Cisco Global Cloud Index Update
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- Roderick Shelton
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1 Cisco Global Cloud Index Update Cisco Knowledge Network (CKN) Session Presented by: SP Thought Leadership Team / traffic-inquiries@cisco.com November 2015
2 Global Cloud Index Forecast Methodology Projecting Data Center and Cloud Traffic Growth The methodology begins with the installed base of workloads categorized by workload type and implementation and then applies the volume of bytes per workload per month to obtain the traffic for current and future years. Installed Base of Workloads Bytes of Traffic per Workload per Month Percent Traffic Within Data Center and Data Center to Data Center Analyst Data Measured Data Measured Data Detailed methodology description and specific analyst sources included in complete GCI report 2
3 Cisco VNI and Global Cloud Index Visual Networking Index (VNI) A A B + B = 2.0 ZBs Non-Data Center Traffic NOT included in GCI Data Center-to-User Traffic This is the overlap between VNI and GCI D 7.6 ZBs C 0.9 ZBs B 1.9 ZBs A 0.1 ZBs Global Cloud Index (GCI) + + = 10.4 ZBs B C D B C D Data Center-to-User Traffic (18%) This is the overlap between VNI and GCI Data Center-to-Data Center Traffic (9%) Traffic that flows from data center to data center Within Data Center (73%) Traffic that remains within the data center 3
4 Global Data Center and Cloud Drivers By 2019, there will be 24.4B global devices/connections (3.2 devices/connections per capita) By 2019, data generated by IoE apps (507 ZB) will be 49X higher than total data center traffic (10.4 ZB) Big Data Devices & Connections Mobile Network Capability In 2015, 81 countries met the single advanced app criteria for mobile networks (21 in 2014) By 2019, 55% of consumer Internet population (>2B users) will use cloud storage Storage Data Center / Cloud Momentum Fixed Network Capability In 2015, 119 countries met the single advanced app criteria for fixed networks (109 in 2014) Today, 47% of cloud sensitive data loss incidents involve confidential data Security Virtualization Workloads From , total data center workloads will grow 2.5X; cloud workloads will grow 3.3X By 2019, workload density for cloud data centers will grow to 8.4 workloads/server ; compared to 3.2 for traditional data centers 4
5 GCI Forecast Update, Top 5 Data Center/ Cloud Trends Growth of Global Data Center Relevance and Traffic Continued Global Data Center / Cloud Virtualization Cloud Service Delivery Models (IaaS, PaaS, SaaS) Global Digitization IoE and Big Data Global Cloud Readiness Data center by traffic by destination Data center and cloud IP traffic growth SDN/ NFV architecture impact wild card* Traditional DC vs. Cloud DC virtualization Public vs. private cloud workloads Regional* Service delivery workload analysis for Total Cloud Regional* Service delivery workload analysis for Private Cloud Regional* Service delivery workload analysis for Public Cloud M2M impact* Potential impact of Big Data on global data centers Data center and cloud storage analysis Internet ubiquity Network speeds and latency analysis Security analysis* *New for Forecast 5
6 Global Data Center Traffic Growth Data Center Traffic Triples from 2014 to % CAGR Zettabytes per Year Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
7 Global Data Center Traffic by Region North America to Have Highest Traffic Volume by 2019 MEA to Experience Highest Traffic Growth North America 2014: 1.5 Zettabytes 2019: 4.5 Zettabytes CAGR 25% Western Europe 2014: 648 Exabytes 2019: 1.9 Zettabytes CAGR 23% Central & Eastern Europe 2014: 149 Exabytes 2019: 523 Exabytes CAGR 29% Latin America 2014: 163 Exabytes 2019: 460 Exabytes CAGR 23% Middle East & Africa 2014: 82 Exabytes 2019: 328 Exabytes CAGR 32% Asia Pacific 2014: 915 Exabytes 2019: 2.7 Zettabytes CAGR 24% Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
8 Global Data Center Traffic by Destination, 2014 Most Data Center Events/Content Stays Within the Data Center Data Center to User 17.8% Within Data Center 75.4% A Within Data Center (75.4%) Storage, production and development data, authentication Data Center to Data Center 6.8% B Data Center to Data Center (6.8%) Replication, CDN, intercloud links C Data Center to User (17.8%) Web, , internal VoD, WebEx 8
