The State of Mobile. EU5 Mobile Media Landscape and Trends. Alistair Hill, Sr. Analyst

Transcription

1 The State of Mobile EU5 Mobile Media Landscape and Trends Alistair Hill, Sr. Analyst June 10, 2010

2 Agenda comscore Mobile Data Mobile Media Trends Shifting Mobile Media Landscape Smartphones Summing Up 2

3 comscore Mobile Data 3

4 comscore Mobile Data Complexity and fragmentation of mobile market requires an array of data sources and methodologies for a 360 view MobiLens Market Tracking via Intelligent Online Survey Network Census Carrier Log Analysis GSMA MMM Site + App Census Mobile Web, App AdNet Tagging Mobile Metrix Smartphone Meter Panel Ad Metrix Mobile Plan Metrix Mobile Mobile Ad Tracking and Planning Tools 4

5 MobiLens comprehensive suite of measures MobiLens Database Demographics Age, Gender, Income, Education, Employment, Household Composition, more Subscription and Operator Information Current and Previous Operator, Length of Ownership, Length of Subscription, Monthly Plan, Bill Size, Data Plan Status, Satisfaction, more Messaging Chat, Personal , Work , Instant Messaging, Photo Messaging, more Games Played Games, Type of Games Played, Number Downloaded, Number Purchased, Subgenres, Method of Discovery, Method of Purchase, more Personalization Changed or Made Own Ringtones/Graphics, Purchased Ringtones/Graphics, Quantity, Ringback Subscriptions, more Music & Video Sideloaded Music, Downloaded Music from Operator, Source of Downloaded Music, Watched Broadcast TV, Watched On- Demand Video Social Media + UCG Accessed Social Network, Sent Photos to Phone, Sent Photos to Website, Captured Video, Sent Video to Phone, more Content Access Methods Category, Sub-category and Brand Access via Mobile Browser, Downloaded Application, or SMS 5

6 Mobile Media Trends 6

7 Mobile On Track to Eclipse the Desktop Number of Global Users (Millions) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Desktop Mobile Source: Morgan Stanley Research

8 % Market 34% of Mobile Phone Owners Browse the Mobile Internet, Use Applications or Download Content (Mobile Media Users) The number of people who are just using voice has declined 15% year on year 100% 90% Mobile Segments Q1 09 vs Q % 14% 80% 70% 60% 50% 55% 53% 40% 30% 20% 10% 28% 34% 0% Q Q Mobile Media = Connected Media (except SMS only) in MobiLens Mobile Media SMS (and not Mobile Media) Just Voice Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March Country: EU5- N= 69,031

9 % Market Growth of the Key Market Enablers Continues Two of the market enablers (smartphones and 3G devices) are now firmly entrenched in the market. The most important enabler, unlimited data plans, still has limited penetration in EU5 (6%) however did grow 71.8% year on year. In comparison 24% of US mobile users subscribe to unlimited data plans. 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Growth of Market Enablers 44% 34% 24% 18% 4% 6% Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Unlimited Data Plan Subscribers 3G Device Owners Smartphone Owners Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March Country: EU5- N= 69,031

10 % Female The Average Mobile Media User is 33 and 41% are Female Younger demographics create their own ringtones, use social networking services and listen to music (web 2.0 type services). Mobile Internet services (browsing, apps and ) skew 60-65% male. 55 Demographics of Mobile Media Activities 50 Made Own Ringtone Higher on chart = more female Further to right = older Size of bubbles = # of users 45 Listened to Music Played Games Ringback 40 Social Networking Purchased Ringtone Browser Mobile Media 35 Purchased Game Used App Unlimited Data Plan Median Age Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March Country: EU5- N= 69,031

11 % Market % Mobile Media Users Nokia Leads OEM Market for Device Owners and Mobile Media Users By Some Distance Although the iphone gains a large amount of hype, it still only represents 4% of total mobile owners in EU5 and 12% of all mobile media users. The number of iphone owners grew 172% YoY. * Total device owners market share in bold, mobile media market share numbers in red. 40% 35% OEM Market Share for Total Market and Mobile Media Users 37% 32% 35% 30% 30% 25% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 20% 18% 13% 12% Nokia Samsung Sony Ericsson 20% 15% 8% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 5% 0% 0% 0% LG Motorola Apple RIM Sagem Siemens Total Market Mobile Media 11 Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 2010 Country: EU5- N= 69,031

