2016 Display component market review and 2017 projection

Transcription

1 2016 Display component market review and 2017 projection for IHS Technology Korea Display Conference Irene Heo, Principal analyst

2 2 Polarizer Two digit decrease in polarizer price Polarizer makers continue to be in red Demand of Non-TAC to be increased due to LCD TV enlargement Imbalanced Supply/Demand of polarizer and sub-films Concentration of polarizer manufacturing lines in China

3 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Area Price (US$) Polarizer revenue (Bil.US$) 3 Decrease in TV polarizer price has reached 20% % 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% % 7.7% 0.6% 0.2% 10% 6.5% 5.3% 5% 4.1% 1.7% 3.4% -2.2% 0% -1.9% -1.0% -2.8% -5% % % % -13% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0% % % -20% -25% -30% ASP TV area price ASP Q/Q TV Q/Q Revenue Revenue Y/Y Demand Y/Y Source : IHS Report Display Optical film market tracker

4 Panel average size (inch) Non-TAC adoption rate (%) 4 LCD TV enlargement and Non-TAC polarizer % % 28.5% % 23.4% 23.2% 19.7% 21.1% 19.3% 30.0% 28.0% 26.0% 24.0% 22.0% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 22.3% 25.0% 28.2% 77.7% 75.0% 71.8% 36.2% 63.8% 0% TV panel average size(inch) Non TAC adoption rate(%) TAC Non-TAC [Market share of PVA protection film usage] Acryl 16% Others 1% PET Acryl 5% COP 1% 6% Acryl 12% PET 3% Others 0% Compensation Film COP 21% TAC 62% Surface treatment TAC 88% Total COP 10% TAC 75% Source : IHS Report Display Optical film market tracker IHS Report Large-area display market tracker

5 Major panel maker s average TV size(inch) Non TAC adoption rate by panel maker (%) 5 Correlation between TV size and the adoption of Non- TAC polarizer % % 60% % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0.0 0% AUO BOE China Star Innolux Corp. LG Display Samsung Sharp AUO BOE CSOT Innolux Corp. LG Display Samsung Sharp Source : IHS Report Display Optical film market tracker IHS Report Large-area display market tracker

6 Polarizer capacity by region (Mil.sqm) 6 Concentration of polarizer manufacturing lines in China Investment plans of polarizer in China 250 Maker Location Film width (mm) Capacity (Km2/mo nth) MP Nitto Shenzhen 1, Sumitomo Wusi 1,490 1,400 Q3 17 SDI Wusi 2,260 1,700 Q LGC Nanjing 2,260 2,700 Q1 16 CMMT Kunshan 1, Q Kunshan 2,260 1,200 1Q 18 Sunnypol Shenzhen 1, Q Hefei 2,260 1,000 Q1 18 SAPO Shenzhen 1, Q2 17 Source : IHS Report Display Optical film market tracker Taiwan Korea Japan China

7 S/D in China (Mil.sqm) Worldwide supply/demand (Mil.sqm) S/D in Korea (Mil.sqm) 7 Imbalanced Supply/Demand of polarizer-by region % 9% 11% 13% 19% 29% 12% 3% 12% 21% Demand Supply Glut (S-D)/D -42% -38% -46% -47% -53%-52% -56% -54% -60% 35% 30% 25% 20% 14% 15% 12% 10% 5% 0% 0% -10% -21% -20% -20% -23% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% 60% 330% 40% 20% ~ 449% % 436% 449% 335% 367% 376% % 17% 18% 18% 21% 18% 9% 0% 3% -20% -21% -23% -26% 15% 15% 16% 39% % 14% % -26% -25% -26% -24% % -32% -40% -35% % -49% -55% -60% Demand Supply Glut (S-D)/D Demand Supply Korea Japna Tiawan China Worldwide Source : IHS Report Display Optical film market tracker

8 UV process supply/demand (Mil.sqm) UV capacity (Mil.sqm) UV capacity share by maker 8 Imbalanced Supply/Demand of polarizer-by UV lines % 22% 25% 45% SDI 9% 34% 36% 40% 35% 31% 30% 32% 32% 32% LG Chem. 25% 30% 20% UV capacity UV share Overall capacity UV share% 50% 15% 0% Sumito mo 26% Nitto Denko 35% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 42% 29% 39% 49% 75% Nitto Denko Sumitomo LG Chem. SDI BQM % 19% 12% 8% 8% 2% 16% 8% 21% 7% 31% 10% 15% 2% 27% 25% 15% 16% 18% 16% 14% 9% 16% 11% 26% 21% 17% 19% 20% 18% 18% 10% 21% 24% 14% 15% 16% 6% 12% 2% 16% 7% 20% 10% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 10% 10% 5% 0% 0% 0% - -5% Source : IHS Report Display Optical film market tracker UV Demand UV Supply UV Glut (S-D)/D Overall Glut

9 9 Display Driver IC Cost reduction - TRD, DRD, GOA High resolution Heat problem from DDIC Changes in bonding technology System on Film

10 Driver IC revenue (Bil.USD) Driver IC demand (Bil.Units) 10 Driver IC market forecast DRD and TRD will have a negative impact on the driver IC demand forecast, even though 4K products will grow Gate driver IC is expected to fall due to the increase in share of GOA. Almost small/medium panels use a single chip for driving % 80% 60% 55% 55% 58% 59% 51% 52% 49% 46% 45% 40% 20% % Total Small/medium Large Source IC Gate IC Source : IHS Report Display Driver IC market tracker