9 Global Data Center Traffic by Destination, 2019 Most Data Center Events/Content Stays Within the Data Center Data Center to User 18.2% Within Data Center 73.1% A Within Data Center (73.1%) Storage, production and development data, authentication Data Center to Data Center 8.7% B Data Center to Data Center (8.7%) Replication, CDN, intercloud links C Data Center to User (18.2%) Web, , internal VoD, WebEx 9
10 Data Center Infrastructure and Data Volumes 2019, Current Architecture Core Aggregation Edge Servers 10.4 ZB* 40.2 ZB** * Currently forecasted as 2019 total data center traffic. ** Currently not captured in the forecast. Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
11 Data Center Infrastructure and Data Volumes 2019, Evolving SDN / NFV Data Center Architecture Core < 10 ZB Leaf-Spine > 40 ZB Servers Within two years, over 80% of companies expect to implement SDN, and 69% of those plan to implement SDN in the data center, compared to 47% and 31% for WAN and LAN. -- Current Analysis 2015 Global SDN Buyer Study Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
12 Cloud Definition by NIST Measured Service On Demand/ Self Service Rapid Elasticity Cloud Broad Network Access Resource Pooling 12
13 Workload Definition A server workload is defined as a virtual or physical set of computer resources, including storage, assigned to run a specific application or provide computing services for one or many users. No Virtualization Scenario 1 Workload = 1 Physical Server Physical Server Virtualization Scenario 1 Workload = Virtual Machine (VM) / Container VM1 / Container VM2 / Container VM3 / Container Definition developed and applied for the purpose of the GCI forecast 13
14 Global Cloud Workloads Surpass Traditional Workloads 86% of All Workloads Will Be in Cloud by Traditional Data Center (-1% CAGR) 20% CAGR Cloud Data Center (27% CAGR) 14% 250 Installed Workload in Millions % 86% % Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
15 Global Cloud Workload Distribution Asia Pacific Workloads Grow 4.5-Fold from 2014 to 2019 North America Will Maintain Largest Share of Cloud Workloads by 2019 North America 2014: 37.2 Million 2019: Million CAGR 23.3% Western Europe 2014: 18.0 Million 2019: 49.4 Million CAGR 22.4% Central & Eastern Europe 2014: 2.4 Million 2019: 7.9 Million CAGR 27.5% Latin America 2014: 3.0 Million 2019: 10.3 Million CAGR 28.3% Middle East & Africa 2014: 2.1 Million 2019: 7.3 Million CAGR 28.2% Asia Pacific 2014: 20.9 Million 2019: 94 Million CAGR 35.1% Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
16 Global Traditional Workload Distribution Global Decline of Traditional Workloads North America 2014: 22.0 Million 2019: 20.1 Million CAGR -1.8% Western Europe 2014: 10.3 Million 2019: 9.0 Million CAGR -2.5% Central & Eastern Europe 2014: 1.3 Million 2019: 1.1 Million CAGR -4.3% Latin America 2014: 1.5 Million 2019: 1.2 Million CAGR -4.1% Middle East & Africa 2014: 1.1 Million 2019: 1.0 Million CAGR -3.1% Asia Pacific 2014: 9.9 Million 2019: 12.2 Million CAGR 4.3% Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
17 Workload Density Cloud Will Outpace Traditional Data Center by More Than 2.5-Fold Traditional Data Center Cloud Data Center 8.4 Workloads per Server Average Workload Density X X Workloads per Server Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
18 Global Cloud Traffic Growth Cloud Traffic Will Quadruple from 2014 to % CAGR Zettabytes per Year Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
19 Global Cloud Traffic by Region North America to Have Highest Traffic Volume by 2019 MEA to Experience Highest Traffic Growth North America 2014: 888 Exabytes 2019: 3.6 Zettabytes CAGR 33% Western Europe 2014: 390 Exabytes 2019: 1.5 Zettabytes CAGR 31% Central & Eastern Europe 2014: 90 Exabytes 2019: 447 Exabytes CAGR 38% Latin America 2014: 103 Exabytes 2019: 399 Exabytes CAGR 31% Middle East & Africa 2014: 50 Exabytes 2019: 280 Exabytes CAGR 41% Asia Pacific 2014: 588 Exabytes 2019: 2.3 Zettabytes CAGR 32% Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
