Bandwidth Boom Technology and Public Policy in the exaflood Era

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1 Bandwidth Boom Technology and Public Policy in the exaflood Era ALEC. Atlanta. 16 July 2009 ENTROPY ECONOMICS GLOBAL INNOVATION + TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH Bret Swanson entropyeconomics.com bretswanson.com

2 Bandwidth Boom Technology and Public Policy in the exaflood Era The new Internet paradigm Understanding the pace of technology Implications for public policy

3 Internet s Three Phases Phase One Arpanet in 1969 Phase Two Net comes to the masses in 1995 via and World Wide Web Phase Three Now! Broadband means the network is the computer... Video ushers in the exaflood

4 Prefixes kilo = 10 3 mega = 10 6 giga = 10 9 tera = peta = exa = zetta = 10 21

5 Bandwidth Boom U.S. Consumer Bandwidth Total U.S. Consumer Bandwidth terabits per second gigabits per second gigabits per second residential + wireless residential wireless

6 Bandwidth Boom 2500 Between 2000 and 2008: U.S. Consumer Bandwidth Per Capita 2.35 megabits per second 2000 Total residential bandwidth grew 54x. Total wireless bandwidth grew 542x. Total consumer bandwidth grew 91x. kilobits per second Residential bandwidth per capita grew 50x. Wireless bandwidth per capita grew 499x. Total consumer bandwidth per capita grew 84x, for a compound annual growth rate of 74%. residential residential + wireless wireless

7 What is an exabyte? The Library of Congress holds about 20 million big books Each book is about 1 megabyte The Library of Congress is thus 20 terabytes One exabyte is 50,000 Libraries of Congress

8 2007 projection for 2015 exaflood Analyzing bandwidth and digital application trends, we projected a 56% compound annual growth rate through when U.S. IP traffic could reach: Movie downloads and P2P exabytes Video calling and virtual windows exabytes Cloud computing and remote backup...50 exabytes Net video, gaming, and virtual worlds exabytes Non-Internet IPTV.100+ exabytes Business IP traffic.100 exabytes Other (phone, Web, , photos, music)...50 exabytes Total 1,000 exabytes = 1 zettabyte

9 Video conferencing MSN Messenger Video Calling by mid-2007 generated 4 petabytes per month = to the entire Net in 1997 Cisco s new Telepresence requires 15 Mbps symmetrical bandwidth A one-hour conference call = 13.5 gigabytes Just 75 of these calls would equal the entire Internet of exabytes of telephone traffic each year move to video-phones would mean 400 exabytes at least in the U.S., or 10x the size of the existing world Internet

10 U.S. Internet Traffic TB/month 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000, , , ,000 0 American Legislative Exchange Council 2009 Atlanta, Georgia July 16, 2009 Bret Swanson Entropy Economics entropyeconomics.com bretswanson.com Source: MINTS

11 10,000,000 1,000,000 U.S. Internet Traffic (log scale) 100,000 10,000 1,000 TB/month American Legislative Exchange Council 2009 Atlanta, Georgia July 16, 2009 Bret Swanson Entropy Economics entropyeconomics.com bretswanson.com Source: MINTS

12 update exaflood YouTube > receives uploads of 13+ hours of video every minute > receives 18,720+ hours of video each day > streams ~150+ petabytes per month > streams ~3.5 terabytes every minute... every 13 min. = 1992 > HD YouTube would mean more than 18 exabytes per year, equal to total U.S. Internet traffic of 2008 > Netflix would ship about 7 exabytes of HD video each year Mobile revolution > 3 billion mobile phones / 1+ billion new devices per year > 1.9 billion camera phones / Nokia largest camera company > 1 billion iphone App downloads in six months... 50,000 Apps > omnichronnectivity yields constant content creation and consumption / new iphone video recorder > Cisco projects a 66-fold increase in mobile data by 2013 (131% CAGR)

13 exacloud "When the network becomes as fast as the processor, the computer hollows out and spreads across the network." Eric Schmidt, circa 1993 The Network is the Computer. Sun Microsystems American Legislative Exchange Council... Atlanta, Georgia July 16, Bret Swanson Entropy Economics