12 Shifting Mobile Media Landscape 12

13 % Market The Mobile Content Industry Flat / Declining Industry Personalization sector showing Mobile games audience is flat, but there s much more to the story (we ll get to that shortly). 6% Mobile Content Trends 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Ringtone Purchasers Graphics Phurchasers Games Purchasers Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March Country: EU5- N= 69,031

14 % Market A Quarter of EU5 Mobile Owners Browse the Mobile Internet There are over 17 million extra mobile Internet users in March 2010 compared to March 2009, 43% growth. Social networking users are showing the highest gains with 98% YoY growth. 12% are using IM and users are growing 37% YoY. 30% Mobile Internet Trends 25% 25% 20% 15% 10% 12% 5% Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apps (except native games) Mobile Browsing IM Social Networking Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March Country: EU5- N= 69,031

15 Communicating & Sharing Drives Mobile Web 40% search, in comparison, % of PC Internet browsers use search, depending on the country. The bars in yellow highlight the genres that relate to communicating and sharing with others, the dark red bars indicate news and weather genres. The mobile internet is as much about connecting with friends and family as it is about news and info. Top Genres for Mobile Browsing Movie Information Stock Quotes or Financial News General Reference Photo or Video Sharing Service Tech News Maps Work via Browser Entertainment News IM via Browser Sports Information Weather News Personal via Browser Social Networking Search 15.9% 16.5% 17.5% 18.3% 18.8% 19.0% 20.9% 22.6% 24.3% 27.2% 29.4% 30.7% 34.5% 35.2% 39.2% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% % Browsers Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March Country: EU5- N= 69,031

16 Google the Most Popular Mobile Internet Site in the UK comscore s GSMA Mobile Media Metrics (MMM) service shows Google gaining the most mobile internet users. Vodafone is the leading operator portal. Total Unique Visitors % Reach Average Minutes per Visitor Average Pages per Visitor Google Sites 5,793, FACEBOOK.COM 5,674, Vodafone Group 3,547, Telefonica Mobile Networks 3,271, Orange Sites 2,376, BBC Sites 2,146, Yahoo! Sites 2,141, Microsoft Sites 1,702, Deutsche Telekom 1,125, Nokia 1,062, Product: MMM Data: February Country: UK

17 Facebook Usage is Surprisingly Higher on Mobile Compared to PC mobile users spend 45 minutes on facebook per usage day; average 43 visits per month PC users spend 32 minutes per usage day; average 35 visits per month 17 Product: GSMA MMM & comscore Media Metrix Data: Feb 10. Country: UK

18 Unique Visitors Total Mins Sports Usage Peaks Between 3-6pm at the Weekend Sports usage is heavily influence by live events, especially football. The average Weekend day in February saw a peak in users and minutes at the time when most Premiership matches are taking place Weekend Mobile Internet Sports Usage by Day Part am 9-12noon 12-3 pm 3-6 pm 6-9 pm 9-12 pm 0 Uniques Mins 18 Product: GSMA MMM Data: Feb 10. Country: UK

19 Unique Users Sports Usage in the UK Mirrors the Football Season 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 Chelsea win 2006 Premier League title Premier league season starts Sports Usage - UK Manchester United 2007 win Premier League title Manchester United 2008 win Premier League title in exciting finish to season Manchester United 2009 win Premier League title 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 England Reach the world cup quarter final No summer football tournament. Sports users in June down 25% on average month in 2007 England fail to qualify for the Euro 2008 No summer football tournament No summer football tournament. Sports users in June down 15% on average month in 2007 Mobile Sport Booms as England Reach the??? 19

20 Unique Users Functionality of Content Determines the Access Method The type of content determines the popularity of an access method. For example news and information genres, such as news, are more popular via the browser, whereas genres that are more involved or more functional, e.g. Games and maps are better suited to applications. 8,000 Browser vs App by Content Genre 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 News Social Networking Maps Games via App via Browser 20 Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending April 2010 Country: UK - N= 15,567

21 % Market Mobile Games Purchasers Flat With so much hype around mobile applications it is a shock that mobile games purchasers are flat. 3% Mobile Content Trends 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Games Purchasers Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March Country: EU5- N= 69,031

22 % Market Free Business Model Gaining Traction at Expense of Paid The number of people downloading has risen 40% year on year, however the number of people purchasing games as risen just 11%. The vast majority of the growth in games downloads is coming from free games downloads which are growing 68%. 5% Mobile Games Trends 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% Mar-2009 Apr-2009 May-2009 Jun-2009 Jul-2009 Aug-2009 Sep-2009 Oct-2009 Nov-2009 Dec-2009 Jan-2010 Feb-2010 Mar-2010 Downloaded a Game Purchased a Game Downloaded a Game for Free Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March Country: EU5- N= 69,031

