2045 DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST SURFACE TRANSPORTATION TECHNICAL COMMITTEE APRIL 28, 2017
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1 2045 DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST SURFACE TRANSPORTATION TECHNICAL COMMITTEE APRIL 28, 2017
2 BACKGROUND The demographic forecasts provide a common base for regional planning and resource allocations. The forecasts are widely used by cities, counties, and partner agencies. Demographic forecasting process at NCTCOG is a data-driven analytical approach with input/feedback from stakeholders Aggregate (region/county) and disaggregate (traffic survey zone) levels Current demographic forecast is through the year 2040 and was adopted by the NCTCOG Executive Board in May of 2015
3 Need for 2045 Demographics AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY: EPA Adequacy on Latest Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (MVEB) NO X = tons per day VOC = tons per day Conformity Deadline = November 23, 2018 New 2015 Ozone Standard Nonattainment Designations October 2017 Conformity Deadline = Late 2018 Early 2019 TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM (TIP): Inventory Surface Transportation Projects METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION PLAN (MTP) UPDATE: Incorporate Projects funded from the 85 th Texas Legislative Session Account for Most Recent Project Development Initiatives, including HB20 10-Year Planning Effort Incorporate Modern Day People Mover Systems Ensure Environmental Documentation Consistency Address of New Federal and State Performance Measures 3
4 2045 FORECAST METHODOLOGY BUILD FROM ADOPTED 2040 FORECAST Determine 2045 Control Totals Growth in each county based on extrapolation of year 2005 through year 2040 trend Build and Execute Urbanization Model to 2045 Utilize observed LandSat imagery tracking development patterns and vacant land Utilize same Future Land-use Plans as 2040 Forecast Use the current 2040 Forecast footprint to predict 2040 to 2045 change Local Government/Agency Review Executive Board adopts 5-year extension only
5 CONTROL TOTALS +570K +330K Population 4,038,472 4,530,245 5,228,445 5,768,914 6,444,115 7,094,057 10,676,844 11,246,516 Employment 2,517,529 2,826,373 3,431,605 3,646,652 3,957,470 4,641,364 6,691,449 7,024,214 Note: Historical figures are total population. Projected figures are household population.
6 CONTROL TOTALS - POPULATION Population (millions) SDC 1.0 W&P Perryman COG TWDB SDC 0.5 SDC Year COG North Central Texas Council of Governments Perryman The Perryman Group SDC Texas State Data Center (State Demographer) TWDB Texas Water Development Board W&P Woods & Poole Economics, Inc Data: US Census Bureau, NCTCOG
7 2045 CORE COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH 4 3 Dallas MILLIONS 2 Tarrant 1 Collin Denton YEAR
8 2045 COUNTY POPULATION FORECAST County Change % Change Collin 647,831 1,560,421 1,689, , % Dallas 2,224,183 3,357,469 3,445,189 87, % Denton 541,622 1,241,681 1,346, , % Ellis 128, , ,955 17, % Hood 45,934 81,578 85,739 4, % Hunt 80, , ,291 3, % Johnson 138, , ,868 10, % Kaufman 86, , ,205 14, % Parker 98, , ,811 11, % Rockwall 59, , ,561 15, % Tarrant 1,587,173 3,094,649 3,263, , % Wise 54, , ,796 3, % Total 5,695,295 10,676,844 11,246, , %
9 COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH SHARES Share of County Growth Growth Collin 1,560,421 1,689, , % Dallas 3,357,469 3,445,189 87, % Denton 1,241,681 1,346, , % Ellis 283, ,955 17, % Hood 81,578 85,739 4, % Hunt 131, ,291 3, % Johnson 252, ,868 10, % Kaufman 210, ,205 14, % Parker 195, ,811 11, % Rockwall 166, ,561 15, % Tarrant 3,094,649 3,263, , % Wise 101, ,796 3, % MPA 10,676,844 11,246, , %
10 TIMETABLE January-February 2017 Select Control Totals Finalize 2040 to 2045 Urbanization Model March-April 2017 Develop 2045 Forecast Conduct internal review May-June 2017 Local Review July 2017 Incorporate Local Review feedback August 2017 Executive Board Approval
11 LOCAL REVIEW Local input is a critical part of the process Modeling process incorporates future plans (gathered in 2013) Local review of the output provides additional information that NCTCOG staff can use to refine forecasts Review of 2045 Builds off existing forecast, so emphasis is on change NCTCOG will furnish city s share of change for each TSZ
12 SUPPORTING RESOURCES Demographic Data US Census Bureau Texas State Data Center (State Demographer) NCTCOG Annual Population Estimates Employment Data US Bureau of Economic Analysis US Census Bureau NCTCOG Small-area Estimates Program Development/Land Use NCTCOG Development Monitoring, Land Use Inventories, Ortho Photos, various GIS Data Layers (e.g. water, slope, elevation, roads) US Geological Survey/NASA Satellite Imagery Local Governments Comprehensive Plans, Developments, Land Use
13 2045 FORECAST CONTACTS Mark Folden Research and Information Services Donna Coggeshall Research and Information Services Arash Mirzaei Transportation Dan Kessler Transportation
14 2045 DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST White Pre 1990 Green Pink
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