2011 TMT Predictions.
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1 2011 TMT Predictions. October 2011
2 Deloitte s TMT predictions was released in 60 countries and launched in 60+ cities in Predictions was first published in
3 Predictions Methodology 7,000 specialists in TMT, tax, audit, risk, corporate finance and consulting Reports and discussions with key experts at industry analysts and financial institutions Deloitte TMT Research Macroeconomic research Projects / discussions with industry bodies Discussions with clients around the world 4
4 2010 TMT Predictions Report Card Duncan Stewart Director Deloitte Canada Research March 2011
5 2010 Predictions report card Technology Smaller than a netbook and bigger than a smartphone net tablets arrive Moore s Law is alive and well in 2010 Cloud computing: more than hype but less than hyper Thinking thin is in again: virtual desktop infrastructures challenge the PC IT procurement stands on its head CleanTech makes a comeback. But solar stays in the shadows From gray to green: technology reinvents cement Legend Didn t come true as we predicted Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far Came true exactly as much as we predicted 6
6 Smaller than a netbook, and bigger than a smartphone Net tablets arrive 7
7 2010 Predictions report card Media Linear's got legs: the television and radio schedule stays supreme The shift to online advertising: more selective, but the trend continues ereaders fill a niche, but ebooks fly off the (virtual) shelves Publishing fights back: paywalls and micropayments TV and the web belong together, but not necessarily on the same screen Music as a service rises up the charts Video on demand takes off thanks to the vending machine One step back, two steps forward for 3D TV Legend Didn t come true as we predicted Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far Came true exactly as much as we predicted 8
8 3D TV falls flat $ 3,
9 2010 Predictions report card Telecommunications The smartphone becomes a search phone Mobile VoIP becomes a social network Widening the bottleneck: telecom technology helps decongest the mobile network Paying for what we eat: carriers change data pricing and make regulators happy Nixing the nines: reliability redefined and reassessed Contract 2.0: long term solutions shorten and multiply The line goes leaner. And greener. Legend Didn t come true as we predicted Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far Came true exactly as much as we predicted 10
10 We are in the post-pc era* Android is the next Microsoft* We want to watch what we want, when we want, on any device* Everything gets faster forever* Facebook is the next Google* 11
11 Smartphones and tablets: more than half of all computers aren t computers anymore 12
12 Tablet computers: toys no more 13
13 We are in the post-pc era* Android is the next Microsoft* We want to watch what we want, when we want, on any device* Everything gets faster forever* Facebook is the next Google* 14
14 15
15 We are in the post-pc era* Android is the next Microsoft* We want to watch what we want, when we want, on any device* Everything gets faster forever* Facebook is the next Google* 16
16 17
17 #4 We are passive viewers and linear addicts According to BBM Canada, adults 18+ watch 29.1 average weekly hours of television (National PPM data averaged over first 47 weeks of 2009/10 broadcast year). Of this total, the average weekly hours of live viewing is 28.2 (96.9% of viewing), while the average weekly hours of playback viewing is just 0.91 (3.1% of viewing). 18
18 TV is the fire that the tribe gathers around Duncan, you idiot. Why are you fishing for the Daily Double when you hardly have any money? #jeopardy 19
19 How big is Netflix? According to Nielsen US, 6.5 million Netflix subscribers watched an average of 9 hours of video in February, That is 60 million hours of video. In the same month, 297 million Americans watched an average of 154 hours of TV. That is 45.7 BILLION hours of video. Netflix was <0.1% of all video watched. 20
20 We are in the post-pc era* Android is the next Microsoft* We want to watch what we want, when we want, on any device* Everything gets faster forever* Facebook is the next Google* 21
21 Bandwidth, bandwidth, bandwidth 22
22 Wireless progress Between 1957 and 2008, using better technology and smaller cells, we can send 1,000,000x more data per hertz of spectrum. Between 2011 and 2015, the same techniques will allow us to send 3x as much data per hertz. Wireless data growth is going to be about 280% in
23 Radio Spectrum 24
24 We are in the post-pc era* Android is the next Microsoft* We want to watch what we want, when we want, on any device* Everything gets faster forever* Facebook is the next Google* 25
25 26
26 Internet brain: Search, hunt, acquire I wonder if Amazon has gazelles on sale? 27
27 Social network brain: relax, share, socialize So, two hippos walk into a bar 28
28 29
29 30
30 31
31 Stage 0 Social Media 32
32 Stage 1 Social Media 33
33 Stage 2 Social Media 34
34 Stage 3 Social Media 35
35 Stage 4 Social Media 36
36 TMT Predictions customized events Duncan Stewart can deliver a tailored presentation for your office/industry! Duncan: dunstewart@deloitte.ca Follow me on Twitter: dunstewart Friend me on Facebook: facebook.com/dunstewart 37
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