12th Edition. Global Macrocell Base Station/Remote Radio Unit Market Analysis and Forecast, May 2016

Transcription

1 Market Analysis Earl J. Lum th Edition Global Macrocell Base Station/Remote Radio Unit Market Analysis and Forecast, May 2016 Source: Tin atomic50 Source: EJL Wireless Research LLC Entire contents. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is strictly forbidden and will be prosecuted to the full extent of US and International laws. The transfer of this publication in either paper or electronic form to unlicensed third parties is strictly forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources EJL Wireless Research LLC deems reliable. EJL Wireless Research disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of such information. EJL Wireless Research LLC shall bear no liability for errors, omissions, or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for the interpretation thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve their intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Review: The Year of the Chinese Grafting Probe and Inventory Chaos... 7 Macrocell BTS Forecast Demand Drivers for Our Forecast Summary RESEARCH METHODOLOGY CHAPTER 1: OVERALL MARKET PERFORMANCE : Another Year of Record Shipments for LTE OEM Analysis Huawei Still on Top The Chinese Factor Macrocell BTS Forecast Demand Drivers for Our Forecast CHAPTER 2: 5G CHAPTER 3: LTE ENODEBS LTE Market Share LTE1800MHz remains the focus for the industry The Chinese Factor LTE enodeb Forecast CHAPTER 4: W-CDMA/HSPA+ NODEBS W-CDMA Market Share Analysis Shipments Stable The Chinese Factor W-CDMA NodeB Forecast CHAPTER 5: GSM Still Alive and Kicking The Chinese Factor GSM900/GSM1800 Technology Becomes Obsolete GSM BTS Forecast CHAPTER 6: CDMA Sunset for the technology The Chinese Factor Demand focuses on 850MHz CDMA2000 BTS Forecast CHAPTER 7: GEOGRAPHICAL MARKET SHARE China: LTE Deployments Peaked in North & Latin America Western & Eastern Europe Africa & Middle East Asia Pacific Brazil/Russia/India/China (BRIC) Analysis CHAPTER 8: REMOTE RADIO UNIT (RRU) ANALYSIS CHAPTER 9: BTS OEM COMPANY PROFILES Ericsson Huawei Technologies Nokia Networks (includes Alcatel-Lucent) Samsung Electronics ZTE

3 TABLES Table 1: Global BTS Market Share by OEM, (Units)... 9 Table 2: Pro Forma Global BTS Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 3: Global BTS Market Share by Air Interface/Frequency, (Units) Table 4: Global BTS Market Share by Air Interface, (Units) Table 5: Global BTS Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 6: Pro Forma Global BTS Market Share by OEM, (Units) Table 7: Global BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, (Units) Table 8: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, (Units) Table 9: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, (% Market Share) Table 10: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface/Frequency, (% YoY Growth) Table 11: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface, (Units) Table 12: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface, (% Market Share) Table 13: Global BTS Forecast by Air Interface, (% YoY Growth) Table 14: 5G Base Station Forecast, 2016E-2025E, (Units) Table 15: Global LTE enodeb Market Share, (Units) Table 16: Global LTE enodeb Market Share (Pro Forma), (Units) Table 17: Global FDD LTE enodeb Market Share, (Units) Table 18: Global TDD LTE enodeb Market Share, (Units) Table 19: Global TDD LTE enodeb Market Share (Pro Forma), (Units) Table 20: Global LTE enodeb BTS Market Share by Frequency, (Units) Table 21: Global LTE enodeb Market Share, FDD vs. TDD, (Units) Table 22: Global LTE enodeb Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, (Units) Table 23: Global LTE enodeb Forecast, FDD vs. TDD, (Units) Table 24: Global LTE enodeb Forecast, FDD vs. TDD, (% Market Share) Table 25: Global LTE enodeb Shipment Forecast, (Units) Table 26: Global LTE enodeb Shipment Forecast, (% Market Share) Table 27: Global LTE enodeb Shipment Forecast, (% Growth YoY) Table 28: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share, (Units) Table 29: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share (Pro Forma), (Units) Table 30: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share by Frequency, (Units) Table 31: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, (Units) Table 32: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, (Units) Table 33: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, (% Market Share) Table 34: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, (% YoY Growth) Table 35: Global GSM BTS Market Share, (Units) Table 36: Global GSM BTS Market Share (Pro Forma), (Units) Table 37: Global GSM BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, (Units) Table 38: Global GSM BTS Market Share by Frequency, (Units) Table 39: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, (Units) Table 40: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, (% Market Share) Table 41: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, (% YoY Growth) Table 42: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share, (Units) Table 43: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, (Units) Table 44: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share by Frequency, (Units) Table 45: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, (Units) Table 46: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, (% Market Share) Table 47: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, (% YoY Growth) Table 48: Global BTS Shipment Forecast by Region, (Units) Table 49: Global BTS Shipment Forecast by Region, (% Market Share) Table 50: Global BTS Shipment Forecast by Region, (% YoY Growth) Table 51: Brazil/Russia/India/China BTS Forecast, (Units) Table 52: Brazil/Russia/India/China BTS Forecast, (% Market Share) Table 53: Global RRU Forecast by Air Interface, (Units) Table 54: Global RRU Forecast by Air Interface, (% Market Share) Table 55: Global RRU Forecast by Air Interface, (% YoY Growth) Table 56: Global RRU Shipments by Air Interface, (Units) Table 57: Global RRU Market Share, (Units) Table 58: Global RRU Market Share (Pro Forma), (Units) Table 59: Ericsson BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, (Units) Table 60: Ericsson BTS Shipments by Air Interface, (Units) Table 61: Nokia Networks BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, (Units)

