Fab Investment Outlook Foundry, Memory and LED. Clark Tseng, Sr. Research Manager, SEMI Vietnam Semiconductor Strategy Summit September 16-17, 20214

Transcription

1 Fab Investment Outlook Foundry, Memory and LED Clark Tseng, Sr. Research Manager, SEMI Vietnam Semiconductor Strategy Summit September 16-17, 20214

2 Outline Fab Investment & Capacity Trend Memory and Foundry Investment Outlook LED Investment Outlook Summary

3 Economic Trends: GDP and Some Indicators July, 2014 Contribution to World in 2012 YoY in % World Advanced Economies: USA (update ) Euro Area: Germany France Japan UK Emerging Markets: China India Brazil GDP World others World Bank (June 14) IC Insight (Jan 14) Henderson (May 14) DuPont (Jan 14) UBS (Apr 14) Dow Jones Industrial Average hits a new record of over 17,000 points July 3, 2014 S&P 500 surges to new record with over 1985 July 3, 2014 US unemployment rate: 6-year low dropping to 6.1 (lowest since 2008) Source: Reuters July 3, 2014) Consumer Comfort Index improving 2011: : : : -29 Source: Bloomberg ( ) Source: IMF and Others, July

4 Economic Trends 2014 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts August, 2014

5 Economic Trends 2015 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts August, 2014

6 Fab Investments & Capacity

7 Fab Construction Spending

8 Construction Spending by Segments - Led by Foundries

9 Stronger Investment Momentum in 2014 and 2015

10 Fab Equipment Spending: Industry Cycles 10

11 Investment in Fabs (Front End): Construction + Equipping Most (not all) construction spending goes into new facilities. 13

12 Low Single Digit Capacity Growth

13 Shift of Capacity Share (including discrete) ~10.7 M 200mm equiv./month ~19.4 M 200mm equiv./month Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast

14 Foundry and Memory Lead Capacity Growth

15 Capacity: Fab Equipment Spending vs Capacity Micron Feb 2014: Industry bit supply growth slowing: DRAM: 49% in 2010 to 24% in 2015 NAND: 74% in 2010 to 45% in 2015 SEMI World Fab Forecast: Since downturn the industry spends more money on upgrading existing facilities Average change rates * Fab Equipment 18% 29% 5% Fab Capacity 17% 4% 3% * : excluding 2010 because fab equipment growth was unusual high 17

16 Capacity: Begin Volume Production Per Node Forecast 3Q14 18

17 Changing Landscape: The Industry Consolidates Number may not ad up to 100 due to rounding 19

18 Memory and Foundry Investment Outlook 20

19 Fab Equipment Spending- Driven by Foundry and Memory

20 Both NAND and DRAM See Strong Growth Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, August 2014

21 Foundry Investment by Region Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, August 2014

22 LED Fab Investments

23 Global Revenues for Packaged LEDs

24 LEDs in Lighting 27% CAGR

25 LED Dedicated Fabs Changing LED Landscape Year (begin operation) Total count of LED fabs* Capacity in 4-inch EQs w/m 127, ,400 (152 EPI) ~3,100,000 Americas Europe/Mideast S. Korea Japan China Taiwan SEAsia *Fab number includes both LED epitaxy and chip facilities. Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Forecast, August 2014

26 LED Fab Capacity by Region, 2014 Worldwide LED Epitaxy capacity to reach 2.6 M in 2014 (4 equivalent per month) Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Forecast, August 2014

27 World LED Capacity Trend LED Epitaxy capacity (4 equivalent per month) Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Forecast, August 2014

28 LED Epitaxy Wafer Size Transition 2012 Epi Capacity 2015 Epi Capacity 1% 21% 46% 2" 3" 23% 35% 2" 3" 30% 3% 4" 6" 8" 39% 2% 4" 6" 8" Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Forecast, August 2014

29 LED Wafer Fab Equipment Spending LED Equipment Spending (US$ millions) $3,000 $2,500 $2,647 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $1,931 $1,530 $1,102 $1,189 $1,401 $500 $ Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Forecast, August 2014

30 Equipment Spending by Region China Percent of Global Spending 40% Equipment Spending By Region (in millions) EU-ME Americas Japan Korea Taiwan China Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Forecast, August 2014

31 Southeast Asia Market Key Facts Installed Fab Capacity Packaging & Test Semiconductor Materials Semiconductor Equipment 2014 Status ~1.3 million 200mm wafers/month Strong presence of subcon and IDM facilities in the region (including 20 assembly & test operations in Singapore) ~$6.7 billion ~$2.0 billion range Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, WWSEMS, & MMDS

32 Summary

33 Summary Overall Outlook - Positive outlook for the global economy in Mid to high single-digit revenue growth for semiconductors Fab Investment & Capacity - Fab investment is expected to show continuous growth into 2015 led by foundry and memory manufacturers. - Both NAND Flash and DRAM are seeing strong investment rebound. - Mobility, wireless, and connectivity remain the growth engines. LED Investment - Lighting applications to drive LED market growth. - LED investment to recover in 2015.