Little Development Holds Vacancy Low
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1 MARKET SUMMARY SUBURBAN MARYLAND OFFICE Fourth Quarter 2016 Little Development Holds Vacancy Low Market Indicators Q (Projected) NET Suburban Maryland has struck a note of balance that both Northern Virginia and Washington, DC have not yet reached. Despite the continued struggle of attracting regional tenants to Maryland, restrained smart development focused in excellent locations has kept vacancy relatively stable. The NIH deals at 1 and 2 Rockledge Drive highlighted the end of the quarter and the year when they collectively signed for just under 500,000 square feet in the Rockville submarket. While highly unlikely that the NIH would look outside of Maryland, it is still important that Maryland as a whole retains the large tenants already in the area. With a fighting chance at getting the massive FBI consolidation at one of the two locations put up within the market, Maryland s near future looks the most optimistic in many years. This is the second consecutive quarter that a large private sector deal was signed. T-Rex Consulting Corporation leased 126,000 square feet at 7601 Ora Glen Drive in the Greenbelt submarket. Much like the 2U deal last quarter, T-Rex s lease will result in a significant expansion by nearly 80,000 square feet. Another positive sign, the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation also expanded in the market when they signed for 62,000 square feet at 4550 Montgomery Avenue in the Bethesda/Chevy Chase submarket. Economic Moody s economy.com is projecting that the Metropolitan DC economy will grow by 1.0 percent in This is up from 0.5 percent in Jobs will continue to grow and the unemployment rate will continue to decline with more people joining the labor force. Within the region, however, Suburban Maryland has lost nearly 1,500 jobs overall. Office employment decreased by even more, dropping just over 2,500 jobs over the last six months. With the exception of the professional and business services sectors, all office-using industries have shed jobs in Suburban Maryland. This group includes the growing information technology sector that added 1,470 new jobs. Summary Statistics Q Office Market All Classes Class A Class B & C Vacancy Rate 16.4% 17.8% 15.2% Change From Q (basis points) Absorption (Square Feet) New Construction (Square Feet) Under Construction (Million Square Feet) Asking Rents Per Square Foot Per Year ,028 35, , , , Direct Asking Rates $26.44 $28.03 $24.56 Change From Q $0.02 -$0.28 $0.33 Direct Asking Rental Rates By Class $28.03/SF $24.83/SF RENTAL $21.79/SF Class A Class B Class C
2 Demand Net absorption in the fourth quarter registered 353,028 square feet, the highest in years. It also brought the year-to-date net absorption into the positive territory, something that both the Northern Virginia and Washington, DC markets cannot claim. Montgomery County and Prince George s County were almost identical in the positive absorption produce this quarter at 173,914 and 179,114 respectively. Within the Montgomery market, Bethesda unsurprisingly led the way with 106,365 square feet. For the year Bethesda registered more positive absorption than any other submarket in Maryland at 269,785 square feet. Prince George s County s net absorption was spread across several submarkets. Eight out of twelve submarkets had positive net absorption for the quarter with six having more than 15,000 square feet of positive net absorption. Just the Pennsylvania Avenue Corridor and College Park submarkets produced negative absorption of less than -10,000 square feet. Supply The Greencourt Innovation Center, located at Parklawn Drive, was the only building that delivered in the Suburban Maryland market in the fourth quarter of The 103,550 square foot office building, located in the Rockville submarket was one of the few building in the last several years that started construction on a speculative basis. Two more office buildings are scheduled to deliver in the first