Mobile Money Understanding successes and failures

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1 Mobile Money Understanding successes and failures August 2010

2 M-PESA Revenue (millions USD) M-PESA Registered Users (millions) M-Pesa Kenya is well known M-PESA Revenue and Subscriber Growth Over 9m customers registered % of Safaricom total revenue in FY 2010 (USD 93 million) USD 350m transferred per month (Mar 2010) H08 2H08 1H09 2H09 1H10e 2H10e Over 17,000 agent locations throughout Kenya M-PESA Revenue M-PESA Registered Users

3 but M-Pesa is one of multiple models Payment service provider (M-PESA Kenya, multiple ) Mobile bank (EasyPaisa Pakistan) Agent-based Acquirer (Eko India, DD Dedo Colombia) Consumer-facing businesses family of models Multiple variations likely to exist M-wallet Aggregator (SMART Money) Low cost branch substitute (BancoEstado Chile, AVV Colombia)

4 Biz case unproven across models Profitability: M-pesa Kenya cash-flow positive (8 percent EBITDA margin) + USD 8 million profit from cheaper air-time sales Profitability of other models/scenarios unclear too many mouths to feed Business case for end-agent often underestimated Operational challenges Right human resources Agent network management should it be a specialized company? Customer adoption Domestic remittances? Bill payments? International remittances? Sensible pricing even if domestic remittances Unproven products in complex models or non-financial VAS

5 Competitive threat while regulators more engaged Regulatory landscape evolving More regulators engaged and trying to understand the business case A few markets moving from more restricted to less stringent Regulation impacts the business model Market structure e.g., telecom market: high DOMINANT PLAYER IS THE MARKET FORCE Single dominant player controls pace of development Pricing and distribution controlled by single player STRONG MARKET FORCE Significant competition Little growth left in core business pocket share mode low NO MARKET FORCE Single dominant player so no imminent competitive threat Lots of room to grow in core business WEAK MARKET FORCE Significant competition Lot of growth left in core business subscriber growth mode low Degree of fragmentation high

6 CGAP CGAP is an independent policy and research center dedicated to advancing financial access for the world's poor. It is supported by over 30 development agencies and private foundations who share a common mission to alleviate poverty. Housed at the World Bank, CGAP provides market intelligence, promotes standards, develops innovative solutions and offers advisory services to governments, microfinance providers, donors, and investors. More at The Technology Program at CGAP works to expand financial services for the poor using mobile phones and other technologies and is co-funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, CGAP, and the UK Department for International Development (DFID). Learn more about our work and join the conversation on our blog and Linkedin group at

7 CGAP Technology Program 14 projects in 10 countries, 13 policy diagnostics Research, policy, advisory and grant funding Learning and knowledge sharing Co-funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, CGAP and the UK Department for International Development Find us online at What we do Demonstrate innovation and scale in branchless banking projects resulting from CGAP s technical assistance and/or grant funding. Improve broad industry knowledge and practice in the areas of customers, agents, business models and regulatory frameworks. Harness existing government payments and remittance flows to provide banking services to large numbers of unbanked people. Help policymakers develop regulations that support effective use of mobile technologies for financial inclusion.

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