20 Global Data Center Traffic: Traditional vs. Cloud Cloud Accounts for More Than 80% of Traffic by Traditional Data Center (5% CAGR) Cloud Data Center (33% CAGR) 17% 25% CAGR Zettabytes per Year % 39% 61% Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
21 Private vs. Public Cloud Hybrid Cloud is a Combination of Private and Public Clouds Enterprise Network Service Provider Network Private Cloud Hybrid Cloud Public Cloud Cisco Cloud owned and managed by Cisco for its own employees, customers and partners. AT&T, Verizon, Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, Salesforce, Google. 21
22 Private Cloud vs. Public Cloud By 2018 Public Cloud will Surpass Private Cloud 300 Public Cloud Data Center (44% CAGR) 27% CAGR Private Cloud Data Center (16% CAGR) Installed Workloads in Millions % 70% 48% 52% 52% 48% 56% 44% * 2019 Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
23 Workload Density Private Cloud Will Outpace Traditional Data Center by More Than 3-Fold Traditional Data Center Public Cloud Data Center Private Cloud Data Center 10.1 Average Workload Density Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
24 Cloud Service Models Software as a Service (SaaS) Applications Data Middleware Operating System Virtualization Servers Storage Networking Platform as a Service (PaaS) Applications Data Middleware Operating System Virtualization Servers Storage Networking Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Applications Data Middleware Operating System Virtualization Servers Storage Networking Cloud Customer Manages Cloud Provider Manages 24
25 Global Cloud Workloads SaaS Most Popular Cloud Service Model Through 2019 Installed Workloads in Millions SaaS (34% CAGR) IaaS (19% CAGR) PaaS (21% CAGR) 11% 28% 59% 13% 42% 45% % CAGR Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
26 Global Private Cloud Workloads SaaS Most Adopted Cloud Service Model by 2019; Grows the Fastest PaaS (3% CAGR) IaaS (-6% CAGR) 8% 16% CAGR SaaS (31% CAGR) 16% Installed Workloads in Millions % 45% 76% % Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
27 Global Public Cloud Workloads SaaS Most Popular Cloud Service Model Through 2019; IaaS Grows Fastest Installed Workloads in Millions PaaS (49% CAGR) IaaS (50% CAGR) SaaS (39% CAGR) 13% 41% 44% CAGR % 46% 34% 55% Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
28 SaaS Example Collaboration in the Cloud An Internal Analysis A Typical Business Day at Cisco using WebEx ~ 50K MEETINGS ~ 140K HOURS ~ 180K ATTENDEES From August 2014 to August % increase in monthly meetings 18% increase in monthly meeting minutes 17% increase in monthly attendees Mobile attendees using WebEx are 5% and growing 28
29 SaaS Example Collaboration in the Cloud An External Analysis A Typical Business Day at New York using WebEx ~ 50K Meetings ~ 111K Hours ~ 175K Attendees End-User Traffic: 48 TB Data Center Traffic: 111 TB A Typical Business Day at Kansas City using WebEx ~ 11K Meetings ~ 25K Hours ~ 40K Attendees End-User Traffic: 11 TB Data Center Traffic: 25 TB Traffic Across Different Verticals End-User Traffic*: Data Center Traffic*: Healthcare 1.4 TB 3.2 TB * Data includes US specific information on a per day basis Engineering 1 TB 2.4 TB Education Banking 0.4 TB 0.6 TB 0.9 TB 1.3 TB Sources: Cisco Tahoe Call Detail Records and Netflow data, Cisco Global Cloud Index
30 Applications/ Workload Diversity Growth in M2M Connections Drive New Data Analytics Need Hi No Complex Analytics Frequency of Communications Smart Metering Retail Goods Monitoring and Payment Fleet Management Manufacturing & Processing Emergency Services Commercial Appliances Public Transport Environment & Public Safety Potential Analytics Requirement Complex Real Time Analytics Required Complex Analytics of Aggregated Data Lo Land Agriculture Telemedicine In-Vehicle Entertainment & Internet Access Lo Average Traffic Per Connection *Size of the bubble represents total M2M connections for each application Hi Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, ; Machina Research 30
31 Growth in Residential Internet Use Drives Personal Cloud Storage Residential Internet Users / Population 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% APAC CEE LATAM MEA WE Consumer Devices Per Capita * Size of the bubble represents region s personal cloud storage penetration as a % of its residential internet population NA Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