quarter of Both buildings are under 20,000 square feet in size and combined are roughly a third leased. Vacancy Rates Strong absorption in both counties pushed vacancy levels down by 28 basis points to end the quarter at 16.4 percent. This is the lowest vacancy the Suburban Maryland market has registered since the second quarter of The largest drop in vacancy occurred in Class B space which fell from 16.1 to 15.6 percent. Class A space dropped ten basis points to end the quarter at 17.8 percent. MGM GRAND CASINO & RESORT GREENCOURT INNOVATION CENTER SUBURBAN MARYL AND OFFICE MARKET SUMMARY FOURTH QUARTER 2016 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
3 Rental Rates As expected rental rates in Suburban Maryland remained largely unchanged, dropping by just two cents to end the quarter at $26.44 per square foot on a full service basis. The relative lack of new high quality space being added to the market continued to be a major factor for the stagnant asking rents in Suburban Maryland. Suburban Maryland, due to the lack of demand, has had very little redevelopment within its borders. Class A rents decreased this quarter to end at $28.03 per square foot, but they are still higher than then they were during the 1st quarter 2016 when they registered $ Outlook Maryland, largely considered the worst off in terms of demand of the major markets in the region in the, has shown more stability than both Northern Virginia and the District. The cost of this stability is that much of the product in Maryland is not being updated and is having a tougher time competing for regional tenants. Certain submarkets in the Suburban Maryland are expected to continue to succeed, namely Bethesda and parts of Rockville. With the opening of MGM Casino at National Harbor, parts of Prince George s County will likely benefit, bringing excitement and needed retail to Prince George s County having long reaching implications on the success of this county and the region as a whole. Suburban Maryland Office Market All Classes Q MARKET MONTGOMERY COUNTY EXISTING INVENTORY NEW SUPPLY YTD NEW SUPPLY UNDER YTD OVERALL DIRECT ASKING Bethesda 11,703, , , % $38.26 Gaithersburg 6,632, , , % $23.33 Germantown 3,133, ,211 63, % $24.09 I-270 North 631, , % n/a Kensington 1,622, ,108-50, % $25.13 North Bethesda 11,090, , % $29.36 North Rockville 13,316, , , % $26.33 North Silver Spring 3,245, ,806 6,164 88, % $24.54 Outlying Montgomery County East 494, ,503-6, % $25.03 Outlying Montgomery County West 792, ,194-23,698-18, % $24.00 Rockville 10,050, , , ,473 57, % $30.46 Silver Spring 6,943, ,748-16, % $29.18 MONTGOMERY COUNTY TOTAL 69,700, , ,719 33, ,914 29, % $28.88 PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY Beltsville 1,685, ,695 53, % $20.76 Bowie 1,881, ,721 53, % $12.19 Branch Avenue Corridor 1,930, , , % $21.33 College Park 4,516, ,481-41, % $21.77 Greenbelt 3,636, ,634-33, % $21.14 Landover/Largo 3,218, ,089 47, , % $22.01 Lanham 2,062, ,750 63, % $21.56 Laurel 2,665, ,198-26, % $20.30 National Harbor 1,183, ,884 34, % $29.45 Outlying PGCounty South 67,325-67,325-13,500 18, % n/a Pennsylvania Avenue Corridor 584, ,648-19, % $22.21 Upper Marlboro 196, % n/a PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY TOTAL 23,585,509-67,325 34, , , % $21.37 SUBURBAN MARYLAND TOTAL 93,286, , ,044 67, , , % $26.44 SUBURBAN MARYLAND OFFICE MARKET SUMMARY FOURTH QUARTER 2016 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
