Neighborhood Change Rates

Transcription

1 1 August 2017 Neighborhood Change Rates Growth continues through 2017 in New Orleans neighborhoods The Data Center Released: August 17, 2017 In March of this year, the U.S. Census Bureau released its 2016 estimate of the total population of New Orleans, confirming that the population of the city grew by 1,757 people from 2015 to Many headlines have incorrectly stated that more people are leaving New Orleans than arriving, but according to the Census, about 260 more people moved to New Orleans than moved out over the last year. Add to this births and subtract deaths, and the total estimated population of New Orleans has grown to 391,495. Source: The Data Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau 2016 Population Estimates Where are reporters getting the idea that more people are leaving than coming? They are looking only at the domestic migration estimate, which is a negative 759. But they are failing to look at the international migration estimate which is a positive 1,020. Estimating the movement of people into and out of any parish is difficult and has some limitations1. Nonetheless, there is no data to support the assertion that more people are leaving than moving to New Orleans. The bottom line is that New Orleans continues to grow. New Orleans population not only continues to grow, but its growth rate is relatively strong. Looking at change since the last Census head count in 2010, the Census Bureau calculates that the New Orleans population grew 14 percent by 2016, resulting in a ranking of 63 rd on population growth out of 714 U.S. cities with populations of 50,000 or more. 2 For a closer and more up-to-date look at New Orleans neighborhood change, the number of active residential addresses based on U.S. Postal Service data is a useful indicator of population growth as recent as June All told, New Orleans households receiving mail increased 15 percent from June 2010 to June 2017, with 67 of 72 neighborhoods experiencing gains. Topping this list is the which has added 1,986 residences since Many neighborhoods that flooded when the levees failed in 2005 grew substantially from 2010 to Little,,, and all gained more than 1,000 households.,,, area, Treme/Lafitte, Roch,, and Lake Forest all gained between 600 and 1,000 households. Only five neighborhoods lost households from 2010 to Of those neighborhoods, four were on the west bank (,,, and U.S. Naval Support ). Looking at change from June 2016 to June 2017, postal data indicates that the New Orleans population grew an additional one percent over the last year. The data shows that 85 percent of the city s neighborhoods experienced an increase in active residences from 2016 to For data by neighborhood going back to June 2005, be sure to check out the downloadable Excel tables. Twelve years after Katrina, there are 21 neighborhoods in the city that now have a larger number of active addresses than they did prior to the levee breaches. Four neighborhoods have less than half the population they had prior to Katrina, including three public housing sites that have been demolished to make way for new mixed income housing:, elopment, and. The, where the surge of water was so strong it knocked homes completely off their foundations, also has less than half the population it had prior to Katrina. While not alarming, the latest Census estimates do suggest that growth of the New Orleans population is now less dependent on returning residents. To be sure, the total population of the metro area will rise and fall with economic growth, but workers and their families will choose the parish they find most attractive to live. New Orleans ability to attract additional population will be largely dependent on availability of affordable housing, reliable transportation to job centers, low crime rates, and appealing amenities.

2 Fairgrounds 2 August 2017 Lake Catherine Read Blvd Lake Forest Read Blvd NEW ORLEANS FLOOD EXTENT - SEPTEMBER 11, 2005 New Orleans flood extent September 11, 2005 Receded Waters September 11, 2005 Neighborhood Boundaries Plaquemines Little Lake & Oaks John Lower Jefferson Riverside elopment Riverside Source: The Data Center analysis of data from FEMA.

3 Lake Catherine Little Read Blvd Riverside John Riverside Lower elopment Read Blvd 3 August 2017 PERCENT CHANGE OF JUNE 2016 RESIDENTIAL ADDRESSES ACTIVELY RECEIVING MAIL IN JUNE 2017 Less than 0% (fewer active addresses) % 1.1-3% 3.1-6% Greater than 6% Lake & Oaks Lake Forest Jefferson Fairgrounds Plaquemines Source: The Data Center analysis of Valassis Residential and Business Database

