Global Handset Market Analysis and Forecast
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1 Global Handset Market Analysis and Forecast Korea Display Conference 2016 IHS Markit Technology Jusy Hong Principal Analyst Mobile & Telecom
2 2 Global Smartphone Market Saturation
3 3 Top 2 OEMs decelerates but China origin companies accelerates 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Smartphone market share by OEM Samsung Apple Huawei Oppo vivo Xiaomi LG ZTE Lenovo/Moto TCL-Alcatel Gionee MicroMax Coolpad Sony HTC Microsoft BlackBerry Others 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Country share by OEM s Origin Others India Japan Taiwan China USA Korea 5% 20% 10% 0% Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 0% (F) Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium IHS Markit
4 4 More than half of top smartphone OEMs made negative YoY growth in the 1H Mil. units Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 1H(YoY) Samsung % Apple % Huawei % Oppo % vivo % Xiaomi % LG % ZTE % Lenovo/Moto % TCL-Alcatel % Gionee % MicroMax % Others % Sum % Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium IHS Markit
5 5 Huawei, Oppo and vivo revised up its smartphone shipment target while other OEMs revised down Mil. units As of Feb As of Apr As of Aug As of Oct Change(Feb-Oct) Samsung % Apple % Huawei % OPPO % Vivo % Xiaomi % LG % ZTE % Lenovo/Moto % TCL-Alcatel % Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium IHS Markit
6 6 Will 2016 be the first contraction year of the smartphone history? Mil. units Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16(E) Q4-16(E) 2016(E) YoY(2015) Samsung % Apple % Huawei % OPPO % Vivo % Xiaomi % ZTE % LG Electronics % Lenovo % TCL-Alcatel % Gionee % Micromax % Others % Sum , % Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium IHS Markit
7 7 The importance of Mid & Lowend smartphones
8 8 Emerging regions will account for almost 60% in 2020 in the global smartphone market 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Smartphone regional share forecast Rest of APAC E. Europe + Africa + Middle East L America China Western Europe N America Emerging Regions Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium IHS Markit
9 9 Top 20 models of global smartphone shipment in 1H Volume of premium model declined while that of cheaper model increased Model Name Company 2015 iphone 6 Apple 65.4 iphone 6 Plus Apple 25.3 Galaxy Grand Prime Samsung 15.6 Galaxy S6 Edge Samsung 13.0 iphone 5S Apple 12.3 Galaxy Core Prime Samsung 10.7 Galaxy S6 Samsung 10.1 Mi 4 Xiaomi 9.3 Galaxy V Samsung 8.3 Galaxy S5 Samsung 8.2 Redmi 2 Xiaomi 7.7 Galaxy J1 Samsung 7.3 Galaxy A5 Samsung 7.0 Galaxy Grand Neo Samsung 6.0 Galaxy Core 2 Duo Samsung 5.9 Galaxy Note 4 Samsung 5.9 Galaxy A3 Samsung 5.5 Redmi 2A Xiaomi 5.2 Honor 4X Huawei 4.5 Redmi Note 4G Xiaomi No. of Model Vol. (Mil.) Ave. (Mil.) Samsung Apple Huawei Xiaomi No. of Model Vol. (Mil.) Ave. (Mil.) Samsung Apple Huawei Xiaomi LG Based on model shipment data of Apple, Blackberry, Huawei, HTC, Lenovo, LG, Motorola, Samsung, Sony, TCL, Xiaomi and ZTE Model Name Company 2016 iphone 6S Apple 50.7 iphone 6S Plus Apple 16.4 Galaxy J5 Samsung 15.6 Galaxy S7 Edge Samsung 13.5 Galaxy J7 Samsung 13.0 Galaxy J2 Samsung 12.6 Galaxy S7 Samsung 12.0 Galaxy J1 ACE Samsung 11.0 Galaxy Grand Prime Samsung 9.9 iphone 6 Apple 9.3 Galaxy J3 (2016) Samsung 9.1 iphone SE Apple 8.3 Redmi Note 3 Xiaomi 7.9 Galaxy J1 (2016) Samsung 6.7 Redmi 3 Xiaomi 6.0 Honor 5X Huawei 6.0 K7 LG 5.4 Galaxy J1 Mini Samsung 5.1 Ascend P8 Lite Huawei 5.0 Ascend Mate 8 Huawei 5.0
10 10 What is Smartphone Active Installed Data Smartphone model information which is currently in use. Collecting 4 billion data points each month. Covering 80 different countries in the world. Smartphone model based foundation, which brings various data points. > Smartphone model; top 20 models by country; top 400 models by OEM by country > OEM complete brand coverage; > Display: Screen size; PPI; Resolution; > Fingerprint sensor; Barometer; NFC; Gyroscope; > Audio codecs; Video codecs; > RAM; Storage; SD card slot; > Dual/Single/Triple SIM; SIM type; > IP Rating; Battery capacity; > Rear camera MP; OIS; Front camera MP; > Application processor; SoC designer; SoC model; GPU designer; GPU model > Location: Beidou; Glosnass; GPS; Gallileo; > Air interface; Network type; Monthly based data frequency with quarterly update (scheduled to change to monthly update soon)
