Pay-TV and OTT video services in Western Europe: forecasts and analysis

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1 Research Report Pay-TV and OTT video services in Western Europe: forecasts and analysis August 2013 Cesar Bachelet

2 2 Contents Slide no. 7. Executive summary 8. Executive summary: We expect 3% of households in Western Europe to use OTT video services as their primary pay-tv service in Executive summary: OTT video will account for just over half of secondary pay-tv services in Executive summary: Take-up of OTT video to the TV set will grow significantly in all countries, but with notable local differences 11. Executive summary: Low-cost media streamers will displace games consoles as the main device used to access OTT video services on the TV 12. Recommendations 13. Recommendations [1] 14. Recommendations [2] 15. Recommendations [3] 16. Western European forecast 17. Our forecasts cover both primary and secondary pay-tv services 18. New platforms will drive the growth of pay-tv services on the main TV set, while analogue cable services will disappear 19. OTT video services and IPTV will boost pay-tv penetration rates 20. OTT video services will account for four-out-of-five pay-tv net additions during the forecast period 21. OTT video services will account for just over half of secondary pay-tv services by 2018, as pay-tv operator multi-room services decline Slide no. 22. Pay-TV spend will be boosted by the increasing take-up of OTT video services and transition to digital cable 23. Pay-TV ASPS will be driven by the increased consumption of ondemand content 24. ASPS is subject to conflicting pressures, which will make it increasingly challenging for pay-tv operators to monetise their subscriber base 25. Low-cost media streamers will displace the games console as the main way of accessing OTT video services on the TV 26. We expect that just over a fifth of OTT video services on the TV set will be used as a primary pay-tv service in Spend on OTT video services to the TV set in Western Europe will increase thirteen-fold to EUR2 billion between 2013 and Market drivers and inhibitors 29. Overview of factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market 30. Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market [1] 31. Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market [2] 32. Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market [3] 33. Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market [4] 34. Business environment 35. OTT video services will become more popular as long-form online video moves from the PC to the TV 36. Cable operators with large legacy analogue subscriber bases are under threat from a wide range of digital TV alternatives

3 3 Contents Slide no. 37. Pay-DTT services are losing their appeal in most of Western Europe after early successes 38. Satellite operators are using broadband-connected STBs to deliver true on-demand services 39. Telcos are gaining ground in pay-tv services 40. Country-specific forecasts 41. France is the country where IPTV has been most successful in Western Europe 42. We expect OTT video services to have a limited impact in France 43. Cable remains the dominant platform in Germany, but faces growing competition from IPTV and satellite 44. Providers of OTT video services have had limited success in Germany so far, but we expect overall take-up to increase to 13% of households in IPTV fails to gain scale in Italy, despite a head start compared to other Western European countries and the absence of cable infrastructure 46. Leading telcos in Italy are focusing on OTT video services, rather than IPTV, driving take-up 47. We do not expect the Spanish pay-tv market to recover until the end of the forecast period 48. We expect OTT video services to the TV set to have limited appeal in Spain, reaching just 2% household penetration overall in 2018 Slide no. 49. We expect IPTV to be the fastest-growing platform in the UK, because of the growing appeal of the services from BT and Talk Talk 50. Having a common language with the USA attracts leading international OTT video services to the UK 51. Market definition 52. Regional breakdown used in this report 53. Measures provided in the data annex 54. Definitions used in this report 55. About the author and Analysys Mason 56. About the author 57. About Analysys Mason 58. Research from Analysys Mason 59. Consulting from Analysys Mason

4 4 List of figures [1] Figure 1: Key metrics and categories featured in this forecast Figure 2: Primary pay-tv services by platform, Western Europe, 2013 and 2018 Figure 3: Secondary pay-tv services by platform, Western Europe, 2013 and 2018 Figure 4: Household penetration of OTT video services on the TV set, by country, Western Europe, Figure 5: OTT video services to the TV set, by type of device, Western Europe, Figure 6: Types of pay-tv services covered within this report Figure 7: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Western Europe, Figure 8: Pay-TV penetration of households, by platform, Western Europe, Figure 9: Pay-TV services, by platform, Western Europe, Figure 10: Secondary pay-tv services, by platform, Western Europe, Figure 11: Pay-TV spend, by platform, Western Europe, Figure 12: Average spend per subscriber for traditional pay-tv services, by linear programming and on-demand content, Western Europe, Figure 13: Pressures on ASPS for pay-tv services Figure 14: OTT video services to the TV set, by type of device, Western Europe, Figure 15: OTT video services to the TV set, by primary and secondary, Western Europe, Figure 16: Spend on OTT video services to the TV set, by service type, Western Europe, Figure 17: Top-level overview of factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-tv market Figure 18: Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-tv market Figure 19: Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-tv market Figure 20: Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-tv market Figure 21: Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-tv market Figure 22: Digital cable penetration, by country, Western Europe, Figure 23: Household penetration of pay-dtt services, by country, Western Europe, Figure 24: On-demand service spend as a percentage of satellite pay-tv service spend, Western Europe, Figure 25: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, France, Figure 26: Pay-TV spend, by platform, France, Figure 27: OTT video services to the TV set, by primary and secondary, France, Figure 28: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Germany, Figure 29: Pay-TV spend, by platform, Germany,

