THE STATE OF FREIGHT: RAIL AND INTERMODAL

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1 Larry Gross Partner FTR THE STATE OF FREIGHT: RAIL AND INTERMODAL Railtrends Conference Nov 19, 1

2 11/19/15 DISCUSSION OVERVIEW Economic Indicators State of Freight orail Carload ointermodal (with a truck detour) Fearless Forecast 3 ECONOMY 2

3 MANUFACTURING IS STILL (BARELY) POSITIVE ISM MANUFACTURING VS IP MANUFACTURING ISM Manufacturing Index (>50 = Growth) Industrial ProducIon: Manufacturing (2012=100) Source: FTR, ISM, Federal Reserve 5 5 BUSINESSES: STUCK IN THE MUD ORDERS & INVENTORIES Core Capital Goods Orders $75 Inventory- to- Retail Sales RaIo 1.50 $70 $65 $60 $55 $50 $ Source: Census Bureau 6 3

4 CONSTRUCTION: ROOM TO GROW RESIDENTIAL VS. BUSINESS ConstrucIon Spending $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $ Business Spending back to pre-recession peak, long way to go for Residential Source: FTR, Census Bureau 7 GDP RECOVERY LENGTH 6 Growth In GDP During Recoveries 1961 Beginning Of Recovery = Current Forecast Forecast Length Expressed In Timing of Current Recovery Source: FTR Associates 8 4

5 Rail Carload RAIL CARLOADS HAVE BEEN WEAK SINCE LATE WINTER 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% -2% -4% -6% -8% -1-12% N.A. Total Carloads Week Ending 10/31/ Thousands Source: AAR Carloads Vs. Prev. Year Carloads Source: AAR 10 5

6 H2 TO DATE N.A. CARLOADS (EXCL. IM) VERSUS SAME PERIOD 2014 (440) (215) (124) (6) (18) (34) (13) (40) (3) (5) (2) (1) (0) (11) (28) Total Intermodal (Platforms) Other Commodities Other Waste & Scrap Metal Scrap Motor Vehicles & Equip Metals & Metal Products Coke Stone, Clay, Glass Petroleum Products Chemicals Pulp & Paper Lumber & Wood Products Primary Forest Products Food Products Grain Mill Products Non-Metallic Minerals Crushed Stone, Sand, Gravel Coal Metallic Ores Farm Prod. Excl Grain Grain Source: AAR, FTR 11 EXCLUDING SPECIALS (GRAIN, COAL, CRUDE) INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY STILL LOOKS WEAK 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% -2% -4% -6% -8% -1 N.A. Total Carloads Week Ending 10/31/ Thousands Source: AAR Carloads Vs. Prev. Year Carloads Source: AAR, FTR 12 6

7 SERVICE RECOVERY IS TAKING HOLD AVERAGE TRAIN SPEED 4 Week Moving Average IM Train Speed - MPH Week Avg. Train Speeds - Total Network Week Average SERVICE RECOVERY IS TAKING HOLD YARD DWELL 4 Week Moving Average IM Train Speed - MPH Week Avg. Yard Dwell - Total Network Week Average

8 TOTAL VOLUME REMAINS WELL BELOW 2006 ALL-TIME PEAK (EVEN WITH IM) Total Carload Trend including IM PlaCorms Year To Date = Total Carloads Total IM PlaCorms Grand Total PLUNGING FUEL SURCHARGE HAS OFFSET INCREASES IN BASE RATES RAIL CARLOAD RATES (Y/Y %) 7% Y/Y % Change 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% -2% -3% Less FSC [Bar] Total Rate [Line] 09/ / / / / / / 06/ 09/ 12/ 03/ / /2016 Source: FTR; Copyright 2014 Data is seasonally adjusted; excludes Intermodal 16 8

9 POSSIBLE SOURCES OF IMPROVEMENT Lumber (Strengthening residenial construcion outlook) Chemicals (Petrochemical investment fueled by low prices late 2016 and beyond? Intermodal Probably not enough to fill the hole. 17 CARLOAD VOLUME WILL SHRINK THIS YEAR AND ONLY GROW A BIT IN 2016 Y/Y % Change Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q Q2 Carloads 1.4% -6.3% -4.6% -5.8% -1.1% 4.9% Y/Y % Change Excludes Intermodal Carloads 3.2% -3.9% 1.3% Source: FTR Freightcast 18 9

10 11/19/15 Intermodal TRUCK LOADINGS FORECAST Modest freight growth expected going forward 4.2% 3.3% 3. 9% 6% 3% -3% -6% -9% -12% -15% Y/Y Percent Change U.S. Truck Loadings Originated Dry van will be even lower! Source: FTR Trucking Update Report 20 10

