UBS Technology Conference 2011 Franki D Hoore - Director European Investor Relations London, March 10, 2011

Transcription

1 UBS Technology Conference Franki D Hoore - Director European Investor Relations London, March 10, / Slide 1

2 Safe Harbor "Safe Harbor" Statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: the matters discussed in this document may include forward-looking statements, including statements made about our outlook, realization of backlog, IC unit demand, financial results, average selling price, gross margin and expenses, dividend policy and intention to repurchase shares. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to: economic conditions, product demand and semiconductor equipment industry capacity, worldwide demand and manufacturing capacity utilization for semiconductors (the principal product of our customer base), including the impact of general economic conditions on consumer confidence and demand for our customers products, competitive products and pricing, the impact of manufacturing efficiencies and capacity constraints, the pace of new product development and customer acceptance of new products, our ability to enforce patents and protect intellectual property rights, the risk of intellectual property litigation, availability of raw materials and critical manufacturing equipment, trade environment, changes in exchange rates, available cash, distributable reserves for dividend payments and share repurchases and other risks indicated in the risk factors included in ASML s Annual Report on Form 20-F and other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. / Slide 2

3 Agenda Business summary Market ASML business update Outlook and summary / Slide 3

4 / Slide 4 Business summary

5 Q4 results - highlights Net sales of 1,521 million, 69 systems shipped valued at 1,313 million, service revenue at 208 million Gross margin of 45.0% Operating margin of 32.4% Shipped 28 immersion systems Net bookings are valued at 2,315 million with 117 systems (see slide 12) Backlog increased to 3,856 million, 157 systems with ASP of 27.7 million for new tools, including 67 immersion tools Generated 302 million cash from operations / Slide 5

6 Total net sales M 5,000 4,500 4,508 Net sales 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,582 3,768 1, ,053 2,954 2, , , , Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Numbers have been rounded for readers convenience. / Slide 6

7 Key financial trends Consolidated statements of operations M Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Net Sales ,069 1,176 1,521 Gross profit Gross margin % % % % % % R&D costs SG&A costs Income from operations Operating income % Net income Net income as a % of net sales % % % % % % % % % % Units sold ASP new systems Net bookings value 1,059 1,165 1,342 1,391 2,315 Numbers have been rounded for readers convenience. Numbers have been adjusted for consolidation of variable interest entity. Net bookings value numbers have been adjusted, see slide 12. / Slide 7

8 Backlog: value and litho units Backlog value Units 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan-11 Backlog value M Backlog in units 0 57 % of backlog or 2,208 million system sales carry shipment dates in the next 6 months, 100% backlog shippable in Last 6 quarters are restated according new backlog definition / Slide 8

9 Backlog in value per December 31, 2010 Total value M 3,856 Technology End-use ArF immersion 71% KrF 22% I-Line 1% ArF dry 6% Region (ship to location) Japan 4% IDM 21% Foundry 33% DRAM 27% NAND 19% USA 28% Taiwan 23% Singapore 13% Europe 11% China 10% Korea 11% Numbers have been rounded for readers convenience. / Slide 9

10 Bookings activity by sector - total value M 2,315 Bookings in value Bookings in units NAND 30% DRAM NAND Foundry 48% 16% IDM 6% 28% Foundry 50% DRAM 11% IDM 11% Booked 104 new tools at 2,250 million, 13 used at 65 million Numbers have been rounded for readers convenience. / Slide 10

11 / Slide 11 Market

12 All sectors are ramping their new nodes Wafer starts per node 100% DRAM 100% NAND 80% 2x 80% 1x 60% 3x 4x 60% % 5x 6x 40% 3x 4x 20% 7x 20% 5x 0% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 100% Logic 100% MPU 80% 2x 80% 60% 40% 3x 4x 6x 9x 60% 40% 2x 3x 4x 20% 1xx 20% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 ASML estimates / Slide 12

13 New fab litho opportunity 13 fabs projects representing 7.0 billion of litho (-) Fab Projects Estimated litho spend to completion Samsung DRAM Rexchip 1.5 billion Euro Hynix Toshiba NAND Samsung 2.0 billion Euro Hynix IMFS TSMC Samsung Foundry + Global Foundries 3.5 billion Euro IDM UMC Huali Intel Publicly announced projects / Slide 13

