OECD and APEC since Vancouver 1995

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1 OECD and APEC since Vancouver 1995 Risaburo NEZU Senior Executive Fellow Fujitsu Research Institute 15 January 23 Honolulu Hawaii A ese disappeared from the world IT competition Source: Business Week, June 24, 22 Data: Standard & Poor s 1

2 25 2 Electronic machinery production JAPAN A GERMANY Source: OECD STAN 2 ICT equipment Exports (199-2) Computer equipment Communication equipment Electronic component Value in millions of current D and growth in percentages Exports EU EU EU ,5 34,476 54,685 18,854 29,521 27,558 4,119 66,46 94,131 4,63 1,933 2,68 5,614 6,94 8,16 9,541 26,44 69,179 13,826 27,668 7,1 14,678 43,27 5,348 16,33 36,393 55,972 Average annual growth (1995/9) (2/95) Source: OECD, ITS database, January 22 3

3 Value chain of IT equipments Integrated approach VS Modular approach Fabless (silicon valley) and Foundry (Taiwan) does everything at home Structure of value chain After-sales, R&D, D&D Service, Support Procurement Logistics Manufacturing TIME Source: Nikkei Business July 8, 22 4 Procurement of IT products / components from Taiwan by, ese and EU companies $1M JPN EU Total of top 1 Companies ' Total of top 5 Companies JPN EU '1 Source:adapted from Ministry of Economic Affairs ( Taiwan ) 5

4 World laptop computer shipments(21) by Taiwan 15.3 Rest of Total 27.3 m 46.3 world Other Taiwan 38.4 Quanta Source: Economist Jul 11, 22 If you own a Dell Laptop, there is a better-than- evens chance that it was made in Quanta s factory. If you have an IBM, Apple, Compaq- in fact, any big brand except Toshiba- there is a fighting chance that it was made only meters away under the same roof. Quanta, in other words, is a contract manufacturer-a company that designs and makes gadgets but leaves the marketing to companies with famous brands. 6 World Share of Personal Computer Total 123Mil Dell () Compaq () HP () IBM () Fujitsu (JP)/ Siemens NEC (JP) Toshiba (JP) Aiser (Taiwan) Gateway () Apple () Others (GER) Source; IDC 21 7

5 A quick look at internet server 3.% 8.3% 16.6% 27.8% IBM HP Sun Dell 16.6% 27.7% Fujitsu Others Source; IDC, Nikkeishimbun, September 22 8 Sales share for mobile phone, power of global standard 8% Source: gartner data quest 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 8% 1% 17% 42% Technology standard PDC Europe Union GSM Nikia Motorola Samsung Siemens Sony-Ericsson Matsushita NEC Alcatel Kyocera Mitsubishi 9

6 Fortune 5 Computer and Office equipment ( Mainframe ) IBM Sperry Honeywell NCR Burroughs Digital Equipment Control Data Pitney Bowes Wang Laboratories 1992 ( Mini-Computer ) IBM Hewlett-Packard Digital Equipment Unisys Apple Computer Pitney Bowes Compaq Computer Sun Microsystems Seagate Technology Wang Laboratories 22 ( PC ) IBM Hewlett-Packard Compaq Computer Dell Computer Sun Microsystems Xerox Gateway NCR Apple Computer Pitney Bowes 1 Top 1 ese IT companies 1981 Matsushita Hitachi Toshiba Mitsubishi Electric Nihon Electric Sony SANYO Fujitsu 21 Hitachi Sony Matsushita Toshiba NEC (Nihon Electric) Fujitsu Mitsubishi Source; Fortune Global 5, 11

7 Semiconductor product mix (2) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % JPN Europe Korea Toshiba Hitachi Fujitsu INTEL IBM Micron ST micro Philips Infenion Samsung Hyundai Mos memory Mi com. Logic Linear Digital CCD OPT Discrete HIC Source: Semiconductor Industry Research Institute 12 R&D Sales ratio (%) Motorola IBM Lucent Intel Microsoft Sisco Texas Instrument Dell Micron Matsushita Hitachi Fujitsu Sony Toshiba NEC 13

8 (% ) Organizational changes in firms Using ITs Active Responses In house paperless Information sharing Streamlining decision making process External paperless Slow Responses 12 Delegation of power Review transaction Speed-up of work process 2 Others Source: Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications 14 Percent of those who use the Internet Advertising and marketing purposes Making sales online After sales customer service and support Making purchases online Exchanging operational data with suppliers Exchanging operational data with business customers Formally integrating the same business processes with suppliers or other business partners Manufacturing Wholesale / Retail Distribution Banking & Insurance Source; University of California, Irvine 15

9 IT-Related Applications A Europe Asia CAD ERP SCM CRM KM EDI Source: International Survey of Corporate Management Strategies (METI) 16 Telecommunication sector 1985 privatization of telecom sector, creation of NTT, but real competition did not occur ( telephone tariff highest in OECD) 1997 real opening of local loop to competition Too much investment in optical fiber. 2 entry of Yahoo in ADSL business, resulting in explosion of BB with the lowest price in the world. New entries from other sectors (e.g. electricity) Forgotten ISDN, questionable future of optical fiber From wired to wireless LAN ( WiFi) I-mode is a success, but what comes after this? Will telecom meltdown happen in / /EU? 17

10 Broadband disappointing so far Asian countries lead the world, but no one makes money. Why are Europe and so slow? Does BB really matter? (No killer application but entertainment )? Why so expensive in? Why so cheap in? 3G mobile for what? Nobody will move on 3G soon? FOMA was disappointing in? Open spectrum? Should BB be universal service? 18 Including non-oecd countries 25 Subscribers per 1 inhabitants, June Other Cable Modem DSL Korea Hong Kong Canada Chinese Taipei Sweden Denmark Belgium United States Iceland Austria Singapore Netherlands Switzerland OECD Germany Norway EU Finland Spain France Estonia Portugal Australia Italy New Zealand United Kingdom Luxembourg Hungary Czech Republic Mexico Ireland Poland Turkey 19

11 5,, 4,5, 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Number of subscribers of ADSL in Others ' ' NTT Source: Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications 2 Rate of Dial-up and ADSL ($ / Month) dial-up (4H) ADSL Korea UK Germany Source: FRI 21

12 22 Two opposing views TOYOTA SONY Continuous Improvement 23

13 Challenges for IT companies 1. Disruptive/discontinuous nature of innovations. 2. Incorporating Asian production basis 3. Rapid turnover of IT companies. 4. Open access, open spectrum, open source. 5. Select and concentrate strategies. Can ese managers deal with them? 24 Thank you very much! For further discussion, please read Perspective and Strategies for ese Industry ( ) Risaburo NEZU Senior Executive Fellow Fujitsu Research Institute nezurisa@fri.fujitsu.com 25

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