14 exacloud OTOY and building Fusion Render Cloud Petaflops supercomputer with 1,000 GPUs Renders: up to 8,000 x 8,000 compressed up to 120 frames/second into any Web browser Streams: any interactive video experience... at any resolution... to any device American Legislative Exchange Council... Atlanta, Georgia July 16, Bret Swanson Entropy Economics

15 exacloud AMD/Otoy/LightStage Fusion Render Cloud Burbank, California IBM Roadrunner Los Alamos National Lab Los Alamos, New Mexico 1,000 GPUs 1/20 19,500 CPUs 5 racks 1/100 6,000 square feet 150 kw 1/ MW ~ $4 million 1/33 $133 million 1+ petaflops = petaflops American Legislative Exchange Council... Atlanta, Georgia July 16, Bret Swanson Entropy Economics

16 exacloud OTOY / Fusion Render Cloud Video games Virtual worlds Cinema 2.0 > preview before purchase > rolling release, constant updates > no DVDs, no piracy > play on any device, from home theater to mobile phone > fully interactive 3D immersive experience, evolves over time > interactive entertainment > video game or motion picture? Or both? American Legislative Exchange Council... Atlanta, Georgia July 16, Bret Swanson Entropy Economics

17 40 hours vs. Right Now photorealistic 3D... rendered in real-time

18 LightStage Ultra high-resolution capture and rendering of 3D photo-realistic real-time images for movies, TV, and the Web

19 Forget virtual reality. Just reality. Emily

20 1989 the most powerful computer ever! 20 MHz 2 MB RAM for only $ ($15,000 in 09 USD) monitor and mouse not included

21 U.S. Internet traffic 1992 = 48 terabytes 2008 = 20 exabytes 2018 ~ 3 zettabytes 2024 ~ pervasive real-time photorealistic 3D holographic virtual worlds World Internet traffic 1992 = 48 terabytes 2008 = 60 exabytes 2018 ~ 12 zettabytes 2024 ~ pervasive real-time photorealistic 3D holographic virtual worlds

22 Digital Storage terabyte ~ $5,000, terabyte = $ terabyte ~ $ petabyte ~ $ all history s TV and radio on your laptop Flash memory gigabyte ~ $1,000,000 (iphone ~ $5 million) gigabyte = $ (now $16.00) iphone will store 85 years worth of video

23 2009 The Hard Drive Dilemma TB was around US$5,000,000 July TB was an astoundingly cheap US$ January TB drive was an amazing US$109.99

24 Biology DNA base pair = $ DNA base pair = $ DNA base pair ~ $ One genome for $100 (yours if you like) + a full-body MRI scan for free

25 China GDP GDP = $328 billion... like Greece or Denmark today GDP ~ $ 4 trillion... will overtake Japan next year for world s # GDP ~ $10 trillion GDP ~ $16 trillion... larger than U.S. today communications hardly any Chinese had ever made a phone call China has twice as many mobile phone subscribers as the U.S. has people trade U.S.-China trade = $ 33 billion U.S.-China trade = $400 billion

26 Web In 2015, the U.S., Europe, and Asia could each transmit the equivalent of 2 Libraries of Congress every second for the entire year.

27 Mobile Health Phone is most personal device BAN Body Area Network Remote diagnostics, monitoring, presence, reminders, family updates ECG, apnea, coumadin Replace many large devices with small sensors, phone, and cloud diagnostics as a service

28 U.S. Info-tech Investment info-tech investment = $455 billion ~ 22% of capital investment ~ 43% of non-structure capital investment billions of U.S. $ Software Communications Equipment Computers + Peripherals Communications Structures Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis American Legislative Exchange Council... Atlanta, Georgia July 16, Bret Swanson Entropy Economics

29 Thank you. Bandwidth Boom ALEC. Atlanta. 16 July 2009 ENTROPY ECONOMICS GLOBAL INNOVATION + TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH Bret Swanson entropyeconomics.com bretswanson.com

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