Russian Gas: Challenges Ahead on the Domestic Front, Platts European Gas Summit, September 20th 2013

Transcription

1 Russian Gas: Challenges Ahead on the Domestic Front, Platts European Gas Summit, September 2th 213 Vladimir Drebentsov Vice President, BP Russia, Head of Russia and CIS Economics, BP plc

2 Production and domestic consumption St Bcm Forecast 8 7 Production Consumption 6 5 Gazprom Novatek Other producers Oil com panies PSA Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, BP 23 Global Energy Outlook, CDUTEK (Central Dispatch Unit of Ministry of Energy)

3 Gas and coal supply to the power sector Mln toe Gas Coal Source: CDU TEK

4 Gas net-storage in Russia and abroad St Bcm Storage change, Russia Storage change, abroad Source: Gazprom

5 Russian gas flows to Europe St Bcm 2 Exports range Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: CDU TEK

6 Russian gas flows to CIS St Bcm 1 min 6-1 Exports range Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: CDU TEK

7 Gas exports by destination 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Other CIS Asia-Pacific Belorussia Ukraine Europe 3% 2% 1% % H213 Source: CDU TEK

8 Gas production St Bcm Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: CDU TEK

9 Gas production per company (incl. APG) St Bcm 25 1H212 1H Below 1 bcm Source: CDU TEK

10 Associated petroleum gas production and flaring 1% 8% 6% 4% Flared Production 2% % H213 Source: CDU TEK

11 Gazprom s production per fields St Bcm 5 45 Other fields Other Yamal (Noyabrsk) Medvezhye and Bovanenkovskoye Urengoy 1 5 Source: RPI Yamburg

12 Russian gas prices still vary a lot by the market $/MmBtu 12. Russia FSU RoW Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 Source: Gazprom

13 Domestic gas sales and prices $/MmBtu Industry Domestic sales structure Households Weighted Average Power Metallurgy 28% 7% 7% 22% Other Fertilizers 21% 15% Households Communal services Source: Gazprom

14 Wholesale gas prices by country, 212 Source: :Wholesale Gas Price Survey Edition, International Gas Union

15 Mineral extraction tax rate for gas 211= $.25/ MmBtu Gazprom Others Source: Tax Code

16 Gazprom is still heavily dependent on European gas exports 212 Gazprom gas sales: St Bcm Europe 32.3% Domestic 53.5% FSU 14.2% Revenue: $85.5 billion Direct Taxes Paid: $11.4 billion Europe 54.6% Domestic 26.5% Europe 52.9% Domestic 24% FSU 18.9% FSU 23.1% Source: Gazprom, CDUTEK

17 Sources of Gazprom s revenue $ billion Other Transportation of gas Crude oil and condensate Electricity and heating Oil and gas products Gas sales Source: Gazprom

18 Gas reserves by company St Bcm 4, 4, 3, 2, 1, 17% 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Slavneft Russneft Lukoil Rosneft Novatek Gazprom 212 Source: companies financial statements and annual reports

19 Gazprom and Novatek CAPEX dynamics Bln USD % 5-1.9% % +42.9% % Gazprom Novatek % -55.9% +52.1% +23.3% +32.1% Source: Gazprom, Novatek

20 Gazprom s CAPEX breakdown $ billion Other Storage Retail distribution Power and heating Production of oil Gas processing Gas production Pipelines Source: Gazprom

21 New export routes for Russian gas in Europe Yamal-Europe Distance: over 2 km Capacity: 33 bln m 3 North Stream Stage 1, 2 capacity: 55 bcm Further extension (st 2.3) is under consideration Yamal-Europe II Distance: 6 km Planned capacity: 15 bcm Feasibility study due in Oct 213 Blue Stream-2 Distance: 1213 km (sea) Planned Capacity: 16 bcm South Stream Distance: 9 km (sea) Planned capacity: 63 bcm Source: Gazprom, Platts

22 to Krasnoyarsk region New Gas in Eastern Siberia and Far East Krasnoyarsk gas production center Reserves - 87 bcm Max production 16.9 bcm Reserves - 2 bcm Max production - 4 bcm Reserves 124 bcm Max production 5 bcm Reserves - 9 bcm Max production - 35 bcm Reserves 16 bcm Max production 7.5 bcm up to 38 bcm Sakhalin-2 LNG Capacity: 13 bcm up to 1 bcm Launch: 218 Planned capacity: 6.8 bcm Sakhalin-2 LNG Expansion up to 2.4 bcm Project is under consideration Source: Gazprom

23 Russia s CNG Production St Bcm H213 Source: CDU TEK

24 Small-scale LNG Plants in Russia Kaliningrad 1) Announced: September, 212 Launch: 213/14 Planned capacity:.34 bcm 2) In consideration Planned capacity:.2 bcm Petrodvorets Launch: 1996 Capacity:.12 bcm Kingisepp Launch: 28 Capacity:.1 bcm Novgorod Announced: October, 212 Launch: 214 Planned capacity:.76 bcm St Petersburg Smolensk Announced: April, 213 Launch: 214 Planned capacity:.2 bcm Moscow Perm Launch: winter, 213/14 Planned capacity:.2 bcm Kargal (Tomsk oblast) Announced: February, 213 Launch: n/a Planned capacity:.3 bcm Tambov Announced: September, 212 Launch: 214 Planned capacity:.41 bcm Pervouralsk Launch: 22 Capacity:.6 bcm Yekaterinburg Launch: 21 Capacity:.35 bcm Source: IHS CERA

25 Results of drilling for coal seam gas in Russia Taldynsk coal seam gas field A Expected debit, m 3 /day B Actual debit, m 3 /day B 1, 3 Upper layers 2, 4 Lower layers Source: Oil and Gas Geology, N3, 213