5 5 List of figures [2] Figure 30: OTT video services to the TV set in Germany, by primary and secondary, Germany, Figure 31: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Italy, Figure 32: Pay-TV spend, by platform, Italy, Figure 33: OTT video services on the TV set, by primary and secondary, Italy, Figure 34: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Spain, Figure 35: Pay-TV spend, by platform, Spain, Figure 36: OTT video services to the TV set, by primary and secondary, Spain, Figure 37: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, UK, Figure 38: Pay-TV spend, by platform, UK, Figure 39: OTT video services to the TV set, by primary and secondary, UK, Figure 40: Regional breakdown used in this report

6 Households (million) Pay-TV and OTT video services in Western Europe: forecasts and analysis New platforms will drive the growth of pay-tv services on the main TV set, while analogue cable services will disappear Figure 7: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Western Europe, [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Analogue cable IPTV Satellite Digital cable Pay-DTT OTT video Between 2013 and 2018, the number of Western European households receiving primary pay-tv services will increase by 8.9% to million (1.7% CAGR). The number of households taking traditional primary pay-tv services will increase by a more modest 3.9% (0.8% CAGR) during the period. IPTV will be the main growth driver because of the continued roll-out of next-generation access (NGA) fixed broadband services. The number of households taking IPTV primary services will continue to increase (6.2 million additional households during the period, 29.0% growth, 5.2% CAGR). Cable households will decline ( 6.2% during the period, or 1.3% CAGR), because the increase in digital cable households (9.3 million households, representing 27.2% growth) is insufficient to offset the extinction of analogue cable (amounting to 12.2 million households, some of which will opt for digital platforms other than cable, including FTA DTT or OTT video services). We expect that the number of households taking paid-for OTT video services, will increase from in 2013 to 5.6 million in 2018 as more content and services become available, including those from pay-tv operators such as BSkyB s NOW TV.

7 Devices (million) Pay-TV and OTT video services in Western Europe: forecasts and analysis Low-cost media streamers will displace the games console as the main way of accessing OTT video services on the TV Figure 14: OTT video services to the TV set, by type of device, Western Europe, [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] Games consoles Smart TVs Connected DVD or Blu-ray players Media streamers We expect the total number of OTT video services consumed on TV sets to increase nearly seven-fold during the forecast period, from 3.8 million in 2013 to 26.2 million in Games consoles are the most commonly used device to access paid-for OTT video services, accounting for more than two-fifths (41.4%) of the total. However, we expect their share of the total to decrease to just under one-third (30.1%) by 2018, as the installed base of other devices grows. However, we expect the market to be dominated by dedicated connected devices, which we refer to as media streamers, as they increase from 1.3 million to 8.8 million, boosted by the emergence of low-cost devices such as BSkyB s Now TV Box, launched in the UK at a price of GBP9.99 (EUR11.43) in July We expect that the number of smart TVs being used to watch paid-for OTT video content will increase from in 2013 to 5.9 million in 2018, boosting their share of the total number of devices by 4.2 percentage points to 22.4% The share of connected peripheral devices such as DVD and Blu-ray players, will increase from 5.7% to 14.0%. During the early part of the forecast, they enable consumers to get the smart TV experience without replacing their TV sets. 1 For more information, see Analysys Mason s Analyst view: BSkyB launches low-cost set-top box in a bid to establish itself in the UK's OTT video market.

8 55 Executive summary Recommendations Western European forecast Market drivers and inhibitors Business environment Country-specific forecasts Market definition About the author and Analysys Mason

9 56 About the author Cesar Bachelet (Senior Analyst) has more than 20 years experience of the telecoms industry, and specialises in triple-play services, with a focus on pay TV, as well as emerging services and devices within the digital home. He has conducted research and delivered presentations on a wide range of topics, including fixed voice, broadband and video services, bundling and convergence strategies. He also contributes to various media-focused consulting projects. Before joining Analysys Mason, Cesar worked for various analyst companies, including Ovum. Prior to this, he worked for telecoms operator BT, where he held a range of positions, including those of Competitor Analyst in the Consumer Division (now BT Retail) and Market Analyst in BT Ignite s ASP (application service provision) unit (now BT Global Services), for 14 years.

10 57 About Analysys Mason Knowing what s going on is one thing. Understanding how to take advantage of events is quite another. Our ability to understand the complex workings of telecoms, media and technology (TMT) industries and draw practical conclusions, based on the specialist knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research. Consulting Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We support multi-billion dollar investments, advise clients on regulatory matters, provide spectrum valuation and auction support, and advise on operational performance, business planning and strategy. We have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver tangible results for clients around the world. For more information, please visit Research We analyse, track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises, as well as the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Research clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence in addition to direct access to our team of expert analysts. Our dedicated Custom Research team undertakes specialised and bespoke projects for clients. For more information, please visit

11 58 Research from Analysys Mason We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors, through a range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world. Alongside our standardised suite of research programmes, our Custom Research team undertakes specialised, bespoke research projects for clients. The dedicated team offers tailored investigations and answers complex questions on markets, competitors and services with customised industry intelligence and insights. To find out more, please visit

12 59 Consulting from Analysys Mason For more than 25 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the world to make the most of their opportunities. Our clients in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors operate in dynamic markets where change is constant. We help shape their understanding of the future so they can thrive in these demanding conditions. To do that, we have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver real results for clients around the world. Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We advise clients on regulatory matters, help shape spectrum policy and develop spectrum strategy, support multi-billion dollar investments, advise on operational performance and develop new business strategies. Such projects result in a depth of knowledge and a range of expertise that sets us apart. We help clients solve their most pressing problems, enabling them to go farther, faster and achieve their commercial objectives. To find out more, please visit

13 Published by Analysys Mason Limited Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Registered in England No All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any clientspecific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.

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