14 Chip ASP [$US] DRAM spot prices improving for both 2Gb and 1Gb DDR3 products MAIN DRAM SPOT & CONTRACT PRICES (01/ YTD) 1Gb DDR2 800 MHz SPOT PRICE 1Gb DDR2 800 MHz CONTRACT PRICE 1Gb DDR MHz SPOT PRICE 1Gb DDR MHz CONTRACT PRICE 2Gb DDR3 1333MHz SPOT PRICE 2Gb DDR3 1333MHz CONTRACT PRICE 300 mm cash-costs for 7x nm 1 Gb DRAM between 1.4 & 1.6 USD 300 mm cash-costs for 6x nm 1 Gb DRAM between 1.1 & 1.25 USD 300 mm cash-costs for 5x nm 1 Gb DRAM between 0.8 & 0.9 USD Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb mm cashcosts for 4x nm 2 Gb DRAM between 1.3 & 1.5 USD No cash profit on 1Gb DDR3, if made at 5x nm and sold at current contract prices Source: DRAMeXchange (7/2/), ASML MCC Slide 14

15 Efficiency gap between tier-1 and tier-2 foundries 90% 80% Overview of Tier-1 vs. Tier-2 Foundry tool utilization [ YTD] Tier-2 Foundry Avg. Utilization Tier-1 Foundry Avg. Utilization Poly. (Tier-2 Foundry Avg. Utilization) Poly. (Tier-1 Foundry Avg. Utilization) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 ASML tool utilization Market entry of two new leading-edge contenders, i.e. Samsung and Global Foundries Source: ASML Marketing (2/11) Slide 15

16 / Slide 16 ASML business update

17 Technology - TWINSCAN NXT Productivity at specified 175 wafers per hour, 3 nm overlay FlexRay, programmable illuminator, shipping in high volume System production capacity increasing by cycle time improvement and cabin conversions Q4 NXT shipments surpassed Q4 XT immersion for the first time / Slide 17

18 Technology - EUV Two NXE:3100 systems has been shipped, the first one is exposing wafers already at a customers manufacturing site Four additional NXE:3100 systems are planned to ship in next several months Orders received for 9 NXE:3300 production systems to be delivered in EUV is now confirmed to be the most likely lithography platform to continue Moore s law to beyond 2020 / Slide 18

19 EUV lowers overall costs for customer, while including increased litho costs Patterning steps per device layer Metrology Strip/Clean Spacer etch BARC/ACL/SiON etch Metrology Strip/Clean Trim Etch Metrology ArFi Develop Expose ArFi Resist ArFi BARC Metrology Strip/Clean Template removal Oxide Etch Back Metrology Spacer Metrology Strip/Clean BARC/ACL/SiON etch Defect Metrology ArFi Develop Expose ArFi Resist ArFi BARC SiON/SiC ACL Cap layer ACL Spacer Metrology Strip/Clean ACL Etch Metrology EUV Develop Expose EUV Resist EUV BARC ACL * * Cost per layer [Euro/Wafer] Li Costs per layer: ArFi : Overall patterning costs (including litho, etching, etc.): / wafer Litho costs (2xArFi exposures per layer): / wafer Ratio litho costs/overall patterning costs: 33% EUV : Overall patterning costs: / wafer Litho costs (1xEUV exposure per layer): / wafer Ratio litho costs/overall patterning costs: 68% EUV secures the role of lithography for the next decade * Source: ASML Strategic Marketing Slide 19

20 Source power progress 10x per year 60 W/hr still provides challenge Source power [W] ~1W 0.5wph 10mJ/cm 2 ~10W 5wph 10mJ/cm 2 ~105W 60wph 10mJ/cm 2 250W 125wph 15mJ/cm Q1/2009 Q1/2010 Q1/ end/ end/ Aggregate roadmaps of source suppliers / Slide 20 Timeline

21 Cash return Announcing a share buy back program of up to 1 billion executed within a 2 year timeframe Proposed dividend for 2010 of 0.40 per ordinary share (approx. 175 million) vs per share in 2009 / Slide 21

22 / Slide 22 Outlook and summary

23 Q1 outlook Net sales expected around 1.4 billion Gross margin expected between 44% and 45% R&D is expected at 145 million SG&A is expected at 55 million Current backlog plus expected Q1 bookings confirm a potential for more than 5 billion of net sales in / Slide 23

24 / Slide 24