11 THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF REGULATIONS WILL BE SEVERE Thousands (50) Additional Driver Hires Per Quarter Required By Regulation Electronic Stability Controls Speed Limiters Training Provisions OSHA Worker Protection Minimum Insurance Safe Harbor Entry Proficiency Drug & Alcohol Data Base/Hair testing Prohibition Of Coercion Pattern Of Violation Independent Contractor Rules Safe Food Transportation Motor Carrier Protection Act HOS ELD Health Regulations and Treatment Immigration Effects Mexico Regional Equipment Source: FTR CSA 21 TRUCKING RATES OUTLOOK Source: FTR Shippers Update Report 22 11

12 INTERMODAL HEADLINES DomesIc intermodal faces headwinds InternaIonal returns to normal Import diversion coninues Service recovery begins to take hold Overcapacity crisis on the water 23 VOLUME HAS STABILIZED SINCE THE END OF THE USWC MELTDOWN Total Intermodal: Rev. Moves - Actual (000's) Total (Left Axis) International (Right Axis) Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Sources: GTC, FTR, IANA; Copyright Domestic (Right Axis) Sources: IANA ETSO, GTC, FTR Copyright 24 12

13 INTERMODAL GROWTH HAS SLOWED 15% 1 Total Intermodal: Year/Year % Change Total +3.2% YTD (Left Axis) 5% -5% Domestic +3.3% YTD (Right Axis) -1-15% Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Sources: GTC, FTR, IANA; Copyright International +3.2% YTD (Right Axis) Sources: IANA ETSO, GTC, FTR Copyright 25 SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS SHOW DOMESTIC NOT GROWING Seasonally Adjusted Rev. Moves (000) International (Right Axis) Domestic (Right Axis) Total (Left Axis) Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Sources: GTC, FTR, IANA; Copyright Current 12 Months Sources: IANA ETSO, GTC, FTR Copyright 26 13

14 OCTOBER WAS SEASONALLY NORMAL FOR DOMESTIC BUT NOT INT L Seasonality - International - 12% October Volume % vs. Average Month 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 6.6% 1.9% Volume % vs. Average Month Seasonality - Domestic - 16% October 14% 10.3% 12% % 8% 6% 4% 2% Source: AAR 27 INTERMODAL SERVICE IS IMPROVING 4 Week Moving Average IM Train Speed - MPH Week Avg. Intermodal Train Speeds - Total Network Week Average

15 NORTH AMERICAN IMPORTS ARE UP EXPORTS ARE NOT 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% -5% -1-15% Summary: N.A. Port Activity - Y/Y Change Total Imports Exports Seasonally Adjusted N.A. Imports TEUs 5 2, Source s: FTR, GTC, Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Month/Month Change Seasonally Adjusted Imports 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Sources: Port Reports, FTR 29 INTERMODAL CONTINUES TO GAIN MARKET SHARE OF U.S. LONG-HAUL DRY VAN % % % % 7. U.S. Intermodal Market Share Domestic % % % % 7. U.S. Intermodal Market Share International Sources: GTC, FTR, IANA ETSO Data Sources: GTC, FTR, ETSO Report 30 15

16 DOMESTIC STILL IS FACING A NUMBER OF HEADWINDS Slowing growth in demand for long- haul dry van transport Ample truck capacity available for now Lower fuel prices erode intermodal cost advantage 31 ISSUES ABOUND ON THE OCEAN SubstanIal over- capacity due to overbuilding Ø Lower prices but lower service reliability due to blanked voyages Port congesion coninues Some progress on chassis front but sill problemaic Panama Canal expansion schedule sill a quesion No ILA Contract will be signed this year Port cartage under stress Ø Independent contractor model is under threat Ø Port congesion issues causing producivity loss Ø Driver availability/cost a big concern 32 16

17 RAIL INTERMODAL RATES 8% Rate Outlook: Intermodal 6% Y/Y % Change 4% 2% - 2% - 4% - 6% Rev/Load (w/o FSC) Rev/Load (w/ FSC) 09/ /2013 Source: FTR; Copyright 03/ / / / / 06/ 09/ 12/ 03/ / /2016 Source: FTR Intermodal Update Report 33 INTERMODAL GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE, BUT AT A SLOWER PACE Y/Y % Change Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q Q2 International 0.6% 6.8% % -1.2% Domestic 5.6% 2.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% 3.5% Total 3.1% 4.5% 3.4% 4.4% 6.3% 1. Y/Y % Change International 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.7% Domestic 5.1% 3.3% 3.6% 6.6% Total 4.8% 3.9% 3.9% 5.6% Source: FTR Freightcast 34 17

18 FTR Transportation Conference September 13-15, 2016 Indianapolis, IN Hand me a business card and I will be happy to send you a copy of this presentation Or download at 35 Stay Connected Blog: blog.ftrintel.com FTRintel.com/SOFTODAY Stay in Contact ftr@ftrintel.com

19 Thanks! Larry Gross Partner FTR THE STATE OF FREIGHT: RAIL AND INTERMODAL Railtrends Conference Nov 19, 19

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