4 Lake Catherine Little Read Blvd Riverside John Riverside Lower elopment Read Blvd 4 August 2017 PERCENT CHANGE OF JUNE 2010 RESIDENTIAL ADDRESSES ACTIVELY RECEIVING MAIL IN JUNE 2017 Less than 0% (fewer active addresses) % % % Greater than 50% Lake & Oaks Lake Forest efferson Fairgrounds Plaquemines Source: The Data Center analysis of Valassis Residential and Business Database

5 Lake Catherine Little Read Blvd Riverside John Riverside Lower elopment Read Blvd 5 August 2017 CHANGE IN NUMBER OF ACTIVE RESIDENTIAL ADDRESSES FROM JUNE 2010 TO JUNE 2017 Less than zero More than 1000 Lake & Oaks Lake Forest Jefferson Fairgrounds Plaquemines Source: The Data Center analysis of Valassis Residential and Business Database

6 6 August 2017 About Valassis data The Data Center relies on the Valassis Residential and Business Database which must be purchased from Valassis Direct Mail Inc, for neighborhood level tabulations of addresses receiving mail. Valassis is one of only a few companies nationwide that qualifies to receive weekly data feeds from the U.S. Postal Services Address Management Services database. The Valassis Database is unique from other sources of U.S. Postal Service data because it provides address level data. Although the address level data cannot be released to the public The Data Center developed a robust in house geocoding process in order to generate extremely accurate census block and neighborhood level data. The Valassis Database includes active and vacant addresses but does not include no stat addresses. You can find more detailed information in the following The Data Center publications: Plyer, A., & Ortiz, E. (2011, June). Valassis Lists Data as an Indicator of Population Recovery in the New Orleans. Retrieved from gnocdc.s3.amazonaws.com/reports/gnocdc_valassislistsdataasanindicatorofpopulationrecovery.pdf. This technical documentation includes detailed descriptions of the Valassis, Inc. database including a comparison of counts of ac-tive residential addresses between sources of U.S. Postal Service data. Plyer, A., & Bonaguro, J. (2007, June). Using U.S. Postal Service Delivery Statistics To Track the Repopulation of New Orleans and the Metropolitan. Retrieved from This research note explains why U.S. Postal Service Delivery Statistics are useful for tracking repopulation in a post disaster context and documents some of the limitations of the data as a measure of repopulation. Plyer, A., Bonaguro, J., & Hodges, K. (2009). Using administrative data to estimate population displacement and resettlement following a catastrophic U.S. disaster. Retrieved from This paper published in an academic journal reviews literature from the fields of demography and other disciplines to identify avail-able administrative data sets including USPS data that can form the basis of sound relevant and timely county level population estimates following a catastrophic U.S. event.

7 7 August 2017 About The Data Center The Data Center is the most trusted resource for data about greater New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana. Since 1997, The Data Center has been an objective partner in bringing reliable, thoroughly researched data to conversations about building a more prosperous, inclusive, and sustainable region. The Data Center (formerly known as the Greater New Orleans Community Data Center) became the local authority for tracking post-katrina recovery with The New Orleans Index, developed in partnership with the Brookings Institution. Acknowledgments We thank all The Data Center staff who contributed to the production of this report and Southpaw Creative for providing design. The Data Center is supported in part by Baptist Community Ministries, Entergy Corp, Foundation for Louisiana, George H. Wilson Jr. Fund, JPMorgan Chase Foundation, Kabacoff Family Foundation, Keller Family Foundation, W.K. Kellogg Foundation, Methodist Health Systems Foundation, RosaMary Foundation, Surdna Foundation, United Way of Southeast Louisiana, Walton Family Foundation, Bank, and data users like you. Notes 1. The Census relies on documented international migration data, as well as change of addresses on IRS tax forms and Medicare forms to estimate international and domestic movements. However, this method cannot capture all migration. Specifically, undocumented immigrants, low-income people who don t file taxes, and even young professionals who continue to file their taxes at their parents home in a different state or county all of these groups are not well captured in the Census estimation methodology. References 2. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. (May 2017). Cumulative Estimates of Resident Population Change for Incorporated Places of 50,000 or More in 2010, Ranked by Percent Change: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2016 [Data file]. Retrieved from