West Virginia Broadband Connectivity. Ahmed Saeed, Bao Nguyen, and Peter Gardner George Mason University, Spring 2017

Transcription

1 West Virginia Broadband Connectivity Ahmed Saeed, Bao Nguyen, and Peter Gardner George Mason University, Spring

2 Problem Statement and Scope Rural areas lack high speed internet access Students, businesses, citizens fall behind How can we get broadband to the people in these West Virginia counties? Logan and Wyoming Previously Mercer and McDowell as well The goal of this project is to assess the coverage, understand the options, and the tradeoffs between the options, for providing broadband internet access to a key area in southern West Virginia. 2

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6 Components of Project Stakeholder Analysis Income, population Conditions Requirements Technological Analysis Current/expanded coverage (GIS) Functional issues with rural environment Available commercial alternatives General expansion costs Economic Analysis Visualization of relationships Sensitivity analysis Adoption rate 6

7 Stakeholders Citizens of selected WV counties Logan, [McDowell, Mercer,] Wyoming Government Local, state, federal Local internet service providers Shentel, Frontier, AT&T, Verizon.. Project sponsors Advancing Appalachia Initiative Dr. Michael Hieb Shepherd University 7

8 Citizens of Southern WV Counties Counties Population Wyoming County Data 8

9 Coverage Analysis GIS (Geographic Information Systems) software QGIS ArcGIS Goals Evaluate current coverage Identify gap areas Analysis of demographics Data Main source: GeoTel Shentel for wired coverage validation FCC and USGS for wireless coverage validation 9

10 Cable % Fiber % ADSL only % No Coverage % 10

11 AT&T % Verizon % US Cellular % WVVA.NET % No Coverage % 11

12 89% wireless coverage 69% cable/fiber coverage 98% overall broadband coverage (ADSL not included) Wireless No Wireless Cable/Fiber % % No Cable/Fiber % % 12

13 Available Commercial Alternatives Cable/Fiber Fast and reliable Moderate cost for users Costly to expand Mobile Wireless Great coverage Dead Zones Moderate cost for users (A)DSL Relies on phone lines Unreliable performance Low cost for users Not expanding Fixed Wireless Fast when available Requires LOS - Limited coverage area Typically uses unlicensed spectrum Costly to expand Satellite Wide availability Spotty performance High latency High cost for users 13

14 Available Alternatives Summary Technology Type Connection Download Speeds Type Consumer Latency ISP Expansion Cost Monthly Cost Mbps/$ Dial-up Wired 56 kbps 150 ms Not expanding N/A DSL Wired 5-25 Mbps 49 ms $ Satellite Wireless 3-6 Mbps 670 ms $554/installation $ Fixed Wireless Wireless Mbps 30 ms $ G Mobile Wireless Wireless 3-25 Mbps 110 ms $200k/tower $ Cable Wired Mbps 32 ms $75k/mile $ Fiber Wired Mbps 24 ms $30k/mile $ R&D <$20? <$20? Not expanding $25k-250k/tower Future Options: Subsidized Low Orbit Satellite (OneWeb/SpaceX) Wireless 5-50 Mbps 35 ms Balloon Wireless 4G LTE(Google Loon) Wireless 5-22 Mbps 150 ms R&D No Est. 14

15 Tiered Consumer Options Technology Speed Price Time Frame Available Now Short-term Solution DSL/Satellite 5-10 Mbps DSL - $30-80/month Satellite $80-120/month Mid-term Solution Cable/Fiber Mbps Cable - $50-80/month Fiber - $100+/month 1-5 Years Long-term Solution Subsidized Satellite Up to 50 Mbps Estimated <$20/month 2-10 Years 15

16 Economic Analysis Methodology Adoption Rate shifted focus Developed dynamic system model Provides visualization of relationships Display effects of broadband adoption on income, population, and ISP revenue Explanation of methodology and procedures Software used Variables and links definitions Usage with case studies Conduct sensitivity analysis Training/education and subsidies 16

17 Key Variables and Relationships Broadband Adoption vs Income Benefits, Employment Every 10% of adoption ~ 1.2% increase in income Every 1% of adoption ~ 0.25% increase in employment Available Training vs Broadband Adoption With training, BB adoption rate increases by 1.2% annually Subsidy vs. Broadband Adoption Every $10 of subsidy increases adoption 3% Expansion of Infrastructure Cable $75K/mi Fiber $30K/mi Cellular $225K/tower 17

