Piper Jaffray Europe Conference London

Transcription

1 Piper Jaffray Europe Conference London Franki D Hoore Director Investor Relations June 22, 2010 / Slide 1

2 Safe Harbor "Safe Harbor" Statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: the matters discussed in this document may include forward-looking statements, including statements made about our outlook, realization of backlog, IC unit demand, financial results, average selling price, gross margin and expenses. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to: economic conditions, product demand and semiconductor equipment industry capacity, worldwide demand and manufacturing capacity utilization for semiconductors (the principal product of our customer base), including the impact of general economic conditions on consumer confidence and demand for our customers products, competitive products and pricing, manufacturing efficiencies, new product development and customer acceptance of new products, ability to enforce patents and protect intellectual property rights, the risk of intellectual property litigation, availability of raw materials and critical manufacturing equipment, trade environment, changes in exchange rates and other risks indicated in the risk factors included in ASML s Annual Report on Form 20-F and other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. / Slide 2

3 Agenda ASML Overview Short Term Business overview Future trends ASML Trajectory / Slide 3

4 / Slide 4 ASML Overview

5 ASML : Leading supplier of lithography equipment to the semiconductor industry / Slide 5 Headquarters: Veldhoven, The Netherlands Market Cap approx 10 B

6 ASML s historic market share growth 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 WW M$ ASML market share 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% World Wide Market [M USD] ASML Revenue Market Share [%] 10% 0 0% Sources: VLSI, Gartner ( ), SEMI ( ) 2009 ASML 67% Nikon 29% Canon 4% $ Total market: $2500 million Source: ASML, SEMI / Slide 6

7 Commitment to innovation requires a strong player Source: ASML worldwide investments, Zeiss SMT / Slide 7

8 / Slide 8 Short Term Business overview

9 A favorable analyst s semiconductor growth outlook for 2010 now at 23.2% YoY Semiconductor revenue growth 2010 Semiconductor revenue growth forecast over time 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Jan-09 Feb-09 Increased forecasts mainly driven by more stable IC ASPs. IC unit growth over 15% questionable, due to limited capacity additions in 2008 and 2009 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Sources: See chart (5/2010) Weighted average is based on age of forecast from market institute and respective level of accuracy for the last 3 years Mar-10 Date of Forecast Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Future Horizons SIA Semico Dataquest IC Insights WSTS isuppli VLSI Research AVERAGE / Slide 9

10 Total inventories as well as days of inventories decreased in April 2010, as result of increased chip consumption 3mma IC unit sales, inventory and inventory days 25 monthly IC inventory based on 3mma IC ASPs 120 3mma IC unit sales / Inventory [Bio. Units] mma IC unit sale 3mma IC unit sales corrected for inventory 3mma Inventory days (right axis) - Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan IC inventory [days] - Source: VLSI Research, WSTS, ASML Last data point: April 2010 / Slide 10

11 LOGIC World-wide under-investment in advanced logic capacity requires a structural catch up Foundries 80% Capital Intensity 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: ASML Marketing (4/10) / Slide

12 Exposures Exposures Litho layer stacks per sector DRAM I-line ArF EUVL / Slide LOGIC F² 6-8F² 6F² BWL - 6F² - EUV Node [nm] / Technology I-line ArF ArF-i EUVL ASML Mar Node [nm] / Technology Source: ASML Marketing (03/2010) ASML Mar-10 Exposures Exposures NVM I-line ArF EUVL NAND 3D- ReRam Node [nm] / Technology MPU ArF ArF-i EUVL Node [nm] / Technology ASML Mar ASML Mar

13 IC unit distribution over time Litho Layers grow with each node transition 80% DRAM node distribution 70% NAND - FG/ReRAM node distribution 70% 60% % of Units 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% nm 22nm 25nm 28nm 32nm 38nm 45nm 55nm 65nm 80nm 90nm 110nm 130nm % of Units 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% nm ReRAM 12nm FG 15nm FG 18nm FG 20nm FG 22nm FG 28nm FG 35nm FG 42nm FG 55nm FG 65nm FG 80nm FG 90nm FG LOGIC/MCU/DSP node distribution MPU node distribution 30% 80% 25% 70% % of Units 20% 15% 10% 22nm 32nm 45nm 65nm 90nm 130nm 150nm 180nm 250nm 350nm % of Units 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 12nm 16nm 22nm 32nm 45nm 65nm 90nm 5% 10% 0% % Source: ASML Marketing (03/2010) / Slide 13

14 DRAM industry wafer production capacity 2 concurrent node transitions in 2010 driving Capex and cost reductions Wafer Starts [300 mm equiv. KWSM] DRAM WW Monthly Wafer Production Split by Node 1XX nm -200mm 9x nm -200 mm 8x nm -200 mm 9x nm 8x nm 6x nm 5x nm 4x nm 3x nm 2x nm * Gartner DRAM bit forecast (3/10): Mio GB (new): YoY gr.: +24% +57% +47% Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Source: ASML (4/10) / Slide 14