32 Global Personal Cloud Storage Majority, 55%, of Residential Internet Users Will Use Cloud Storage by ,500 12% CAGR Consumers in Millions 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,136 1,355 1,571 1,740 1,898 2, Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, ; Juniper Research 32
33 Global Personal Cloud Storage Traffic* Exabytes per Year *Personal cloud storage traffic includes personal content lockers, cloud back-up etc., and does not include cloud DVR 23% CAGR Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
34 The Universe of Data is High Volume, High Velocity, and Distributed Total data generated by all people, machines and things: (projected snapshot for 2019) 43 Zettabytes per Month 507 Zettabytes per Year Total business/personal data stored in any location: (projected snapshot for 2019) 3.5 Zettabytes (Less than 1%) 34
35 What Makes a Smart City? Multiple Applications Create Big Data Connected Plane 40 TB per day (0.1% transmitted) Intelligent Building 250 GB per day (1% transmitted) Connected Factory 1 PB per day (0.2% transmitted) Public Safety 50 PB per day (<0.1% transmitted) A city of one million will generate 180 million gigabytes of data per day by 2019 Smart Hospital 3 TB per day (0.1% transmitted) Smart Car 50 GB per day (0.1% transmitted) Weather Sensors 10 MB per day (5% transmitted) Smart Grid 5 GB per day (1% transmitted) Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
36 Total Stored Data The volume of all data stored will more than double by 2019 from 1.4 ZB to 3.5 ZB. Most data is stored on client devices, but more moves to the data center over time % Client Devices or M2M 12% DC 1.4 ZB % Client Devices or M2M 18% DC 3.5 ZB Data Stored on Client Devices (PCs, Tablets, Phones, M2M ) Data Stored in Data Centers % 49% 8% 8% 9% 14% PCs Smartphones Tablets M2M External Storage Other 863 EB per mo Data at Rest (Stored) Data in Motion (Traffic) Stored data on M2M modules grows the fastest at 89% CAGR Traffic 39% higher than stored in 2019, 71% in EB 36
37 Storage Constraints Drive Cloud Smartphone Traffic Exceeds Data Stored on Smartphones by 2016 Exabytes per Year Smartphone Storage Capacity (28% CAGR) Smartphone Traffic (62% CAGR) The Necessity of the Cloud Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
38 Cloud Readiness Security Internet Ubiquity Network Speeds and Latency Analysis 38
39 Cloud Data Security IaaS PaaS SaaS Role of Cloud Provider: Manage virtual machines Ensure fail over services Regulatory compliance Manage multiple copies of software platforms on single piece of hardware Role of Cloud Provider: Protecting data Ensure fail over services Regulatory compliance Provide secure development tools Role of Cloud Provider: Managing access to applications, data, middleware, storage, networking Security action: Governance framework on how VMs are used Trusting the virtual machine image Hardening hosts Securing inter-host communication Managing application keys Audit trail of VMs and management Security action: Data transfer and encryption of user managed data Managing application keys Additional requirements for handling of sensitive information Security action: Focus on establishing controls regarding users access to application Protect API keys Avoid single sign on, use strong passwords, certificates 39
40 Profiling Cloud Security Breaches 47% of Cloud Sensitive Data Loss Incidents Involve Confidential Data 47% 11% 14% 28% Payment data Personally identifiable information Protected health information Confidential data Source: SkyHigh Cloud Adoption & Risk Report (Q3 2015) 40
41 Enabling Authentication and Secure Internet Percentage of Secure Internet Servers to All Web Facing Servers Western Europe 50% North America 27% Asia Pacific 23% Middle East and Africa 10% Latin America 13% Central and Eastern Europe 29% 41
42 Regional Internet Access Ubiquity (2014) 100% Fixed Internet Penetration 80% WE NA 60% CEE 40% LATAM APAC 20% MEA 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Mobile Internet Penetration Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
43 Regional Internet Access Ubiquity (2019) 100% 80% NA WE Fixed Internet Penetration 60% 40% 20% MEA LATAM APAC CEE 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mobile Internet Penetration Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index,