23 Products Unique News and Info Browsers Steady Growth Continues for Mobile Banner Advertising Mobile Browsers vs Products Advertised 14,000,000 13,000, ,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 Products Advertised Mobile News + Info Browsers Linear (Products Advertised) Product: Ad Metrix Mobile Data: March Country: UK

24 Products Unique News and Info Browsers Steady Growth Continues for Mobile Banner Advertising The number of products advertised is not growing as fast as the number of mobile browsers Mobile Browsers vs Products Advertised 14,000,000 13,000, ,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 Products Advertised Mobile News + Info Browsers Linear (Products Advertised) Product: Ad Metrix Mobile + MobiLens Data: March Country: UK

25 Average Unique Users Ad Revenue Per Browser Ad Spend is Not Following the Consumers Digital Behaviour The average PC Internet browser generated over 90 per year of advertising revenue for the industry. The average mobile Internet user generated 2.90 per year In 2009 the average number of mobile browsers was 33% of the number of PC Internet browsers. In December 2009 total mobile Internet minutes were between 6%-10% of total PC Internet minutes Mobile ad spend is 1% of PC Internet spend. PC Internet vs Mobile Ad Spend ,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 38,597, ,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000, ,832, Internet Users Mobile Internet Users Unique Browsers Advertising Revenue Per Browser Source: comscore + IAB UK Data: Country: UK

26 26

27 Smartphones 27

28 % Market 1 in 4 Mobile Phone Owners in EU5 Now Have a Smartphone Driving this increase are phones that provide a strong foundation for media consumption The graph shows the dominance of the Symbian operating system, Apple and RIM s increasing influence and the recent emergence of Google Android. 30% Growth of Smartphones as a % of Total Market 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Mar-2009 Apr-2009 May-2009 Jun-2009 Jul-2009 Aug-2009 Sep-2009 Oct-2009 Nov-2009 Dec-2009 Jan-2010 Feb-2010 Mar-2010 Symbian Apple Microsoft RIM Google Palm Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March Country: EU5- N= 139,995

29 % Smartphone Owners Although the Total Number of Symbian Owners are Growing they are Losing Share Apple and RIM gaining share. Android starting to emerge. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Smartphone Marketshare Q1 09 vs Q1 10 3% 6% 8% 16% 14% 8% 17% 40% 30% 20% 10% 69% 59% 0% Q Q Symbian Apple Microsoft RIM Google Palm Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March Country: EU5- N= 139,995

30 Unique Users The Tail of Two Touch Screen Smartphones There are more people with a Nokia 5800 than there are with an iphone 3G S 6,000,000 iphone 3G S vs Nokia ,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Nokia 5800 iphone 3G S 30 Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 2010 Country: EU5- N= 139,995

31 % Penetration Device Owners (000s) Smartphone Owners are Over 328% More Likely to Use Mobile Media than Non-Smartphone Users The Apple iphone has revolutionized the market for mobile media, however Google s Android and RIM s Blackberry devices are providing competition in terms of usage behaviour. Symbian device owners are less likely to use mobile media but are by far the most popular smartphone OS. Mobile Media Consumption by Operating System 100% 90% 80% 70% 93% 89% 80% 68% 33,026 63% 35,000 30,000 25,000 60% 50% 40% 50% 20,000 15,000 30% 20% 10% 0% 9,419 15% 7,597 4,422 Apple 1,404 Android RIM Microsoft Symbian Smartphone Non-Smartphone 10,000 5,000 - Mobile Media (Connected Media) Used Application (except native games) Used Browser Device Owners Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March Country: EU5- N= 139,995

32 Summing Up 32

33 Summing Up: The Big Picture Mobile Media Market has fully arrived 1/3 of phone owners using mobile media Critical mass for publishers with room for sustained growth Technology enablers continue to grow Even faster networks / devices arriving Growth of key consumer enabler unlimited data plans still limited in EU US market becoming more advanced due to increased data plan adoption Classic mobile content business personalization in decline / flat Still work to be done to accelerate the large mobile advertising opportunity The iphone is not the only smartphone on the market. Symbian shows high penetration Android users show similar usage penetration 33

34 Thank You. THE GLOBAL SOURCE OF DIGITAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE For more information, please contact comscore Mobile