Modeling Advanced Optical Broadband Architectures

Transcription

1 MIT Center for ebusiness Annual Sponsors Conference and CIO Symposium June 20 21, 2006 Modeling Advanced Optical Broadband Architectures Rajeev J. Ram Director Massachusetts Institute of Technology Model Development Thomas Rand-Nash Dr. Richard Roth Prof. Randy Kirchain Working Group Chair Dr. Fred Leonberger

2 Optical Broadband Working Group Goal of Working Group Develop a roadmap for the co-evolution of FTTX architectures and components Working Group Members: Additional Participants:

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4 FTTX Deployment Status FTTX (RHK, NTT, Corning)

5 FTTH Services Today Japan Target: 30M subscribers (10 Mb/s), 10M subs (100 Mb/s-FTTH) Korea Target: 100Mb/s to 5M subscribers by 2007 and 10M by 2015

6 Operating Cost as a Driver Wireline is core to RBOC driving 65% revenues and 80% cash flow. This business is under threat by CATV operator. Triple play and IP convergence will accelerate eroding earnings and customer base. Wireless will not be sufficient to maintain overall EPS to historic levels as required by investors RBOCs must improve wireline cost efficiency and service competitiveness.

7 May 2004 Operating Cost as a Driver RBOC Cost Structure (2003) Projected

8 FTTH Architectures Small Businesses Office Parks ONT Residential ONT ONT Copper Distribution FTTH Overlay ONT Small Businesses FTTH Full Build Circuit Switch SAI X Copper Feeder Splitter Hub Splitter Splitter ONT ONT ONT Splitter ONT ONT ONT OLT Splitter New Buried Development ONT

9 FTTH Services Today Services Bandwidth (down) Bandwidth (up) Streaming Video (HD) Live TV VoD EoD/GoD Total 60Mb/s 20M/service 20M/service 20M/service 20M/service ONT POTS Data Internet 10Mb/s 10Mb/s (P-to-P) Video conference or VoIP 2 ~ 20 (HD) Mb/s 2 ~ 20 (HD) Mb/s Remote sensing/control Total Bandwidth 1Mb/s 73 ~ 91 Mb/s 1Mb/s 33 ~ 53Mb/s Video Power & Battery

10 Today s s Advanced PON GPON Overview 2.4 Gbps shared by up to 128 users Mbps service rates 2.4 Gbps out 1.2 Gbps in

11 The Case for Gigabit to the Home kbit/s 1.00E+07 10G 1.00E+06 1G 1.00E M 1.00E+04 Bit Rate 10M 1.00E+03 1M 1.00E E k 56k modem 10 GBE 1 GBE 10 G-PON G-PON 100 M VDSL2 DP 20 M VDSL2 Cab 18 M ADSL2plus 8M ADSL WDM/PON WDM/PON 1.00E+00 10k k Year Source: Next generation Broadband in Europe: The Need for Speed Heavy Reading Report, Vol. 3 No 5 March 2005 See Notes Historical trends suggest 1.3x increase in service rates

12 Advanced Television High Fidelity HDTV Ultrahigh Definition Video 4000p Motion artifacts in moving objects (blockiness of #39) HDTV: 1.5Gbps signals compressed to 20Mbps UHDV: 24Gbps compressed to 250Mbps

13 Advanced Photography 1/750, 1/180 and 1/45 s NYTimes: 10 & 25-Megapixel Cameras

14 Peer-to to-peer Peer-to-peer communication continues to exhaust current networks Symmetric load Account for 50-70% of all Internet traffic - File sharing shift from MP-3s (3-5 Mb) to DVDs (700Mb) Online Internet games account for 10% Internet traffic in 2003 Gaming will be >30% of US Internet traffic by % of Internet users in Korea play games Revenues > $4 Bn by 2008 Typically well-educated adults

15 Does Hardware Matter? Cellular Telephony Satellite Telephony Both wireless phones but with critical differences: Size and weight of user equipment Incremental build and upgrade Operating cost

