UK Perspectives on Cyber Crime: victims, offences and offenders

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1 OFFICIAL UK Perspectives on Cyber Crime: victims, offences and offenders Samantha Dowling Head of Cyber Crime Research Team Office for Security and Counter-Terrorism Research and Analysis Unit (OSCT R&A), Home Office Science March 2017 OFFICIAL

2 Presentation overview 1. The changing nature of crime crime trends in England and Wales 2. Developments in our understanding of cyber crime 3. New challenges: understanding cyber offenders and effective approaches to preventing involvement in cyber offending 2

3 Our story of crime: crime in England and Wales has been declining since the mid-90s 3

4 A new headline crime estimate of 11.8m crimes in England and Wales for the year ending Sept now including cyber crime and fraud 11.8m (inc fraud and cyber) X 6.2m (exc. fraud and cyber) 4

5 An estimated 2m computer misuse and 3.6m fraud offences occurred in the year ending Sept 2016 CSEW Experimental data: Estimated number of fraud and computer misuse incidents, year ending Sept 2016 Note: Based on approx. 17,900 interviews over 12 months Just over half of these (53%) were cyberrelated. There were over 1.5 million victims of computer misuse, with 2 million incidents in total. 5

6 Our ability to understand the scale and nature of cyber crime has improved considerably in recent years The Crime Survey for England and Wales now captures cyber crime and fraud. It also includes: Victim characteristics Losses from cyber crime Take-up of cyber security behaviours Volume of recorded cyber crime (and fraud) is captured centrally through a National Reporting Centre: Action Fraud New business surveys (e.g. the Cyber Security Breaches Survey) now provide more robust assessments of the scale and nature of cyber attacks experienced by businesses An online crime flag has been introduced to police recorded crime The Home Office has completed a programme of work considering how to improve assessments of the Costs of Cyber Crime But other notable gaps remain in our knowledge. 6

7 Cyber offenders are a key knowledge gap, a priority area for policy development and the focus of our current research programme The involvement of young people in high profile cyber attacks (e.g. Talk-Talk) has raised awareness of the need to identify how, why and when people may become involved in cyber crime. The National Cyber Security Strategy emphasises the need to: deter individuals from being attracted to, or becoming involved in, cyber crime by building on our early intervention measures. There is growing interest in these Prevent interventions although Pursue strategies (i.e. catching the criminals) are still important. 7

8 Intervening in this area sounds a great idea, but Who are we aiming our interventions at? How do we identify those most at risk? When, how and by whom should interventions be delivered? What types of interventions might be effective - and with different types of cyber offenders? How do we best evaluate how effective they are? 8

9 So what do we know already? 9

10 (1) Survey knowledge regarding prevalence of cyber offending behaviours in the general population is out of date / unknown The Offending Crime and Justice Survey (2003-6): the first - and only - nationally representative UK survey of self-reported offending behaviours Key findings 1 % of internet users aged 10 to 25 years had sent a computer virus in the 12 months prior to the survey 1% reported using a computer to access another person s computer files without permission. 10- to 17-year-olds were more likely than 18- to 25-year-olds to participate in both activities (2% versus 1% for both viruses and hacking). 0.1% year olds reported buying goods or services over the internet using someone else s card details without the owner s permission The survey is unfortunately no longer running. 10

11 (2) Qualitative evidence from Crown Prosecution Service case files provides some insight, but relates only to a subset of convicted offenders dealt with by local police A Home Office case file analysis of Crown Prosecution Service data examined a sample convicted of cyber offences (including computer misuse act and online fraud). Key findings Most of the victims and offenders knew each other offline either personally or professionally. In these cases often a simple security update could have prevented the crimes happening a very simple message came from this work regarding trust and changes in relationships. Offenders were reasonably, but not excessively technical in their computer skill. Insider-enabled crimes were relatively common Finance, revenge, challenge, for fun were all motivators 11

12 (3) Offender debriefs undertaken by the UK National Cyber Crime Unit provide indicative evidence from the offender perspective. The National Cyber Crime Unit undertook offender debriefs and consulted with security specialists and law enforcement regarding pathways into cyber crime. Key findings - Average age of suspects and arrests in NCCU investigations in 2015 was 17 years old - Gaming was a key pathway into cyber crime - Legality was not considered by young offenders and the perceived likelihood of encountering law enforcement was low - Cyber crime was not solitary and anti-social, but led to building of key social relationships and online interaction - Positive diversions / opportunities, role models and mentors, early targeted intervention were perceived as potentially helpful in deterring young people from cyber crime 12

13 (4) Much of our knowledge is based on anecdote / opinion and we lack empirical testing of well-known theories in the cyber world Middlesex University (2016) reviewed available literature and undertook practitioner interviews to better understand pathways into cyber crime. Key Findings Frameworks and approaches from a range of disciplines are key for understanding pathways into cyber crime (criminology, developmental psychology, neurobiology and cyber-psychology). However, little empirical evidence exists to validate and test the various theories and frameworks. There is a need to re-evaluate well-known theories in the cyber world. Better metrics and evaluation are required as new interventions and best practice are tested. 13