11 11 GOA double rate/tri rate driving structure DRD: One s-channel accepts two signal of g-channel. (S-ICs 1/2) TRD: One s-channel gets to control three sub pixels at the same time. (S-ICs 1/3) GOA is necessary for DRD or TRD due to DRD/TRD asks large number of Gate ICs. Conventional type, GOA DRD Structure TRD Structure Gate IC on panel Source : IHS Report Display Driver IC market tracker

12 12 Cost reduction of DDIC DRD + GOA and TRD + GOA are good ways to reduce costs. Panel makers are aggressively applying DRD + GOA and TRD + GOA for 2016 TV models. Chinese VA panel makers have an interest on TRD, so they are focusing on Samsung s TRD products. Cost reduction of DDIC Resolution Source pin Conventional GOA GOA+DRD GOA_TRD HD 1366 x = = = = = = = = 1 FHD 1920 x = = = = 2 4K 3840 X = = = = 4 8K 7680 X = = = = 8 The driver IC interfaces are based on faster standards such as USI-T and EPI. Source: IHS 2016 IHS Source : IHS Report Display Driver IC market tracker

13 Ratio of high resolution panel (over 4K) 13 4K Driver IC trends Demand for 4K panels will increase across many applications. Demand for driver ICs will increase accordingly. 4K TV demand is growing rapidly and will become a major panel application in Panel makers want to reduce the number of driver ICs necessary for a 4K panel. And it can cause the heat problem from driver IC. Solving the heat problem may be critical success factors. 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8% 14% 24% 1% 2% 2% 35% 54% 52% 49% 47% 44% 41% 11% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% LCD TV Mobile PC Desktop Monitor Mobile phone Source : IHS Report Display long-term demand forecast tracker

14 14 Driver IC for LTPS Notebook PC Driver IC for LTPS Notebook PC is as same as Smartphone Driver IC. Usually LTPS Driver IC one source channel supports RGB 3 colors. Some makers are trying 6 split driving for LTPS Driver IC. a-si 4K NotePC panel needs 960channels 12 source Driver IC. 6 split driving of LTPS requires only 2 chips. (12*0.8 = 9.6$ vs. 2*1.8 = 3.6$) a-si Structure Normal LTPS Structure LTPS 6 Split Structure Source : IHS Report Display Driver IC market tracker

15 15 Issues concerning heat problem from DDIC CPU Timing controller Driver IC Proposed solution Part Solution Driver IC package COF Special resin Special resin to absorb the heat is applied to the part of Driver IC after mounting DDIC on COF Structural modification To raise the thickness of Cu layer of COF can give DDIC package some space to emit the heat from Driver IC. Adoption of long COF can help to emit the heat from Driver IC through it s long body. Ultra low temperature COF Add layers like Al and Cu which has the heat sink function onto COF The heat sink film Very simple and effective, but expensive solution, some very large and expensive products for special usage like PID are adopting graphite sheet as role of the heat sink Source: IHS 2016IHS

16 TDDI demand (Mil.Units) 16 Touch embedded driver IC and TDDI Synaptics, FocalTech, and Novatek are TDDI chip vendors. Synaptics was the only supplier until Q2 16, One package two chips has been generally used. As of Q3 16, Single chip solution was introduced, and panel makers started to apply it aggressively. Accordingly, IHS has increased TDDI forecast as compared to Q % % 20.0% % 15.0% % 10.0% 225 8% 131 5% 5.0% % 0% 1% 0.0% TDDI Demand (Q2'16) TDDI Ratio TDDI Demand (Q3'16) Source : IHS Report Display Driver IC market tracker

17 17 Changes in bonding solution - Mobile phone Bonding technology of panel and DDIC COG Merit Able to connect DDIC to the panel glass without extra linking components Super slim light COF /COP Chips and modules can be miniaturized Able to folded and bended by the film s flexibility Demerit Requires sufficient space to place DDIC Increase in cost due to extra film Limitation on resolution Source: IHS 2016IHS [ Side view and bezel type by bonding technology ] DIC DIC DIC COF Conventional bezel Slim bezel Like bezel-less

18 18 Changes in bonding solution - TV Conventional bonding type TFT Color filter d DDIC PCB

19 19 components trend Polarizer Touch sensor

20 20 Three types of On-cell for flexible touch Current development trends are based on the on-cell for flexible type, but they can be further categorized into three types by manufacturing process On-cell for flexible touch Y-OCTA Integration with barrier Integration with Polarizer Cover lens Cover lens Cover lens Cover lens Polarizer Touch layer Polarizer Polarizer Polarizer Circular polarizing film Circular polarizing film Circular polarizing film Touch layer

21 21 Process comparison between Y-OCTA and Integration with barrier film Y-OCTA Overcoat Metal sputter for touch sensor Low temperature sensor patterning Integration with barrier film, Transfer method Carrier film Metal sputter for touch sensor Carrier film Sensor patterning Carrier film Transfer sensor pattern to barrier film Lamination barrier film on to TFE layer Integration with barrier film, TCTF solution ITO sputter on barrier film ITO patterning Transfer AgNW layer AgNW patterning Hitach TCTF** film AgNW patterning

22 22 For ideal flexible OLED solution Reducing the number of substrates used in OLED module is one of the most important factor for flexible display On-cell touch s stack up Coating polarizer Integration with Cover lens Pol-less Cover lens OCA TAC film PVA film TAC film Circular polarizing film TAC film Cover lens OCA CP Coated pattern of PVA+ Circular polarizing film Cover lens Coated polarizing layer OCA Antireflection Cover lens OCA Polarizer Total # of film substrates: 1~2 substrates Total # of film substrates: 0~1 substrate Total # of film substrates: 0~1 substrate

23 23 Thank you for your attentions