Real Estate Forecast 2015
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1 Real Estate Forecast 2015
2 No Place But Up Interest Rates Rents Prices Real Estate and the Economy Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist Stewart Title Guaranty Company
3 Thank Heavens for Global Warming Think How Cold it Would be Without it Today. Ted C. Jones
4 Current Positives More Jobs Than Anytime in History YTD 58% of New Jobs Pay More Interest Rates Highly Affordable Significant Demographic Demand
5 Mega Themes Retail Boom Just Starting Demographics Kicking In Residential Renting vs. Owning Inflation Potential
6 Election -- Changes XL Pipeline -- NOPE! ThaT s IT
7 Washington, DC Stalemate
8 Gold Price Per Ounce Nominal (Not Inflation Adjusted) $1,800 $1,500 Down 34.8 Percent Since Sept 2011 $1,200 $900 $600 $300 $0 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13
9 U.S. Jobs Jobs (Millions) Seasonally Adjusted % Prior 12 Months 321,000 Net New Jobs in October Million in Past 12-Months '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
10 U.S. Monthly Job Growth Jobs Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '
11 U.S. Average Number of New Jobs Per Month Prior 12 Months Jobs - Thousands '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '
12 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor Jobs Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted 1,100 1, % Prior 12 Months 12,400 Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months 1,050 1,025 1, '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
13
14 Cleveland MSA Government Jobs Jobs (Thousands) Not Seasonally Adjusted '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
15 Cleveland MSA Manufacturing Jobs Jobs (Thousands) Not Seasonally Adjusted '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
16 Cleveland MSA Education & Health Jobs Jobs (Thousands) Not Seasonally Adjusted '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
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20 Cleveland Q Apts Industrial Retail Office Hotels
21 Q Office Market
22 Q Industrial
23 Q Apartments Q3 2014
24 Q Retail
25 Q Hotels
26 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Billions Trailing 12 Months $600 $500 $400 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up +9.77% $300 $200 $100 $0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
27 Cleveland Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Millions Trailing 12 Months $2,500 $2,000 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up -16.9% $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
28 Ohio Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Billions Trailing 12 Months $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up 6.8% '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
29 U.S. Commercial Segments Price and Performance Returns Percent 20% 10% 0% -10% '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13-20% -30% Apartment Hotel Industrial Office Retail
30 Commercial Real Estate Value and Performance Returns Annual Average Return Since Property Retail 12.29% 10.12% Industrial 11.79% 8.40% Apartments 10.03% 8.78% Office 9.52% 7.92% Hotels 7.48% 6.44% National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries
31 Offshore Buyers of US Commercial Real Estate Latest 24 Months Top Foreign Buyer Market Buyers Number Volume Market Properties $ Millions Canada 872 $23,401.0 China 80 $7,640.2 Norway 82 $6,504.7 Singapore 20 $4,758.1 Switzerland 102 $4,682.5 Germany 86 $4,616.4 Japan 58 $4,050.1 Israel 103 $3,784.5 Hong Kong 54 $3,101.5 Other 601 $25,717.5 Total 2,058 $88,256.4
32 Offshore Buyers of US Commercial Real Estate Latest 24 Months Top Foreign Buyer Market Destinations Number Volume Market Properties $ Millions Manhattan 110 $19,570.7 Los Angeles 74 $8,471.1 Boston 53 $6,192.6 Chicago 98 $4,373.1 Washington, DC 34 $4,290.6 San Francisco 51 $3,983.6 Hawaii 13 $2,990.1 Houston 77 $2,529.7 Dallas 84 $1,938.5 Other 1,464 $33,916.4 Total 2,058 $88,256.4
33 U.S. Existing Home Sales Sales -- Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate Millions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec National Association of REALTORS
34 U.S. Existing Home Sales Median Price -- $ Thousands $230 $220 $210 $200 $190 $180 $170 $ Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec National Association of REALTORS
35 U.S. Existing Home Sales Sales Not Seasonally Adjusted - Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec National Association of REALTORS
