The Next Generation of Telecom. What does the future look like in 2030?
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1 The Next Generation of Telecom What does the future look like in 2030?
2 Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey 2030 Predictions
3 Futurist Speaker, Thomas Frey 2030 Predictions Over 80% of all doctor visits will have been replaced by automated exams
4 Futurist Speaker, Thomas Frey 2030 Predictions Over 90% of all restaurants will use some form of a 3D food printer in their meal preparations
5 Futurist Speaker, Thomas Frey 2030 Predictions We will see a growing number of highways designated as driverless-vehicle only Early adopters with cash think it is cool, Restricted driver, mandated by Public Safety Insurance Companies will mandate: -Senior Citizens -Speeders -DUI -Poor driving record -High risk drivers -14 to 25 Years old
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8 Futurist Speaker, Thomas Frey 2030 Predictions Over 20% of all new construction will be printed buildings
9 Futurist Speaker, Thomas Frey 2030 Predictions Over 50% of all traditional colleges will collapse, paving the way for an entirely new education industry to emerge &index=9&list=uuczel_vx3fdf3dseyfchkza Must Have Wired BB! Reliable Limitless capacity FCC Performance Net-Neutrality Cell & Satellite BB Wireless Unreliable Limited Capacity Data Caps FAP No FCC Performance Not Net-Neutral University of Phoenix s peak online student count was over 600,000
10 Futurist Speaker, Thomas Frey 2030 Predictions Traditional police forces will be largely automated out of existence with less than 50% of current staffing levels on active duty Technology and Drones used today! The Future: County Sharif + 4 Autonomous vehicles Use of Cell network and your home WIFI (LIKE NYC) Public Safety SSID
11 Futurist Speaker, Thomas Frey 2030 Predictions Traditional pharmaceuticals will be replaced by hyper-individualized medicines that are manufactured at the time they are ordered
12 Futurist Speaker, Thomas Frey 2030 Predictions Cable television will no longer exist
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14 These prediction have one thing in common? National IP-backbone network built on fiber (100Gbps 10 Tbsp.) Regional and national transport High Capacity, Reliable, last mile IP network (500Mbps to 5Gbps) commercial and consumer markets distribution Ubiquitous, mobile IP network (10Mbps to 50Mbps) Sufficient for low bandwidth mobility and convenience They are all required DO NOT confuse High Capacity & Reliability with Mobility & Convenience
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16 Connectivity Speeds Available at BEK The observation made in 1965 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits had doubled every year since the integrated circuit was invented. Moore predicted that this trend would continue for the foreseeable future.
17 360 Degree Video Gaming HD Image 4K Image 1920 X 1080 MPEG Mbps 3840 X 2160 MPEG4 20 Mbps 50% of US households will be gaming at 20 Mbps within 18 months
18 Computer in the Cloud
19 Is the Cloud a Utility? What is the Cloud? Intellectual Property Bank? Broadband Network? Telecom Network? Data Train? Data Pipeline? Data Elevator? Common Carrier like UPS? Library? Data Bank? What is your role in the Cloud?
20 Paper Space VDI Will Cloud VDI make the personal computer obsolete within 5 years?
21 Regulatory Considerations for Rural Operators
22 Regulatory Considerations Public Policy for Rural Operators Need public policy to support networks long term Maintain affordable & Comparable services FCC Orders: 1996, 2011 and 2016, gutted support Satellite and cell internet are not comparable or Viable long latency - lower capacity poor reliability No Performance requirements NOT Net-Neutral The Rural Networks are falling behind!
23 Regulatory Considerations Rate Based Regulations in the Rural The utility network in the united states was built on the concept of Rate Base Regulation Encouraged investment Supported by Low interest loans Encouraged the creations of Coops to manage risk Rate based regulations have 3 principles: Allowed to recover investment Allowed a reasonable return Recover specified expenses Since the 1996 act and along with the transformational order in 2011 and now with the 2016 Order and FNPRM, the concept of Rate Base Regulation is going away. It is no longer based on investment and ROR The new rules encourage abandonment of these very rural areas for broadband services
24 Rural Telecom Carriers Footprint 95% of the North Dakota s landmass 7% of North Dakota population 40% of the US landmass 5% of US population There are 900 small RLECs Ubiquitous broadband infrastructure has become crucial to our nation s economic stability The distance-conquering benefits of broadband are more important in rural remote small towns! Why are the regulators restricting access to those who need Broadband? ($2B, frozen for the last decade) While doubling availability of Food Stamps? ($40B to $82B) Why Decrease the Funding for Rural BB which creates work opportunity while increasing the funding that can encourage dependency?
25 Two Very Different Business Model Urban Vs Rural Blue is served by Century Link Blue is served by Rural Operators Blue is served by Cable Operators
26 Two Very Different Business Model Rural Vs Urban Investment Levels per Household Urban $2,000 per household Urban Rural $15,000 per household Rural
27 Thank! The distance-conquering benefits of broadband are life altering in the rural! Derrick Bulawa BEK Communications
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