The Future of the Internet Perspectives emerging from R&D

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1 The Future of the Internet Perspectives emerging from R&D Ulf Wahlberg Vice President Industry and Research Relations December 1, 2009

2 Five technological revolutions in 240 years IT & telecommunication Oil, mass production, automobile Steel, heavy engineering, steam ships Steam, coal, iron, railways The industrial revolution Source: Professor Carlota Perez Universities of Cambridge, Tallinn and Sussex

3 Impressive broadband growth 3000 Broadband subscription forecast Subscriptions (million) Fixed Mobile Source: Internal Ericsson Mobile broadband 80% of all subscriptions in 2013 Mobile Broadband includes: HSPA, CDMA2000 EV-DO, LTE, Mobile WiMAX, Other Fixed broadband includes: DSL, FTTx, Cable modem, Enterprise leased lines

4 Fixed data traffic Last mile access Fixed Internet traffic Fixed IPTV traffic Yearly Exabytes Yearly Exabytes Last mile access Unicast traffic Last mile access Mainly broadcast traffic Source: Internal Ericsson This slide contains forward looking statements

5 Access technologies - fixed Vectorized VDSL 10 GPON VDSL2 ADSL2+ GPON ~20 km 8 ADSL2 ADSL 1 Km 2 Km 3 Km 4 Km 5 Km 6 Km 7 Km Length, Km

Towards terabit transmission Status & assumptions 1T 1TbE 100G Network aggregation BW Driven by Internet usage 100GbE Bandwidth [b/s] 10G 1G GbE 10GbE Computing I/O BW Driven by Moore s Law 40GbE

6 Towards terabit transmission Status & assumptions 1T 1TbE 100G Network aggregation BW Driven by Internet usage 100GbE Bandwidth [b/s] 10G 1G GbE 10GbE Computing I/O BW Driven by Moore s Law 40GbE FE 100M First 100Gb Ethernet on routers in G DWDM deployment in 2010 Terabit standards and products possible in 2015 DWDM = Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing

7 100G+ research Technology toolbox Many technologies has to be used in next generation optical transmission systems

8 Reported mobile subscriptions By system standard, This slide contains forward looking statements 8000 Reported Subscriptions (million) Other CDMA Mobile WiMAX TDSCDMA GSM/GPRS/EDGE WCDMA/HSPA LTE Source: Internal Ericsson

9 This slide contains forward looking statements Mobile traffic, voice and data 30 Subscriber traffic in mobile access networks 25 Notebooks Yearly Exabytes Definitions: se note pages. DVB-H, Mobile WiMax, M2M and WiFi traffic not included Mobile PC Mobile Handheld Mobile Voice Source: Internal Ericsson Smartphones Phones

10 Traffic growth All networks Source: NetQB

11 HSPA offers true broadband today Part of 3GSM technology family LTE Advanced HSPA Evolution The Future of the Internet - Perspectives emerging from R&D 3G/HSPA 3G LTE High Speed Packet Access Long Term Evolution Target Peak rate 384 kbps 3.6 Mbps 7/14 Mbps 21/28/42 Mbps ~150 Mbps / Gbps 2013 Around 60 operators 1000 x Higher offer 7 Peak Mbps Rate user in speeds 10 years or higher today

12 Technology Evolution Broadband Capacity Last mile Bandwidth Fixed Mobile Capacity Multi-Access IP Edge Routers Edge 1Gbps 00Mbps 2000x 2000x FTTH LTE 10Mbps 2Mbps 500kbps ADSL SDSL 1 st gen BRAS ADSL2+ VDSL Eth BNG VDSL2 GPON Next-gen Eth MSER HSPA EDGE 1 st gen GGSN HSPA Evol HSPA Evolved 50x SAE Gateway LTE Multi-Access Edge 50x 480Gbps 240Gbps 10Gbps

13 Beyond voice The telecom market is redefining itself PC Games Music Information & Collaboration Mobile Media TV Ericsson AB

14 Consumer electronics is going mobile Happening now Notebooks with HSPA Other devices will follow MID Navigation Car entertainment, Gaming Cameras 2011: more than 50% of all new notebooks

15 Internet of Things From households to individuals and devices Connected devices Laptop Smartphones Netbooks Fixed Broadband Fixed Telephony Ericsson AB 2009 Mobile Telephony

16 Towards 50 Billion Connections Fixed Mobile Today 4 Billion Subscribers Tomorrow 400 Million Household Full Service Broadband 50 Billion Devices Ericsson AB

17 Understanding ICT s carbon footprint ICT responsible for 2% of global CO2 emissions How can we reduce our own sector emissions? ICT key to reduce the other 98% of CO2 emissions How can we help reduce other sector emissions?

18 CO 2 per subscriber, Ericsson networks Annual CO 2 /subscriber [kg] 200 AMPS GSM WCDMA Year Mobile Subscription now 25 kg CO 2 per year Same as driving car for 1h

ICT contribution potential > Smart metering > Energy Internet > Digital society > Smart business 15-20% Global Carbon Emission 2007 Energy supply Industry 26% 19% >

19 ICT contribution potential > Smart metering > Energy Internet > Digital society > Smart business 15-20% Global Carbon Emission 2007 Energy supply Industry 26% 19% > Facility management > Monitor & control Buildings Travel & transport Forestry 8% 13% 17% > Virtual presence > Smart transport Source: IPCC Agriculture Waste 49 billion ton 14% 3%

20 Ambient Sweden - a national project to secure and advance Sweden s positions with respect to the Internet of the future IVA is the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences A network of decision-makers A platform for influencing the development of society A promoter of knowledge transfer

21 Ambient Sweden Six focus areas: New opportunities for the private and public sectors Common platforms for services and infrastructure Development within schools and in working life Research and innovation Effective regulations and legislation International profiling Ambient Sweden 21

22 Communications value for society Individuals, businesses, and governments Industrial growth Entertainment Sustainable society Social Government efficiency Personal efficiency New business opportunities Enterprise efficiency

Enabling China 2.0. HÅKAN ERIKSSON Group CTO President Ericsson silicon valley. 48 pt. 30 pt

Enabling China 2.0. HÅKAN ERIKSSON Group CTO President Ericsson silicon valley. 48 pt. 30 pt e title 48 pt Enabling China 2.0 btitle 30 pt HÅKAN ERIKSSON Group CTO President Ericsson silicon valley Mobile Operators & countries Mobile operators and their proportionate subscriptions - End Q4, 2009