4 Table 62: Nokia Networks BTS Shipments by Air Interface, (Units) Table 63: Samsung BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, (Units) Table 64: Samsung BTS Shipments by Air Interface, (Units) Table 65: ZTE BTS Shipments by Air Interface/Frequency, (Units) Table 66: ZTE BTS Shipments by Air Interface, (Units)

5 EXHIBITS Exhibit 1: Global BTS Market Share by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share)... 9 Exhibit 2: Pro Forma Global BTS Market Share by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 3: Global Macrocell BTS Forecast, , (% YoY Growth) Exhibit 4: Comparison of 2015 Global BTS Forecast vs. Actual Shipments Exhibit 5: Global BTS Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 6: Global BTS Market Share by Air Interface, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 7: Global BTS Market Share by Technology Generation, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 8: Global UMTS BTS Market Share by Technology, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 9: Global BTS Market Share by Air Interface, (Units) Exhibit 10: Global BTS Market Share by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 11: Pro Forma Global BTS Market Share by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 12: Global BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, (Units) Exhibit 13: Global BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 14: Global BTS Forecast , (% YoY Growth) Exhibit 15: Global BTS Shipment Forecast, Prior vs. Current, (Units) Exhibit 16: Global BTS Shipment Historical Trend, , (Units) Exhibit 17: China Mobile Operator CAP EX, E (RMB Billions) Exhibit 18: 5G vs. 4G Spectrum Usage Exhibit 19: 5G Base Station Forecast, 2016E-2025E, (Units) Exhibit 20: Comparison of 2015 Global LTE enodeb Forecast vs. Actual Shipments Exhibit 21: Global LTE enodeb Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 22: Global LTE enodeb Market Share by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 23: Global LTE enodeb Market Share (Pro Forma) by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 24: Global FDD LTE enodeb Market Share by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 25: Global FDD LTE enodeb Market Share (Pro Forma), (Units) Exhibit 26: Global FDD LTE enodeb Market Share (Pro Forma) by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 27: Global TDD LTE enodeb Market Share by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 28: Global TDD LTE enodeb Market Share (Pro Forma) by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 29: Global LTE enodeb Market Share by Frequency, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 30: Global LTE enodeb Market Share, FDD vs. TDD, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 31: Global LTE enodeb Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, (Units) Exhibit 32: Global LTE enodeb Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 33: Global LTE enodeb Forecast , (% YoY Growth) Exhibit 34: LTE Forecast with and without China Mobile FDD License, (YoY Growth) Exhibit 35: LTE Forecast with and without China Mobile FDD License, (Units) Exhibit 36: Global LTE enodeb Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 37: Global LTE enodeb Forecast, Prior vs. Current, (Units) Exhibit 38: Global LTE enodeb Forecast, FDD vs. TDD, (Units) Exhibit 39: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 40: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 41: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share (Pro Forma) by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 42: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share by Frequency, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 43: Global W-CDMA NodeB Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, (Units) Exhibit 44: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, , (% YoY Growth) Exhibit 45: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 46: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, Prior vs. Current, (Units) Exhibit 47: Global W-CDMA NodeB Shipment Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 48: Comparison of 2015 GSM BTS Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 49: Global GSM BTS Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 50: Global GSM BTS Market Share by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 51: Global GSM BTS Market Share (Pro Forma) by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 52: Global GSM BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, (Units) Exhibit 53: Global GSM BTS Market Share by Frequency, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 54: Global GSM BTS Market Share by Frequency, (Units) Exhibit 55: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, , (% YoY Growth) Exhibit 56: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 57: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, Prior vs. Current, (Units) Exhibit 58: Global GSM BTS Shipment Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 59: Comparison of 2015 CDMA2000 BTS Forecast vs. Actual Shipments (Units) Exhibit 60: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipments, (Units) Exhibit 61: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share by OEM, 2015 (% Market Share)

6 Exhibit 62: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share, Chinese vs. ROW, (Units) Exhibit 63: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share by Frequency, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 64: Global CDMA2000 BTS Market Share by Frequency, (Units) Exhibit 65: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, (% YoY Growth) Exhibit 66: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 67: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, Prior vs. Current, (Units) Exhibit 68: Global CDMA2000 BTS Shipment Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 69: Global BTS Market Share by Region, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 70: North & Latin America BTS Forecast by Region, (Units) Exhibit 71: Western & Eastern Europe BTS Forecast by Region, (Units) Exhibit 72: Africa & Middle East BTS Forecast by Region, (Units) Exhibit 73: Asia Pacific BTS Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 74: Brazil/Russia/India/China BTS Market Share, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 75: Brazil/Russia/India/China BTS Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 76: Brazil BTS Shipment Forecast (Units) Exhibit 77: Russia BTS Shipment Forecast (Units) Exhibit 78: China BTS Shipment Forecast (Units) Exhibit 79: India BTS Shipment Forecast (Units) Exhibit 80: China & India BTS Shipment Forecast (Units) Exhibit 81: Global RRU Shipment Forecast, (Units) Exhibit 82: Global RRU Shipments by Air Interface, (Units) Exhibit 83: Global RRU Market Share, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 84: Global RRU Market Share (Pro Forma), 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 85: Global RRU Shipments by Air Interface, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 86: Ericsson BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 87: Huawei BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 88: Nokia Networks BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 89: Samsung BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2015 (% Market Share) Exhibit 90: ZTE BTS Shipments by Air Interface, 2015 (% Market Share)