ASIA SHIPPING OUTLOOK

Transcription

1 OCTOBER 2016 ASIA SHIPPING OUTLOOK TPM Asia 2016 Mario O. Moreno, Senior Economist, IHS Maritime & Trade

2 Agenda Asia Shipping Outlook / October 2016 Asia US trade Asia Europe trade Asia Other trade routes Conclusions 2

3 Asia US Trade growing while facing great volatility 3

4 Asia US trade growing but facing significant volatility Peak quarter expected to perform no better than in prior 2 peak seasons Asia US TEU Trade (in millions) Quarterly, seasonally adjusted annual rate Source: JOC Insights 5.3% Asia US TEU Trade (Year-over-year percent change) 7.4% 7.5% 2.4% 5.9% 5.6% 0.2% Source: JOC Container Shipping Outlook. 0.0% 2.5% 7.2% 4

5 US housing market continues to boost gains in the Asia US trade Top-ranked furniture accounts for approximately 13% of total Asia-US TEU trade Top US Imports from Asia (YTD TEU change, Jan-Aug 2016) Furniture Plastic products Auto tires Fabrics Apparel, misc. Lamps & parts Auto parts Hardware, misc. Engines & parts Toys 20,847 16,891 11,839 11,186 8,893 8,053 7,842 4,587 4,233 77,832 Source: PIERS 5

6 China Vietnam Korea Japan India Asia Shipping Outlook China leading the gains for the 7 th consecutive year Asia US to expand 4.2% this year, with China accounting for half of the growth 2.16 Contribution to Asia-US TEU Imports Growth, 2016 (In percentage points) Source: IHS JOC Container Shipping Outlook % 4.4% 0.9% 0.3% Source: PIERS. China exports of major consumer goods to US YTD China is losing in exports of footwear and apparel to US, but gaining in furniture -1.8% -1.9% -3.4% -4.9% -7.2% Furniture Footwear Menswear 6

7 Asia US to keep the uptrend in 2017, with China leading the gains Further growth in consumer spending and home sales will support the trade Growth Forecast for Asia US TEU Trade Asia-US trade to expand 6.2% in 2017 and total 15.9M TEUs. 3.3% 5.7% 3.6% 4.2% 6.2% US real GDP to rise 2.4% in 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016, led by solid growth in consumer spending. Durables consumer spending to grow 6.4% after rising 5.3% in prior year. 1.5% F 2017F Source: JOC Container Shipping Outlook. Existing home sales to increase from 5.4M in 2016 to 5.5M in The US dollar going higher through the first half of

8 Asia-US trade forecast to pick up the pace in the next 5 years Growth not expected to return to pre-recession levels CAGR 10% Asia US Trade, in millions of TEU CAGR 3.0% CAGR 5.5% F17F18F19F20F21F Source: JOC Container Shipping Outlook. 8

9 Asia Europe Trade struggling to keep the rebound 9

10 Asia-Europe trade struggling to rebound Year to date, from January to June, the trade was up only by 1.3% Asia Europe TEU Trade Index (1Q2016=100) Index based on seasonally adjusted annualized rate Source: CTS Eurozone GDP growth slowed from 0.5% q/q in Q1 to 0.3% (q/q) in Q2 of 2016 as domestic demand faltered. Eurozone manufacturing PMI expanding but facing lower business and new export orders. Chemicals and related products leading the gains; textiles and apparel leading the losses. After 2 consecutive down years, Russia is now adding to trade growth. 10

11 Asia Europe to post further gains in 2017 with downside risks EZ forecast to lead gains while Russia s demand to stay on rebound mode -6.0% Growth Forecast for Asia Europe TEU Trade Asia-Europe trade to rise 3.4% in 2017 and total 13.5M TEUs a new peak. 1.2% 7.5% -3.7% 1.6% 3.4% F 2017F Source: IHS World Trade Service. Asia Shipping Outlook Eurozone (EZ) GDP growth forecast to slow from 1.7% in 2016 to 1.3% in 2017, partly due to Brexit spillover. The euro will likely be weak through the latter months of 2016 and during The weakened rouble has boosted the competitiveness of Russian manufacturing. 11

12 Asia-Europe trade forecast to perform better in the next 5 years Europe demand will improve as economic activity picks up the pace CAGR 15.5% 7 Asia Europe Trade, in millions of TEU CAGR 1.0% CAGR 4.0% F17F18F19F20F21F Source: IHS World Trade Service. 12

13 Asia Other trade routes Latin America, Africa struggling to increase demand 13

14 Asia South America to post modest growth in 2017 SA demand will struggle to improve given weak economic activity in the region Growth Forecast for Asia SA TEU Trade Asia Shipping Outlook 5.1% 2.2% Source: IHS World Trade Service 0.7% -6.0% -5.2% -2.6% F 2017F Brazil s economy is stabilizing. Chile, Peru, and Colombia will see modest growth, while Venezuela is in a full-blown economic crisis. 14

15 Asia Africa to rebound in 2017 after 2 consecutive down years Weak commodity prices discourage growth in Africa s import demand Growth Forecast for Asia Africa TEU Trade 8.0% 8.4% 2.2% 4.3% Source: IHS World Trade Service. -4.5% -1.8% F 2017F The Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region will experience more moderate growth prospects in light of low global oil and commodity prices. 15

16 Conclusions Asia-US lane forecast to outperform other major shipping routes. US peak quarter unremarkable this year, but stronger growth ahead as inventories levels stabilize. Asia-US trade forecast to pick up the pace over the next 5 years, but growth will not return to precession years. Asia-Europe trade to post further modest gains in 2017, reaching a new peak. Asia-South America and Asia-Africa routes expected to continue struggling for growth. 16

17 THANK YOU! Mario O. Moreno Senior Economist, Global Trade IHS Maritime & Trade (973) 17