44 Global Cloud Readiness Business and Consumer Apps/Network Requirements Basic Cloud Apps Intermediate Cloud Apps Advanced Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: Up to 750 kbps Upload Speed: Up to 250 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms Network Requirements: Download Speed: 751 2,500 kbps Upload Speed: 251 1,000 kbps Latency: ms Network Requirements: Download Speed: Higher than 2,500 kbps Upload Speed: Higher than 1,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms 44
45 Regional End-User Cloud Readiness (2015) Supporting Business and Consumer Applications on Fixed Networks* In 2015, 119 countries met the advanced single application readiness criteria for fixed networks, compared to 109 countries last year. * Non-Concurrent Apps 45
46 Regional End-User Cloud Readiness (2015) Supporting Business and Consumer Applications on Mobile Networks* In 2015, 81 countries met the advanced single application readiness criteria for mobile networks, compared to 21 countries last year. * Non-Concurrent Apps 46
47 Global Cloud Readiness Business and Consumer Network Requirements for Concurrent Apps Basic Cloud Apps Concurrent Support Intermediate Cloud Apps Concurrent Support Advanced Cloud Apps Concurrent Support Network Requirements: Network Requirements: Network Requirements: Download Speed: 1900 kbps Download Speed: ,999 kbps Download Speed: 21,000 kbps Upload Speed: 600 kbps Upload Speed: 601 8,999 kbps Upload Speed: 9,000 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms Stream basic video/music Latency: ms + SD Video conferencing + Latency: Less than 100 ms Virtual office Text communications Personal content locker Connected medicine VOIP HD Video streaming HD Video conferencing Web browsing Electronic health records Stream ultra HD video Web conferencing ERP/CRM High frequency stock trading Cloud based learning management system VoLTE Connected car safety applications 47
48 Regional End-User Cloud Readiness (2015) Supporting Business and Consumer Applications on Fixed Networks (Concurrent Apps) Basic Cloud Application Ready Intermediate Cloud Application Ready Advanced Cloud Application Ready High CEE Sweden Average Broadband Speed WE APAC NA USA Norway Finland LATAM Low High MEA Latency Low 48
49 Regional End-User Cloud Readiness (2015) Supporting Business and Consumer Applications on Mobile Networks (Concurrent Apps) Basic Cloud Application Ready Intermediate Cloud Application Ready Advanced Cloud Application Ready High Singapore Average Broadband Speed CEE NA Japan South Korea Netherlands MEA LATAM APAC WE Low High Latency Low 49
50 Latency Key for Cloud Applications: Asynchronous vs Synchronous Storage Asynchronous Synchronous Personal Content Locker Standard Backup Asynchronous Storage Latency 100 ms Disaster Recovery Systems Data and Transaction Replication Synchronous Storage Latency 5 ms 50
51 Fixed Overall Network Characteristics (2015) 3 rd Mean DL nd Median DL rd Mean UL rd Median UL 4,8 4 th Mean DL th Median DL th Mean UL th Median UL st Mean DL rd Median DL st Mean UL st Median UL 13.5 North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe 5 th Mean DL th Median DL th Mean UL th Median UL th Mean DL th Median DL th Mean UL th Median UL nd Mean DL st Median DL nd Mean UL nd Median UL 9.3 Latin America Middle East and Africa Asia Pacific 51
52 Mobile Overall Network Characteristics (2015) 1 st Mean DL st Median DL nd Mean UL 6.5 1st Median UL nd Mean DL nd Median DL th Mean UL th Median UL th Mean DL th Median DL st Mean UL nd Median UL 3.5 North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe 5 th Mean DL th Median DL th Mean UL th Median UL th Mean DL th Median DL th Mean UL th Median UL rd Mean DL rd Median DL rd Mean UL rd Median UL 3.3 Latin America Middle East and Africa Asia Pacific 52
53 Cisco Global Cloud Index Where to Find More Information / Direct Questions Please direct GCI questions to: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com Media Release GCI White Paper Cloud Readiness Report GCI Q&A GCI Highlights Tool Cloud Readiness Tool 53
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