Energy Security: A Global Challenge

Transcription

1 A presentation from the 2009 Topical Symposium: Energy Security: A Global Challenge Hosted by: The Institute for National Strategic Studies of The National Defense University September 2009 By SCOTT PUGH Papers presented at NDU Symposia reflect original research by members of NDU as well as other scholars and specialists in national security affairs from this country and abroad. The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government.

2 Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE JUL REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED to TITLE AND SUBTITLE Secure Grid A DHS-DOE-DOD Joint Exercise 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) National Defense University,Institute for National Strategic Studies,260 5th Avenue,Washington,DC, PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR S ACRONYM(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR S REPORT NUMBER(S) 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 2009 Topical Symposium: Energy Security: A Global Challenge, Sep 2009, Washington DC 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT a. REPORT unclassified b. ABSTRACT unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified Same as Report (SAR) 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 32 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18

3 Secure Grid 2009 A DHS-DOE DOE-DOD DOD Joint Exercise 9 &10 July 09 Hosted by National Defense University 1

4 POSSIBLE TERRORIST ROADMAP HIGHER IEDs Cyber? LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE LOWER?? Physical Critical Infrastructure Attack Gov t, economy, societal instability Chemical Radiological Trans Nat l Migration? Biological HIGHER Nuclear >>> LOWER CONSEQUENCE OF OCCURRENCE BOMBS, BORDERS, BUGS, BUSINESS, BODIES & BUILDINGS 2

5 Summarizing Energy Security Fossil Fuels Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal Ocean Energy Biomass Biofuels 3

6 Summarizing Energy Security Electricity Fossils Nuclear Renewables Oil 4

7 A DOD, DOE, DHS Joint Concern Critical national security and Homeland defense missions are at an unacceptably high risk of extended outage from failure of the grid. Dependence on a vulnerable commercial power grid may be a bigger risk to DOD than dependence on oil. 5

8 DOD Facility Islanding 6

9 Projected US Electric Demand 50% growth by 2030 US EIA AEO

10 50% Electricity Demand Growth By 2030 To preserve current electric fuel supply mix: > 2 / year 50 Nuclear reactors (1,000 MW) (104 today) Coal-fired plants (600 MW) Natural gas plants (400 MW) Renewables (100 MW) (~ 600) (~ 750) Source: 2006 Annual Energy Outlook, Energy Information Administration Bigger grid needed to accommodate growth. Smart grid needed to integrate renewables and manage demand. 8

11 North American Transmission Grid Transmission owned by over 500 independent companies. Generation supplied by over 3000 utilities. Canada HVDC Mexico HVDC HVDC HVDC 9

12 Grid Infrastructure Generators Circuit Breakers High Voltage Transformers 10

13 EHV Transformers 765kV 500kV 345kV US spares. 500KV and 765KV manufacturing capability tons. Lead time 6 to 18 months. 11

14 Chain link fence Person EHV Transformer 12

15 Moving EHV Transformers 13

16 Emergency Transformers 230 KV Mobile Transformer (Made in US) 14

17 Major US Grid Substations 15

18 16

19 System Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) System Utility Chain link fence City Internet Grid Control SCADA* HV Transmission Substation CB Towns CB 500KV 300 ton $10M transformer* CB Lines Power Plant Remotely located poorly protected. CB Industry CB = Circuit Breaker (remotely operable) 17

20 EHV Circuit Breakers 18

21 3 Phase Circuit Breaker Operation Power Plant +5000v -5000v v 1 = vac Grid +5000v -5000v In Phase v 1 = vac 19

22 3 Phase Circuit Breaker Operation Power Plant +5000v v 1 = vac -5000v Grid +5000v -5000v Out of Phase v 1 = vac 20

23 2007 Grid Cyber Test at INL Aurora 21

24 Large US Power Plants 22

25 Wargame Scenario 0500 Columbus attacked Terrorist group claims responsibility and issues demands through media. 23

26 Wargame Scenario 0900 Government evaluates options for protecting EHV transformers. 24

27 Wargame Scenario 1215 Cyber attack against a major utility SCADA system in US southeast. 25

28 Wargame Scenario 1220 effects of major utility loss propagate through the US eastern interconnection. 26

29 Wargame Scenario 1230 Columbus and most of Georgia, Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina are blacked out terrorist group claims responsibility and issues new demands. 27

30 Wargame Scenario??????????????? 1400 Government considers options Intel intercepts provide new info Game over. 28

31 DHS Recovery Transformer Program Single 3 phase 3 single phase Large & Heavy Smaller & Lighter Movable 29

32 Smart Grid Shift from coal to renewables is a big driver. 30

33 31 31