Industry Update. Presented by: Jim Bottoms. May 2012
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1 Industry Update Presented by: Jim Bottoms May 212
2 Company Overview The Futuresource service offering covers: Knowledge-Based Analysis & Forecasts Confidential Strategy Studies In-Depth Market Appraisal Market Intelligence & Data Management Continuous Monitoring & Tracking Business-to-Business Surveys Detailed Consumer Research Channel/Distributor Feedback Uniquely positioned to analyse market forces, competition and technological developments across entire value chain and assess against changing consumer wants and needs. Offering an independent and objective route to detailed market knowledge, in-depth research and reliable/accurate forecasts Via continuous subscription services or one-off in-depth custom studies. The Futuresource client base and our client relationships, often spanning more than 2 years, are a testament to our capabilities and forecasting accuracy. 2
3 Reasons to be Cheerful (Part 1) Yes No The European Championships start in 17 days The Olympic Games start 7 weeks later Interest in video entertainment in all its forms is booming boosted by increased flexibility UltraViolet is on its way European BD video production grew by nearly 4% in 211 Last year was the best year for BD replication investment since 27 and the second best year ever 3
4 1 Disc Revenues Continue to Dominate in 216 Western Europe Retail Value ( Billions) Online Video Pay TV VoD 4 3 Blu-ray 2 1 DVD-Video NB: DVD-Video and Blu-ray includes sell-through and rental 4
5 Consumers Are Still Buying Discs Every Year Annual Household Disc Buy Rates USA UK France Germany Note: Includes DVD and Blu-ray sell-through and excludes rental. Figures reflect average number of discs purchased per household in each year (i.e. total disc sales divided by total households) 5
6 Digital Music Significance Varies by Country % Total Digital Music of Total Value H1 211 Estimate 6% 55% 5% 46% 4% 3% 2% 23% 24% 16% 22% 19% 24% 1% 6% % USA Austria Denmark France Germany Italy Netherlands Poland Japan 6
7 Consumer Spend $Bn Online & Mobile Games Share of Global Market Revenue Growing % Mobile 3 36% Online % Packaged Mobile Online Packaged Total Note: Online revenues includes revenues from subscriptions, DLC (downloadable content), transactions, full game downloads. Ad generated revenues not included. 7
8 Sell-Through Blu-ray Retail Sales Development (M Units) 6 5 Global % 55 11% % % % %
9 Sales (M Units) Blu-ray PS3 PS BD Player Growth BD Market Overview - USA % 4% 3% 2% 1% % Sales (M Units) Homes Owning BD Players Household Saturation (%) 17.% Blu-ray PS3 PS4 23.9% 3.7% 35.2% 14.% 14.9% 14.4% BD-Video Title Sales % 12.8% 42.1% 1.3% 46.3% 11.6% 12.% 2.1% 5.2% 8.6% 7.6%
10 Sales (M Units) BD Market Overview Western Europe* BD Player Growth Blu-ray PS3 PS BD-Video Title Sales Sales (M Units) % 2% 15% 1% Homes Owning BD Players Household Saturation (%) Blu-ray PS3 PS4 21.3% 18.4% 15.% 11.3% 1.7% 8.8% 11.7% 11.6% 1.5% 8.7% 23.4% 8.1% 5% % 7.6% 6.6% 5.6% 4.3% 1.1% 3.% * Data relates to top 16 European markets. 1
11 Total Retail Sales (M Units) 7 Total DVD/BD Software Market Outlook: Western Europe Blu-ray DVD Note: DVD-Video/Blu-ray value includes sell-through and rental 11
12 Total Retail Sales (M Units) Total DVD/BD Software Market Outlook: USA Blu-ray DVD Note: DVD-Video/Blu-ray value includes sell-through and rental 12
13 BD Short-Term Production & Capacity Requirements (Million Discs) 1 North America 1 Europe BD Production* BD Capacity * Includes BD-Video and BD-ROM (PS3/Wii U) 13
14 Total Production (M Discs) Europe BD Production Outlook Total Production 2.6m Total Production 251.5m Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q
15 Broadcasters Planning 3D Content UK Finland Poland USA Spain Japan Portugal France Germany Korea Brazil 15
16 Interest Level The Bottoms Barometer of New Product Launch Q1 21 Q3 21 Mass PR consumer hype TODAY Positive response But with caution Realistic expectations Lets focus on all the negatives Launch Reality Dawns Doubters Rule Normality Returns 16
17 Pay TV & IPTV Operators Offering 3D Content Services December 211 USA UK Finland Sweden Denmark Estonia Norway Poland Russia Canada Spain Germany Netherlands Japan Portugal France Czech Belgium Belarus Romania Korea Brazil Italy Slovakia Australia Middle East Switz *Includes both 3D broadcast tests and channel/ on-demand service roll-out 17
18 3D Hardware Ownership Continues to Grow By Default 3D Blu-ray 3D TV Households (Millions) Household Saturation % Households (Millions) Household Saturation % % % % 8.9 9% 3.7 5%.6 2% % % 2% 15% 1% 5% % % % % % % % 3% % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 3D BD Player Households Saturation 3D BD Player Households Saturation 18
19 3D Content Development USA 3D Blu-ray Titles Widely Available at Retail 3D Blu-ray Title Sales No. of Titles Available (M Units) 2D Sales 3D Sales 14% 9% 5% 1% 86% 91% 95% 99% D Theatrical Release Development 212 3D Theatrical Release Studio Breakdown Number of Title Releases Sony Pictures Fox Warner Bros. Walt Disney Universal Pictures Paramount Pictures Lionsgate Others 19
