by Geography ( ) Table 31: Global Smart City LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others ( ) Table 32: Global Ind/Ag/Log LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others ( ) Table 33: Global Connected Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Devices, Moderate & Aggressive ( ) Table 34: Global Connected Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Devices by Market ( ) Table 35: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Revenues by Market ( ) Table 36: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services ( ) ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved. viii

15 Table 37: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Device Units by Application ( ) Table 38: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Device Units by Geography ( ) Table 39: Global Ind/Ag/Log LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others ( ) Table 40: Global Building LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others ( ) Table 41: Global Connected Building NB-IoT Devices, Moderate & Aggressive ( ) Table 42: Global Building NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services ( ) Table 43: Global Building NB-IoT Device Units by Application ( ) Table 44: Global Building NB-IoT Device Units by Geography ( ) Table 45: Global Building LPWA Chipsets by Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others ( ) Table 46: Global Consumer/Other LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others ( ) Table 47: Global Connected Consumer/Other NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Aggressive ( ) Table 48: Global Connected Consumer/Other NB-IoT Devices by Market ( ) Table 49: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Revenues by Market ( ) Table 50: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services ( ) Table 51: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Device Units by Application ( ) Table 52: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Device Units by Geography ( ) Table 53: Global Consumer/Other LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others ( ) Table 54: LPWA Component Suppliers by Product Segment Table 55: LPWA Components Profiles Table 56: IoT Connectivity, Device Mgmt & Infrastructure Platforms by Product Segment Table 57: IoT Connectivity, Device Mgmt & Infrastructure Platforms Profiles Table 58: IoT/LPWA Devices & Vertical System Providers by Target Market Table 59: IoT/LPWA Devices & Vertical System Providers Profiles Table 60: (Select) NB-IoT Network Operators ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved. ix

16 ON World Inc. Emerald Plaza Center 402 West Broadway Suite 400 San Diego, California Toll free phone (U.S.): International callers: ON World provides business intelligence on Internet of Things markets. Our market research is used by Fortune 1000 companies, startups and investors worldwide. If you have any questions on the report, please call us or send us an at: 2018 ON World Inc. All Rights Reserved.

ON World Inc. Emerald Plaza Center 402 West Broadway Suite 400 San Diego, California

ON World Inc. Emerald Plaza Center 402 West Broadway Suite 400 San Diego, California Entire contents 2018 by ON World. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. ON World takes no responsibility for any inaccuracies, completeness