15 NAND industry wafer production capacity 2 concurrent node transitions in 2010 driving Capex and cost reductions 1400 NAND WW Monthly Wafer Starts Split by Node and Utilization 7x-200 mm 6x-200 mm 5x-200 mm 7x nm 6x nm Wafer Starts [300 mm equiv. KWSM] x nm 4x nm 3x nm 2x nm 1x nm * Gartner NAND bit forecast (3/10): Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q Mio GB (new): YoY gr.: +43% +66% +84% Source: ASML (4/10) / Slide 15

16 ASML Systems: 300mm Memory Average number of systems required for new fab 3xnm NAND 4xnm DRAM ArF ArF ArF ArF ArF ArF 32 litho layers 37 litho layers 120k wafers/month 100k wafers/month / Slide 16

17 DRAM shrink creates bit growth and lowers cash cost DRAM MAIN DRAM SPOT & CONTRACT PRICES (01/ YTD) 2.8 1Gb DDR2 667 SPOT PRICE 1Gb DDR2 667 CONTRACT PRICE 1Gb DDR SPOT PRICE 2.4 1Gb DDR CONTRACT PRICE Chip ASP [$US] mm cash-costs for 6x nm 1 Gb DRAM between 1.0 & 1.2 USD 300 mm cash-costs for 5x nm 1 Gb DRAM between 0.8 & 0.9 USD 300 mm cashcosts for 7x nm 1 Gb DRAM between 1.4 & 1.6 USD 1,8 US$ cash profit per DDR3 IC (>65% GM, if made at 5x nm) Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Source: DRAMeXchange (2/6/2010), ASML MCC / Slide mm cash-costs for 4x nm 1 Gb DRAM between 0.65 & 0.75 USD Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10

18 / Slide 18 Future trends

19 A large technology driver until 2020 Source: Morgan Stanley (12/09) / Slide 19

20 IC segment roadmaps sustained aggressive pace ASML supports shrink roadmap 200 Logic Resolution/half pitch, "Shrink" [nm] AT:1200 XT:1400 XT:1700i 1 year/node XT:1900i 18 months/node NXT:1950i DRAM NAND NXE: years/node ARF ARFi 20 NXE:3300 EUV *Average customer input, (1/10) / Slide 20 Year of production start*

21 Customer lithography roadmap by sector DRAM Node = HP [nm] NAND Node = HP [nm] MPU Node / HP [nm] 45 / 80 YEAR / / / / 22 LOGIC Node / HP [nm] 45 / / / / / 35 DPT 15/30 Single exposure Double patterning ie.,spacer Double patterning LELE EUV EUV INSERTION TIME FAVORED BY DESIGN LIMITATIONS, COST AND PROCESS CONTROL REQUIREMENTS OF DOUBLE PATTERNING, MAKING EUV PROCESS OF CHOICE WHEN ACHIEVING ITS COST TARGETS Source: ASML Marketing (4/10) / Slide 21

22 ASML s R&D focus is on three strategic programs TWINSCAN NXT Holistic Lithography EUV / Slide 22

23 Technology Leadership - Reinforced Immersion Lithography: - Installed Base >160 Systems - leading performance on CD imaging uniformity well below 1 nm and overlay of less than 2 nm - 28 systems in backlog end Q More than 10 NXT installed and producing NXT:1950i EUV: - 6 systems shipping thru mid Taking orders for 2012 NXE:3100 Source: ASML / Slide 23

24 Holistic Litho: A requirement to enable next nodes Process Window Process Control Pre-production: enlarges the process window further and earlier through pattern optimization and scanner tuning Production: ensures that the process stays in the sweet spot of the process window maximized for the specific application at hand, increasing yield and tool availability / Slide 24

25 Holistic Litho Addressing process control To keep process in application specific window center using computational lithography, cost effective metrology and feedback loops Data Scanner settings design/ mask data SMO FlexRay Tuning Scanner settings Wafer data Wafer data BaseLiner Control Scanner settings Data Scanner settings Value to Customers: Higher Product Yield Faster time to market for new chip designs / Slide 25

26 / Slide 26 Summary

27 ASML Strategy Continue the large R&D outlay to ensure leadership and provide customers with enabling technologies Improve profitability further by: Improving product mix towards value added software support tools Keeping fixed cost structure to a low break even point, while growing top line Improving further operational performance, by reducing cycle times further, improving its yield and developing even stronger supplier partnerships. Continue to returning cash to investors through our existing dividend policy and current excess cash return program Execute on revenue growth trajectory available to ASML in Semiconductor Lithography, and keep reviewing synergistic developments outside Semiconductors for potential limited investments / Slide 27

28 ASML Trajectory ASML confirms its leadership in offering lithography technology that enables the industry's shrink roadmaps and therefore makes ASML the partner of choice for all leading Semiconductor Manufacturers ASML confirms that it has the appropriate size and know how to continue leading the industry through 2015 and beyond in a Lithography market which supports ASML s target for 5B Euro revenues at current cycle peak. / Slide 28

29 / Slide 29