16 Next Generation FTTX Networks Metro Core WDM-PON Metro Edge LR-PON GPON Optical Access Network WDM PON: Gigabit service rates with more expensive distribution plant Long Reach PON: Statistically Gigabit service rate with more expensive CPE and lower network operating costs

17 Model Development Overview of CIPS FTTX Models Develop models for generic network (statistically generated from user demographics) However, deterministic customer data can be input at any stage Network dimensioning tool that accesses component database to layout CapEx minimized network OpEx modeling tool that overlays maintenance (dig-up, etc) events on geography of network Model Inputs Survey of component and module costs from working group members Data on OpEx models for HFC networks (Motorola) and municipal FTTH (Corning)

18 Architectural OpEx Considerations Variables to consider Auto-detect and configuration of network elements Resource contention cost (cost of failing to provide QoS) Optical fiber fault handling cost Network interconnection cost (backhaul, etc) Power supply cost Realization of OpEx savings requires deactivating copper infrastructure Metrics # of people to run/maintain a network (staff per customer) # of customer affecting failures per km of route length Data Required - Dig-up rates per km of route length - FIT rates for components/modules - Costs for truck rolls and maintenance

19 Analytical Challenges Design model Maps demand demographics, technological performance to network hardware design Cost Model Maps network design to installed cost Demand Demographics Technological Characteristics Design Model Network Design Cost Model Network Costs Operating Context Factor Costs

20 Modeling Approach: Design Model Inputs Operating Context Geographic region of coverage Regional network connection locations Allowable technology operating capacity Customer Demand Demographics Location Customer density Data requirements by service tiers Technological Characteristics Max Downstream data transfer rate Max Split ratio Power budget Multiplexing strategy Buried/Aerial fiber populationdensity threshold Demand Demographics Technological Characteristics Design Model Network Design Cost Model Network Costs Operating Context Factor Costs

21 Key Elements of Hardware Citing Algorithm: Characterizing Backhaul and Demographic Distribution Model Inputs: Geographic region specified Existing backhaul locations cited Data manipulation for citing algorithms Search grid overlaid for citing CO s Demographic distributions determine location density per grid km Location Backhau

22 Key Elements of Hardware Citing Algorithm: Central Office Citing Initial CO cited at densest grid point Total reach set by Power budget Max allowed design capacity Additional CO s cited according to same algorithm, in order of decreasing grid density Max Range CO km Location Backhau CO 1

23 Splitter Citing: Graphic Representation CO 1 Neighborhood 1 Splitter 1

24 Modeling Approach: Hardware Population Virtual network populated with hardware based on componentspecific performance requirements: ONT: Data transfer rate Number of customers Receiver sensitivity Splitter: Cost per port Splicing costs OLT: Data transfer rate Tx power Fiber: Installation requirements Aerial Buried Max data rate Demand Demographics Technological Characteristics Design Model Network Design Cost Model Network Costs Operating Context Factor Costs

25 Modeling Approach: Cost Model Component specifications determine unit costs Physical layout determines Total fiber distance Number of components Number of facilities Capital Costs assigned Material cost per fiber km Aerial vs. Buried installation costs Total component costs Demand Demographics Technological Characteristics Design Model Network Design Cost Model Network Costs Operating Context Factor Costs

26 Preliminary OpEx Model Framework Operations model Maps characteristics of physical plant and technological reliability to the number of operational events and the resources required to satisfy those events Cost Model Maps operations characteristics to cost Network Characteristics Operations Resources Hardware Type Hardware Location Technological Reliability Operations Model Labor Repair Replacement Factor Costs Cost Model Network Costs

27 Operational Considerations Central Offices Operations Labor Energy Other Network Hardware: ONT, OLT, Splitters Maintenance: Event frequency and Event cost Repair : Event frequency and Event cost Replacement : Event frequency and Event cost Fiber Plant: Aerial and Buried Frequency of repair Cost of repair

28 Future Work Data Collection and Model Validation