Software-Defined WAN Does Not Grow on WAN Alone

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1 MARKET FORECAST Software-Defined WAN Does Not Grow on WAN Alone OCT 2017 Jim Duffy, Senior Analyst, Networking Software-defined WAN is expected to undergo robust growth over the next few years, fueled by initial demands for simplifying WAN management and operations, and for lowering cost by harnessing broadband internet links. Further stoking that growth will be expansion of SD-WAN into broader offerings that spread its simplicity across the branch office network. This report assesses and details these opportunities for SD- WAN within the context of overall trends in enterprise networking and IT RESEARCH, LLC

2 ABOUT 451 RESEARCH 451 Research is a preeminent information technology research and advisory company. With a core focus on technology innovation and market disruption, we provide essential insight for leaders of the digital economy. More than 100 analysts and consultants deliver that insight via syndicated research, advisory services and live events to over 1,000 client organizations in North America, Europe and around the world. Founded in 2000 and headquartered in New York, 451 Research is a division of The 451 Group Research, LLC and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction and distribution of this publication, in whole or in part, in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The terms of use regarding distribution, both internally and externally, shall be governed by the terms laid out in your Service Agreement with 451 Research and/or its Affiliates. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. 451 Research disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although 451 Research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, 451 Research does not provide legal advice or services and their research should not be construed or used as such. 451 Research shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LONDON BOSTON 1411 Broadway Suite 3200 New York, NY P F Geary Street 9th Floor San Francisco, CA P F Paxton House (Ground floor) 30, Artillery Lane London, E1 7LS, UK P +44 (0) F +44 (0) Federal Street 5th Floor Boston, MA P F ABOUT THE AUTHOR JIM DUFFY SENIOR ANALYST, NETWORKING Jim Duffy is Senior Analyst for the Networking Channel at 451 Research. He covers enterprise network infrastructure and associated software, and network performance management. Jim has been covering technology for over 30 years, including 25 at Network World. His coverage focused predominantly on enterprise networking infrastructure, including routers, switches and associated software. II

3 Key Findings The automation and orchestration attributes and benefits of software-defined WAN (SD-WAN) can be extended to the entire branch network and IT infrastructure. Resources and discrete hardware elements and appliances at the branch, such as switches, wireless LANs, firewalls, WAN optimization devices, load balancers, authentication servers, intrusion detection and prevention systems, antivirus and anti-malware appliances, and IP private branch exchanges can be virtualized, operated and orchestrated as virtual network functions (VNFs) on a single x86 server hardware appliance. SD-WAN would then become a VNF just like any other in the branch network, yet the automation and orchestration aspects of SD-WAN controllers can be extended to these other VNFs as well. The result is essentially an SD-Branch in which all of the operational IT elements are virtualized and controlled by cloud-based orchestrators that currently handle only SD-WAN. Increasingly, SD-WAN is being tightly coupled with security either perimeter security in the form of integrated firewalls or firewall VNFs, or breakouts to cloud-based scrubbing and secure web gateways from Zscaler, Forcepoint or others. SD-WAN vendors are keen to form integration partnerships and brand marketing activities with firewall, IPS and antivirus companies, and the cloud-managed branch expansions typically include a suite of VNFs for security, SD-WAN and other networking services packaged as a single branch network offering. A chief selling point of SD-WAN is its simplicity, or the ability to take a complex branch office WAN architecture and make it easier to operate and manage. One way to make WAN networking simpler is to eschew routing protocols like BGP and OSPF. Unless peering with multiple ISPs or interoperating with legacy branch routers, routing protocols are considered unnecessary to establish connectivity to branch offices. Setting up IPSec tunnels over broadband internet links is considered the easiest way to configure a simple secure WAN. III