11 11 Rising dual SIM smartphone adoption demonstrates the importance of direct to consumer sales 45% Dual-sim smartphone share in active installed base 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Africa Asia Pacific South & Central America Central & Eastern Europe Middle East Western Europe North America 0% Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium Active installed base IHS Markit
12 12 Prepaid subscription is popular in emerging regions China W. Europe US Korea Prepaid subscription share by country in 2016 India South Africa Egypt Russia Argentina Brazil 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Mobile Media Intelligence, IHS Markit
13 Million units 13 Decreasing is an obvious trend but the speed can be slower than forecast 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 Feature Phone Smart Phone 25% Global handset market forecast 19% 16% 1,200 1, Source: Mobile Media Intelligence, IHS Markit
14 14 Still more than 30% of handset users will use feature phone in emerging region in % 90% Smartphone penetration in handset subscription % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Africa & Middle East Asia Pacific Central & Eastern Europe Latin America North America Western Europe Source: Mobile Media Intelligence, IHS Markit
15 15 Strength of feature phone is cheap price Design Bar: 94% Flip: 5% Resolution 240x320: 35% 128x160: 30% Display <2 : 43% : 36% $10-40 Camera <3 MP: 66% 3-7 MP: 20% Image source: gift-10.com.hk Number of feature phone models selling on Alibaba website (Oct 16)
16 16 Emerging market is different from advanced market
17 17 Local leaders are prevalent across South East Asia in particular, but do appear in more developed markets too Local Kings: Brands that are in the top 3 in only one country Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium IHS Markit
18 18 Both Chinese & local smartphone brands are growing, but there are large difference between countries 100% Smartphone shipments by type of brand, by country, % Other 80% 70% Local brands 60% 50% Chinese brands 40% 30% Apple 20% 10% Samsung 0% India Indonesia United States Norway Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium IHS Markit
19 19 The overall mobile market structure of each country drives the degree of OEM competition India Smartphone shipments by OEM by country, 2015 Indonesia United States Norway 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Local brands are starting to struggle as Chinese brands increase their focus, but regulation risks Chinese brands are rising but regulatory structure encourages strong local brands Increasingly diverse due to shift away from subsidies & slow rise of prepaid High postpay supports strong brands & increases concentration India Indonesia United States Norway Others Vivo LAVA Motorola Sony Asus Huawei LG Oppo Micromax Evercoss Advan ZTE Apple Samsung Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium IHS Markit
20 20 While Samsung dominates market, Chinese OEMs are getting stronger with mid/low-end smartphones Brazil Argentina Shipment(Mil.) 31.0 Shipment(Mil.) 8.8 Samsung 34% Samsung 37% Apple 15% LG 15% LG 13% Motorola 15% TCL-Alcatel 6% Apple 9% Motorola 3% Huawei 0.1% Top 5 71% Top 5 77% Russia Iran Shipment(Mil.) 21.9 Shipment(Mil.) 11.7 Apple 39% Huawei 45% Samsung 18% Samsung 34% TCL-Alcatel 10% Apple 9% Lenovo 8% Sony 5% Sony 8% HTC 3% Top 5 83% Top 5 96% Egypt South Africa Shipment(Mil.) 10.6 Shipment(Mil.) 12.9 Samsung 57% Samsung 48% Huawei 13% Huawei 11% Apple 8% ZTE 10% Sony 6% Microsoft 7% Lenovo 5% TCL-Alcatel 7% Top 5 89% Top 5 82% India Indonesia Shipment(Mil.) 86.4 Shipment(Mil.) 39.4 Samsung 38% Samsung 43% MicroMax 21% Lenovo 16% Apple 8% Asus 13% Motorola 7% Evercoss 6% Microsoft 6% Xiaomi 5% Top 5 80% Top 5 83% Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium IHS Markit