36 U.S. Existing Sales Actual Forecast Percent Change Actual Quarterly Sales Forecast Error Percent Sales Sequentially Y-O-Y Jan 281, ,246 22, % 319,096 Feb 282, ,399 15, % 337,719 Mar 355, ,940 10, % 438,244 1,095, % 19.3% Apr 422, ,533 (50,467) -12.0% 458,654 May 473, ,877 (23,123) -4.9% 488,953 Jun 506, ,939 (7,061) -1.4% 515,766 1,463, % 4.5% Jul 494, ,292 (4,708) -1.0% 498,736 Aug 479, ,586 31, % 515,480 Sep 436, ,861 (23,139) -5.3% 444,305 1,458, % 3.5% Oct 443, ,422 (578) -0.1% 443,000 Nov 352, ,970 36, % 388,970 Dec 358, ,824 1,190, % 3.2% Total 4,889,889 8, % Total 5,207, % Ted s Latest Forecast
37 U.S. Existing Home Sales Recession Average Number of Sales Per Month Prior 12 Months Thousands % -19.4% -42.0% Peak To Trough '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 0
38 Peak-to-Trough Impact of Sales & Price -- Existing Home Sales Decline Period Sales Price* Net % 12.3% -38.8% % 10.7% -8.7% % -20.7% -62.8% * +5% increase in home price = 3.68% increase in statutory premiums -5% decline in home price = 3.64% decline in statutory premiums
39 New Home Sales Thousands Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate 12-Month Moving Average 1,500 1,250 1, '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 ' '13 '14
40 NE Ohio Home Sales Number Per Month 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
41 NE Ohio Existing Home Sales Average Number Per Month For Prior 12 Months 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
42 Northeast Ohio Existing Home Prices Median Price Prior 12 Month Average $175 $ % $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 $0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
43 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f Cleveland et al Residential Building Permits Number of Dwelling Units 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Single Family Months Ending November 2014 Multifamily 2,852 New Dwelling Units in 12-Months Ending November ,400 New Jobs = 4.35 Jobs Per New Dwelling
44 Money Supply M1 $ Billions Seasonally Adjusted $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 Currency, Checking Accounts, Demand Deposits Up 105 Percent Since January 2008 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Federal Reserve Board of Governors
45 10-Year Treasury Rate
46 10-Year Treasury Rates Percent '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
47 30-Year Residential Rates Expect 5.6 to 6 Percent in Next 12 Months 4.7% 4.5% 4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 5- Jan 10- May 13- Sep 17- Jan 23- May 26- Sep 30- Jan 5- Jun 16- Oct
48 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f '15f 1-4 Family Residential Lending Purchase $ Billions Lending Volume $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Fannie Mae
49 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f '15f $2,700 $2,400 $2,100 $1,800 $1,500 $1,200 $900 $600 $300 $0 1-4 Family Residential Lending Refinance $ Billions Lending Volume Fannie Mae
50 U.S. Leisure & Hospitality Jobs Recession Millions of Jobs Seasonally-Adjusted '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '
51 Cleveland MSA Leisure and Hospitality Jobs Jobs (Thousands) Not Seasonally Adjusted '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
52 U.S. Real Retail & Food Service Sales $ Billions Seasonally Adjusted $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
53 Household Debt Service as a Percent of Household Disposable Income Percent '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 FED Board of Governors, BEA
54 U.S. Real Retail & Food Service Sales $ Billions Seasonally Adjusted $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
55 Light Weight Vehicle Sales Millions Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Bureau of Economic Analysis
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59 Natural Gas Price Delivered to Commercial Customers vs. WTI Crude Oil Gas Per 1,000 Cubic Feet, Oil Per Barrel Natural Gas $30 Oil $120 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0
60 Office Rents Past Four Years Urban Rents Increased 18.7% Suburban Rents Increased 3.3%
61 52 Percent of U.S. Households Receive Some Form of Government Benefits $$$$$$$$$s
62 2015 Economic Concerns Politicians Rather Than Leaders GSEs Rural Land Bubble Inflation & Interest Rates Government Revenues & Regulations Newton s Third Law of Motion
63 Telling It Like It Is Ted Twitter DrTCJ blog.stewart.com/ted stewart.com It is What it Is Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist Stewart Title Guaranty Company
64
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