4 Executive Summary INTRODUCTION Software-defined WAN (SD-WAN) is the next-generation branch office network. It promises to disrupt the current status quo in wide area networking WANs connecting branch offices to regional and headquarters sites have been around for decades and are static, rigid and architecturally inflexible. They are ill-suited to the nimble, dynamic and on-demand characteristics of cloud computing, mobility, the Internet of Things (IoT) and as-a-service offerings (e.g., security, network), expensive to provision with traditional MPLS-only circuits and difficult to manage. The application of software-defined networking (SDN) to the network edge in the form of SD-WAN offers promise for dynamically adjusting bandwidth in real time. SD-WAN is also intended to help businesses control costs by using hybrid WAN MPLS, broadband internet and LTE and dynamic traffic steering to optimize bandwidth. Several drivers fuel its growth: ease of management, greater network flexibility and agility, automation and lower cost of operation using broadband and LTE VPNs, along with (and sometimes in place of) existing MPLS circuits. SD-WAN affects any enterprise with hundreds or thousands of branch office sites that are adopting cloud. Cloud will quickly exhaust the limits of MPLS. Static provisioning of MPLS circuits into the cloud is too time-consuming and expensive, given the requirement to backhaul traffic to the datacenter for policy assignment, enablement and enforcement. This is the antithesis of cloud computing, which is dynamic, on-demand and agile. Broadband internet offers orders of magnitude bandwidth increases at a fraction of the cost of MPLS, and a fraction of the time to establish connectivity the months required to turn up an MPLS circuit are reduced to minutes to set up an internet link with SD-WAN. But firing up best-effort internet access to the cloud wouldn t provide the application performance guarantees enterprises require for their mission-critical workloads. WAN access to the public cloud needs the same reliability, security and performance as private links into an enterprise datacenter. A key ingredient of SD-WAN product offerings is optimized connectivity to the public clouds like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Office 365, and Google Cloud, typically through a low-latency colocation interconnect like Equinix. As more workloads move to the cloud, and the cloud becomes an integral part of enterprise IT, it should become integrated with enterprise IT in much the same way that private networks, datacenters and other IT resources are. That means optimizing access to those resources as if they were owned by the private enterprise. SD-WAN makes it incumbent upon the enterprise to provide optimal connectivity to that cloud datacenter over less expensive and more dynamic broadband and LTE links as if these resources were part and parcel of the private enterprise WAN. But it s not all about cost savings from broadband internet or replacing MPLS. Indeed, it s more about augmentation of MPLS than replacement. And it s much more than transport. SD-WAN is about automating the configuration and operation of a complex network architecture. It s about integrating and orchestrating the chain of associated services for the entire branch office, not just the connectivity. It s about transitioning to a new way of networking to support a new way of conducting IT and business operations. The market potential for SD-WAN is more than just resourceful connectivity it s resourceful customer premises equipment (CPE), too. An emerging trend in enterprise networking is the cloud-managed branch. A typical branch office has a discrete appliance for a specific function, like firewall, IPS, application acceleration, antivirus, etc. Through the automation and orchestration in SD-WAN software, and in network virtualization of SDN in general, these discrete functions can be virtualized and hosted on commodity server hardware on the customer premises, and then orchestrated and managed from a controller in the SD-WAN cloud. This consolidation through virtualization can be further converged into a single network and security services VNF for the branch office that combines routing, firewall, antivirus, wireless LAN controller, etc. It can be intra- and inter-vnf service chained for elasticity depending on the requirements of the branch office at any given time. IV

5 SOFTWARE-DEFINED WAN DOES NOT GROW ON WAN ALONE So the potential for SD-WAN is broader than WAN connectivity. In addition to the branch router/edge router market, it affects branch office networking switches, wireless LANs, firewalls, application accelerators, WAN optimization, antivirus, authentication and more. SD-WAN is merely the first priority, or landing point for branch virtualization and automation. It promises to disrupt not only the old way of connecting remote sites to regional and headquarter sites, but the current way applications and network services are provisioned, delivered and processed at those sites. METHODOLOGY Reports such as this one represent a holistic perspective on key emerging markets in the enterprise IT space. These markets evolve quickly, though, so 451 Research offers additional services that provide critical marketplace updates. These updated reports and perspectives are presented on a daily basis via the company s core intelligence service, 451 Research Market Insight. Forward-looking M&A analysis and perspectives on strategic acquisitions and the liquidity environment for technology companies are also updated regularly via Market Insight, which is backed by the industry-leading 451 Research M&A KnowledgeBase. Emerging technologies and markets are covered in 451 Research channels including Cloud Transformation; Customer Experience & Commerce; Data Platforms & Analytics; Datacenters & Critical Infrastructure; Development, DevOps & IT Ops; Information Security; Internet of Things; Managed Services & Hosting; Mobile Telecom; Multi-Tenant Datacenters; Networking; Storage; Systems & Software Infrastructure; and Workforce Productivity & Compliance. Beyond that, 451 Research has a robust set of quantitative insights covered in products such as Voice of the Enterprise, Voice of the Connected User Landscape, Voice of the Service Provider, Cloud Price Index, Market Monitor, the M&A KnowledgeBase and the Datacenter KnowledgeBase. All of these 451 Research services, which are accessible via the web, provide critical and timely analysis specifically focused on the business of enterprise IT innovation. For more information about 451 Research, please go to: V

6 Table of Contents 1. WAN ROUTER MARKET IS REVITALIZED BY SD-WAN 1 CLOUD Figure 1: In Two Years, More than 60% of Workloads Will Run in Cloud MOBILITY Figure 2: Improving Responsiveness to Customers Is a Leading Driver of Mobility Investments IOT Figure 3: Mobile Device Tracking and Management Will Be a Major Driver for SD-WAN Adoption SDN UPTAKE Figure 4: By 2020, Two-Thirds of Enterprises Will Run Half Their Networking on SDNs THE WIDER AREA NETWORK 6 IMPLICATIONS FOR VENDORS IMPLICATIONS FOR SERVICE PROVIDERS IMPLICATIONS FOR ENTERPRISES MARKET SIZING Figure 5: Total SD-WAN Market Revenue and Projection to 2021 ($US) MARKET PREDICTIONS/VENDOR AND SERVICE PROVIDER PRIORITIES 9 4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 10 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CUSTOMERS RECOMMENDATIONS FOR VENDORS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS FURTHER READING INDEX OF COMPANIES 13 VI

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