14 Overall, our knowledge is insufficient for providing well-informed advice to policy makers and law enforcement regarding appropriate intervention for cyber offenders What do we need to know? - Characteristics / backgrounds of different types of cyber offenders - The extent / volume of cyber offending / offenders. - The range of pathways into cyber crime - Evidence regarding causal mechanisms and drivers of onset, persistence and desistance in cyber offending. - What s the role of co-offending and delinquent peers in encouraging online offending behaviour. - What works in terms of preventing and deterring cyber offenders? - How is cyber offending tackled at an international level? - Do traditional theories of crime apply to cyber offenders? - Do we need to develop (and test) new theories? 14

15 It is important we develop this knowledge if not, the interventions put into place may be inappropriate and result in unintended consequences. How is the Home Office addressing this? - Exploring the evidence available from traditional crime interventions and their applicability to cyber crime identifying feasible interventions for testing. - We have commissioned a one-off short survey to look at prevalence - We are exploring law enforcement offender data to help inform what works - We are exploring criminal histories of convicted CMA offenders What else could be done to resolve our evidence gaps? 15

16 Any Questions? Contact Details:

17 » Additional slides if needed for Q&A

18 During 2012/13, fraud and computer misuse offences transitioned to central recording by Action Fraud. CIFAS and FFA data also became included within the crime count. Total recorded fraud has steadily increased each year. There were over 620,000 recorded fraud offences in the year ending Sept 2016, up 3% from previous year. Volume of police, Action Fraud, CIFAS and FFA recorded fraud offences, from Yr ending March 2011 to Yr ending Sept 2016 Action Fraud transition The main driver of the increase was reports of banking and credit industry fraud (up 8%). 18

19 The total volume of computer misuse crimes reported to Action Fraud has been declining. This is largely due to decreases in reports of viruses and hacking of social media and accounts. There were 13,424 computer misuse incidents reported to Action Fraud in the year to September This is 6% of all crime reports received by AF. It also represents a 10% decrease from the previous 12 months. 19

20 However, it s clear underreporting is still an issue. Just 14% of all CSEW fraud and computer misuse crimes were reported to Action Fraud or the Police. 20 Why not reported to AF? Never heard of Action Fraud (66%) Thought incident would be reported by another authority (10%) Too trivial, not worth reporting (8%) Dealt with the matter ourselves (6%) No loss/ damage occurred (3%) (NB. for fraud and computer misuse victims, who did not report to AF, they could select more than one reason)

21 The new DCMS breaches survey reports that 24% of all businesses experienced one or more cyber security breaches in the 12 months prior to survey in Feb 2016 Small Business: 33% Breached Medium Business: 51% Breached Large Business: 65% Breached 21 Base = 428 who experienced a breach

22 The estimated median loss from a breach for businesses was 200, with a mean cost of 3,480. Impacts can go beyond just immediate financial losses. Source: DCMS Cyber Security Breaches Survey, 2016 Cost to businesses of breaches experienced in last 12 months All businesses Micro / Small Medium Large Mean cost 3,480 3,100 1,860 36,500 Median cost ,300 Base Base = 428 that had a breach

23 Annual fraud losses recorded by FFA from online card-not-present fraud and online banking fraud have increased since lows seen around m 23

24 Analysis of losses reported by CSEW victims shows that one of the biggest myths is that victims will always be reimbursed 66% fraud incidents resulted in a loss. Of those cases 71% were fully reimbursed. 36% computer viruses resulted in loss. Where losses did occur they were generally unable to fully recover their losses (less than 1%). The majority of fraud loss is also concentrated in lower end of the spectrum (77% of losses were less than 500). 24

25 The introduction of an online crime flag means we will be better able to understand the proportions of other crime types that are committed online. Offences are flagged where the reporting officer believes the offences committed in full, or in part, by computer, computer network or other internet- enabled device. In year ending Sept 2016, just 1% of all offences recorded, were flagged as committed online. Experimental Stats: Offences recorded by the police in England and Wales which were flagged as online crime, year ending September 2016 Number of Proportion of offences total offences Grouping flagged as online crime flagged as online crime Harassment and stalking 21, Obscene publications 6, Child sexual offences 5, Blackmail 2, However, anecdotal evidence suggests the flag is being underused. Other violence against the person offences 1,310 0 Public order offences 1,085 0 Sexual offences (exc. child sexual offences) Criminal damage and arson Other offences 1, Total 40,202 1

26 Establishing effective approaches to improving cyber security behaviours to protect against cyber crime remains a key challenge. Individuals: A significant decrease in the proportion of individuals claiming to adopt several basic cyber hygiene steps reported between 2014/15 and 2015/16 (CSEW). Businesses: 29% had a cyber-security policy 51% attempted to identity security risks 62% had security controls on company owned devices 10% had a formal incident management plan (DCMS breaches survey) CSEW Question asks: In the past 12 months have you typically done any of these things to keep yourself safe online? 26 Note: Several questions did not feature in the 2013/14 versions

27 A new headline crime estimate of 11.8m crimes in England and Wales for the year ending Sept now including cyber crime and fraud X 11.8m (inc fraud and cyber) 6.2m (exc. fraud and cyber) 27

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