18 Economic Analysis Wireless Model 18

19 Sensitivity Analysis - Wireless expansion 19

20 Sensitivity Analysis - Wired expansion 20

21 Model and Results Verification Compared model outputs for Income and Employment against regression lines of known linear relationships Employment Increase = Adoption Rate(%) x 0.25% Income Increase = Adoption Rate(%) x 1.2% Reached out to domain experts for comment Pending Model results deviated within 4.9% of estimated for Income, <1% 13% for Jobs *Data from Wired Model in Logan County Case Study 21

22 Northwest Logan County: Adequate wireless coverage Minimal wired coverage Huff Creek Valley: No wireless coverage Some wired coverage 22

23 One existing fiber line: Not currently used for domestic coverage here Two new wires suggested: Could be either cable or fiber; some overlap 23

24 Northwest Logan County Analysis As is Expanded New wire length (km) Cost per km $19k Cable/Fiber 0 0% % ADSL-only % % New wire cost $530k No connection % % Predicted 10-year $1.6M revenue Predicted 10-year Adoption Rate 44% 24

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27 Huff Creek Valley Analysis Connectivity improvement 404 currently without wireless coverage 314 (78%) covered by proposed new tower Expansion cost Tower construction costs $225k Revenue Model predicts revenue of $1.23M from new tower over the first ten years 27

28 Wired/Wireless Economic Comparison 10 Year Results* Wired Wireless Wired** Wireless Population Connected Expansion Cost $600k $225k Adoption Rate 39% 27% Income Gain(%) 25.0% 21.2% Revenue $718k $1.23M *Using same demographic information for the region as initial values and controlled variables. Major note: There are no major areas in the region that lack both wired AND wireless connectivity. We are utilizing a hypothetical area (12 km long) similar to Huff Creek Valley that has neither. 28

29 Adoption Rate Adoption Rate = Number of Users / Population with Access Also called take-up rate Does not correspond directly to availability. While most addresses have broadband available, adoption rate remains low. District of Columbia - 76% Wyoming Logan Overall 22% 0.16% 9.3% Wireless Only 10% 43% 29% Wireless & Cable/Fiber 67% 55% 60% Total Connected 98% 98% 98% Adoption rate 33% 14% 22% Cable/Fiber Only Adoption rates from Shentel; the exact numbers will vary by ISP. 29

30 Adoption Rate Reasons West Virginia Survey Results Summary Not receiving speeds as advertised. Unreliable/Spotty High Cost Service Unavailable Source: West Virginia Region 1 Broadband Study Survey (2013) Source: Pew Research Nationwide Survey (2015) 30

31 Conclusions/Recommendations Broadband has the capability to improve the economic conditions of rural WV Actual Broadband availability needs improvement for some regions Availability is not the primary driver of low adoption rate Continue Cable/Fiber Expansion for higher adoption rate Cell yields lower adoption rate but cheaper to implement Adoption rate of broadband needs to be addressed Training and education Availability of subsidies Poor performance of advertised speeds and services Price point 31

32 Future Work Focus on adoption rate rather than the availability. Investigate additional subsidies and programs Continue researching other successful broadband initiatives Follow up on emerging technologies 32

33 Acknowledgements George Mason University Dr. Michael Hieb Dr. Syed Abbas Zaidi Dr. Kathryn Laskey GIS Department Geotel Communications LLC Teri Phares Andrew Bates Eric Cabading Shenandoah Telecommunications (Shentel) Brith Osinkosky Christopher Kyle 33

34 Questions? 34

35 Appendix Extra maps Key resources or charts Systems Dynamics model 35

36 Wired/Wireless Comparison ISP Revenue Wireless Cell Tower Initial Costs = $225K Graph TBD Wired *Using same geographic area to represent the same target population with same initial values 36

37 Northwest Logan County Analysis 37

38 Economic Analysis Wired Model 38

39 Coverage Analysis Wired Data on coverage area from GeoTel, by ISP and connection type: Coaxial cable Fiber Asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL) Partial data on fiber/cable lines from Shentel (comparison on right) 500-meter buffer around lines for theoretical coverage area (green) Mostly lines up with GeoTel data (brown and yellow) 500-meter buffer around GeoTel polygons for plausible expansion 39

40 Coverage Analysis Wireless Main data source: GeoTel Coverage polygons by provider and spectrum (purple transparent polygons, right) Data validation: Elevation data from USGS Cell towers (yellow arrows) from FCC Overlapping viewsheds calculated (green) Very general correlation, but not usefully close Complicating factors: Multi-path Vegetation 40

41 Actual Cell Coverage - Wyoming County 41

42 Relationship Link Resources Relationship between broadband adoption and income -on-household-income.pdf Relationship between broadband adoption and Training 20%282%29.pdf Relationship between broadband adoption and employment rates Relationship between broadband adoption and Cost DC BB Adoption Rates 42