21 21 More than a half of smartphones in use in the emerging regions is less than 5 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Screen size all smartphone (Jun 16) 6.0 & Larger below 3.99 Others Screen size android smartphone (Jun 16) Korea UK US & Larger Indonesia India South Africa Egypt Iran Russia Argentina Brazil 0% 50% 100% Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium Active installed base IHS Markit
22 1/14 3/14 5/14 7/14 9/14 11/14 1/15 3/15 5/15 7/15 9/15 11/15 1/16 3/16 5/16 1/14 3/14 5/14 7/14 9/14 11/14 1/15 3/15 5/15 7/15 9/15 11/15 1/16 3/16 5/16 22 People in Asia Pacific show higher preference for larger screen size Smartphone screen size Asia Pacific Unknown 100% Smartphone screen size W. Europe % % % % % % % % 20% % % 10% Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium Active installed base IHS Markit
23 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 6/16 23 But in Western Europe, smartphone users prefer higher resolution Resolution Asia Pacific Resolution Western Europe 27% Unknown 480 x x x x x x x x x x x x x % Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium Active installed base IHS Markit
24 24 Why is it different?
25 25 Average revenue per user of subscription shows big gap between advanced and emerging countries Blended ARPU (Euro) Content ARPU (Euro) Content Share in blended ARPU Subscription ARPU by country 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0.0 Brazil Russia South Africa India Korea US W. Europe China 0% Source: Mobile Media Intelligence, IHS Markit
26 26 Content consumption behavior shows a distinct difference preference by country 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% Strong preference for Game content Contents revenue share 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Brazil Russia South Africa India Korea US Western Europe China Mobile music (consumer) Mobile operator games Mobile TV Mobile video Source: Mobile Media Intelligence, IHS Markit
27 27 But emerging market is evolving, a mobile payment service already started in Kenya M-PESA is a mobile phone-based money transfer, financing and microfinancing service in Kenya and Tanzania. M-PESA allows users to deposit, withdraw, transfer money and pay for goods and services easily with a mobile device. Image source: IHS Markit
28 28 Difference starting points but paths to positive cycles Starts! Starts! New Software Experience Hardware Price Down New Hardware Development Software Experience Upgrade Emerging Market Advanced Market Needs Hardware Upgrade Experience Upgrade New Experience with Software Hardware Upgrade Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium IHS Markit
29 29 Drivers of enlarging and upgrading smartphone screen Low-end Emerging market Premium Advanced market Many people never had a camera before Subscription free Starting point of SNS High resolution picture Color enhancement Increasing streaming service Personal Entertainment Subscription free Cheaper contents High quality picture Color enhancement Replacing DSLR Immersive experience High resolution picture Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium IHS Markit
30 30 Qualcomm announced new chipsets upgrades Snapdragon Snapdragon Snapdragon Snapdragon Premium tier smartphones High tier smartphones High volume smartphones Entry level smartphones Camera 21-55MP 21-24MP 13-21MP 5-8MP Display 1080p-4K 1080p30-4K30 720p-1080p 720p 2017 new Snapdragon supports Dual Camera Snapdragon 653 Snapdragon 626 Snapdragon 427 Source: Qualcomm 5G summit 2016
31 31 Polarization of tier escalates but cost, efficiency and scale must be the foundations for both segments Low tier segment High tier segment 3G Dual Sim Camera Cheaper Display Cost Efficiency Scale 5G Dual Camera Flexible Display Quick Charge IP Rate Biometric VR Security Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium IHS Markit
32 32 Thank you
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