20 In-Home 3D Market Overview: Western Europe 16 Millions 3D Blu-ray Title Sales % 1 26% 31% 8 19% 13% 6 6% 4 2 1% 99% 94% 87% 81% 74% 69% 66% D Sales D Sales
21 Consumer Feedback on Digital Copy 12 focus groups conducted March 212 (UK, France and Germany) Amongst Blu-ray player owners who buy and watch movies Low awareness of Digital Copy Only a few people aware Only 1 or 2 had used digital copy Term considered confusing everything is digital these days, many thought another name would be better High levels of interest in Digital Copy when made aware When fully explained, many very interested (5%+) Particularly younger people already watching video on phones and tablets Also families with children who want more flexible viewing Liked the idea of Digital Copy on older movies Probably not on DVDs, except maybe kids titles Even after studying a number of packs, consumers still did not fully understand what digital copy is and how it works 21
22 First BD titles with UltraViolet released in US Q4 211 from Warner, Sony, Universal Main European activity will be centred on late 212 Most will focus on UK only Many feel it is premature to launch Some major issues still to be resolved: Common file format Retailer support Clear consumer education program Consumers don t like setting up multiple online accounts Concerns over infrastructure limitations with everyone streaming from the cloud (and security) Some concerns over payment models Who pays for on-going streaming? At present streaming being offered by Studio websites, Flixster and Vudu only Disc to Digital initiatives will help - but is the pricing right? 22
23 Household Saturation of IP Enabled Devices: Western Europe Household Saturation: 215 7% TV Displays 6% 64% 5% 52% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 19% 16% 1% 1% 24% 22% 4% 4% 29% 25% 11% 7% 34% 25% 23% 11% 38% 23 36% 25% 25% Installed Base (M Units) Games Console TV Display Blu-ray Hardware Pay-TV STB/DVR % 37% 17% Pay-TV STB/DVR 38% Games Consoles 26% Blu-ray Hardware 2%
24 Penetration of IP-Ready Personal CE Devices: Western Europe 8% 7% 62% 7% Personal Penetration: 215 Smart Phones 77% 6% 53% 5% 44% 4% 34% 3% 2% 1% % 1% 4% 7% 11% 15% Tablets 18% Installed Base (M Units) Smartphones Tablets
25 Fragmented Online Landscape: Western Europe UK FRANCE GERM ANY? ITALY BENELUX NORDICS SPAIN = Exited the business 25
26 Two-Thirds of Respondents Use Their Tablet to Watch Video Content, This is Especially High in the USA 74% 73% of Apple ipad owners watch video content compared to 61% of those who own another brand of tablet. Yes No 34% 66% Overall (536) Base: 536 Tablet owners 26% 32% 39% 41% 68% 61% 59% 74% France (115) Germany (89) UK (148) USA (184) 26
27 39% of Tablet Owners Are Watching Movies % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% General surfing on the web 8% Checking my personal/work s 74% Listening to music Shopping online Reading books, magazines or newspapers Visiting social network sites, such as Facebook or Myspace Downloading and using apps Watching streamed videos online (e.g. YouTube, Google Video) Watching movies 54% 51% 51% 5% 49% 44% 39% Base: 536 Tablet owners Texting/Instant messaging Save, edit or maintain digital photos Online gaming Watching other TV programmes 27% 27% 26% 24% 27
28 Focus on Content Company Operations All content companies are focused on cost reduction Better forecasting, fewer returns, packaging, extras, outsourcing, sku strategy etc. Decisions increasingly being made centrally Reducing headcount around the world is a priority Expect more shared distributor activities e.g: Universal and Paramount in Italy and Spain Sony and Universal in Australia Sony and Fox in Brazil Supply chain no longer seen as giving competitive advantage Industry more open minded than ever Ideas rejected in the past may be accepted today. 28
29 Reasons to be Cheerful (part II) Packaged video in decline, but revenues still significant Still room for BD growth Consumer spend on digital starting to materialise, in particular in the USA Experimentation and multiple new initiatives to support transition from physical to digital UV, D2D, Digital Copy can all help maintain interest in disc Phenomenal growth in connected device ownership will boost overall video consumption 29
30 talk to us Futuresource Consulting +44 () info@futuresource-hq.com While every effort is made by Futuresource Consulting Ltd to provide accurately researched information and carefully supported conclusions and recommendations to its client, in no event will the company or its professionals be liable for information, analysis, advice or recommendations provided to the client at any stage 3 of the project, or be liable for actions and decisions taken as 212 a result Futuresource of this report. Consulting Ltd
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