Potential elements for strengthened early warning incorporating ENSO signal: case of the Pacific SIDS

Transcription

1 Extraordinary Meeting of Presidents of Regional Associations and Presidents of Technical Commissions Mechanism for WMO contributions to the GFCS Potential elements for strengthened early warning incorporating ENSO signal: case of the Pacific SIDS 9, MAY 2017 GENEVA President, Commission for Climatology President, Commission for Basic Systems President, Commission for Atmospheric Sciences

2 Background and context The recent very strong El Nino event of has renewed interest and awareness in the phenomenon ENSO is a major source of predictability in teleconnected regions, making such regions good candidates for demonstrating the value of climate services A focus on El Nino can be attractive to partners who otherwise might not be focused on hydrometeorological issues and climate services

3 Regional demonstration rationale The country-focused results based framework for WMO contributions to the GFCS objectives 1-3 focus on creating the regional delivery systems, tools and methods, and national capacities for improving climate-related outcomes A focused regional effort would facilitate systematic strengthening of early warning services in a comprehensive manner that would help countries in the region achieve this goal The approach could be up-scaled to other regions

4 Pacific SIDS ENSO strongly affects regional climate in the Pacific region, but this also creates a high degree of predictive potential during ENSO events The region has long experience with ENSO, which facilitates communication at all levels Considerable planning has already been done in the region, on how to provide early warning information and services on multiple timescales

5 Pacific SIDS Considerable investment in the relevant institutions needed for seamless multi-hazard early warning has already been made (an RA V RCC-network is entering demonstration phase) WMO has funding available through CREWS and potentially through GCF, and an additional $873m in related projects (RA V) is under implementation by partners, creating significant leveraging potential The approach developed in this region can be adapted to others

6 Potential elements Seamless prediction Objective regional seasonal forecast system (EC- 69, 4.5/4) Downscaling and tailoring sector applications, including in PNG, a PAC focus country with potential CREWS funding availability Strengthened severe weather, typhoon and flood warning systems Sub-seasonal forecasts Downscaled regional projections of key variables, e.g. sea level

7 Potential elements Basic systems Strengthened observing systems and integration of observations at all levels (e.g. Pacific HYCOS and TPOS) Data rescue Remote sensing applications for monitoring and assessment Improved historical time series/re-analyses Strengthened climate data management systems Cascading climate and NWP products from GPCs, RCCs, RSMCs through the GPDFS Further integration of data, tools and products among global, regional and national centers using WIS and GDPFS

8 Potential elements Service delivery End-to-end systems (from data acquisition to decision support) More systematic provision of monitoring products Strengthened alerting systems using the Common Alerting Protocol Tailored products for risk management in sensitive sectors including marine services (e.g. coastal inundation, fisheries)

9 Potential elements Alignment and coordination National and regional policies and plans for climate services, DRR, management of impacts in priority sectors UN system alignment at country level through national planning and coordination frameworks Alignment of/with partner extra-budgetary programmes

10 Linking with SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process Global NWP centres to provide available NWP/EPS and sat-based products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame; Regional centres to interpret information received from global centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, ; NMCs run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with user communities, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project; Global Centres RSMC Pretoria NMCs User communities, including Disaster Management authorities 10

11 Time-cascading of Weather-Climate Hour Early Warning Day Week Month Season SWFDP CWS RCOF

12 Dissemination of warnings in WIS WIS incorporates all dissemination types. Opens the way for using our common infrastructure for all hazards warnings Partnerships Authoritative Warning Service Provider GTS (including satellite broadcast, etc) FAX SMS Internet ( , FTP, etc) Authoritative Warning Recipient

13 Thank you