4 Suburban Maryland Office Market Class A Q MARKET EXISTING INVENTORY NEW SUPPLY YTD NEW SUPPLY UNDER YTD OVERALL DIRECT ASKING MONTGOMERY COUNTY Bethesda 5,672, , , % $40.80 Gaithersburg 2,382, ,933 9, % $23.99 Germantown 1,314, ,080 20, % $25.38 I-270 North n/a n/a Kensington 165, % $29.26 North Bethesda 7,186, , , % $29.88 North Rockville 8,017, , , % $28.28 North Silver Spring 1,399, , % $21.00 Outlying Montgomery County East n/a n/a Outlying Montgomery County West 719, ,698-36, % n/a Rockville 4,542, , ,407-63, % $32.18 Silver Spring 4,193, ,474-19, % $30.77 MONTGOMERY COUNTY TOTAL 35,592, ,169-6, , % $30.06 PRINCE GEORGE S COUNTY Beltsville 767, ,859 2, % $21.20 Bowie 688, ,036 46, % n/a Branch Avenue Corridor n/a n/a College Park 1,847, ,779-80, % $26.00 Greenbelt 2,166, ,029-17, % $22.38 Landover/Largo 957, ,621 1, % $23.69 Lanham 557, % $23.00 Laurel 840, ,395-44, % $19.25 National Harbor 460, ,284 16, % n/a Outlying PGCounty South n/a n/a Pennsylvania Avenue Corridor 232, % n/a Upper Marlboro 54, % n/a PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY TOTAL 8,572, ,145-76, % $22.24 SUBURBAN MARYLAND TOTAL 44,165, ,169-35, , % $28.03 Q4 RENTAL S $28.03 CLASS A $24.56 CLASS B&C CLASS A CLASS B&C CURRENT TOTAL OFFICE INVENTORY 16.4% 93.3M SF 44.2M SF 44.2M SF 49.1M 49.1M SF SF TOTAL INVENTORY BY CLASS CLASS A: 47.3% CLASS B & C: 52.7% 353,028 NET SUBURBAN MARYLAND OFFICE MARKET SUMMARY FOURTH QUARTER 2016 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
5 Suburban Maryland Office Market Class B & C Q MARKET MONTGOMERY COUNTY EXISTING INVENTORY NEW SUPPLY Demand / Supply Fundamentals Net Absorption, Change in Supply, Vacancy YTD NEW SUPPLY UNDER YTD OVERALL DIRECT ASKING Bethesda 6,031, ,251 44, % $37.09 Gaithersburg 4,250, , , % $22.66 Germantown 1,818, ,131 42, % $21.76 I-270 North 631, , % n/a Kensington 1,457, ,935-50, % $24.10 North Bethesda 3,904, ,230 6, % $28.45 North Rockville 5,299, ,869 84, % $22.86 North Silver Spring 1,845, ,806 6,164 82, % $24.85 Outlying Montgomery County East 494, ,503-6, % $25.03 Outlying Montgomery County West 73, ,194 13,000 17, % $24.00 Rockville 5,507, , , , , % $24.42 Silver Spring 2,750, ,726 3, % $24.58 MONTGOMERY COUNTY TOTAL 34,107, , ,550 33, , , % $27.16 PRINCE GEORGE S COUNTY Beltsville 917, ,836 51, % $19.72 Bowie 1,192, ,685 7, % $12.19 Branch Avenue Corridor 1,930, , , % $21.33 College Park 2,668, ,702 39, % $21.46 Greenbelt 1,470, ,605-15, % $18.61 Landover/Largo 2,260, ,089 52, , % $21.88 Lanham 1,505, ,750 63, % $20.79 Laurel 1,825, ,803 18, % $20.90 National Harbor 722, ,600 17, % $29.45 Outlying PGCounty South 67,325-67,325-13,500 18, % n/a Pennsylvania Avenue Corridor 352, ,648-19, % $22.21 Upper Marlboro 142, % n/a PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY TOTAL 15,012,871-67,325 34, , , % $20.72 SUBURBAN MARYLAND TOTAL 49,120, , ,875 67, ,887 21, % $ % Net Absorption Net Absorption (Millions SF) % 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Vacancy (%) Supply Changes Overall Vacancy Rate % % SUBURBAN MARYLAND OFFICE MARKET SUMMARY FOURTH QUARTER 2016 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
6 544 offices in 66 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 31 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 199 EMEA: 108 FOR MORE INFORMATION: Dave Parker Regional Managing Director david.w.parker@colliers.com Robert Hartley Director of Research robert.hartley@colliers.com CONTRIBUTOR: Andrew Wellman Research Analyst colliers.com/washingtondc $2.5 billion in annual revenue US* 2 billion square feet under management 16,000 professionals and staff About Colliers International Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIG) is a global leader in commercial real estate services with more than 16,300 professionals operating from 502 offices in 67 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant insider ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include brokerage, global corporate solutions, investment sales and capital markets, project management and workplace solutions, property and asset management, consulting, valuation and appraisal services, and customized research and thought leadership. Colliers International has been ranked among the top 100 outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing for 10 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. For the latest news from Colliers International, visit Colliers.com or follow us on Twitter (@ColliersIntl) and LinkedIn. colliers.com Copyright 2017 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
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