2016 Market Update. Gary Keller and Jay Papasan Keller Williams Realty, Inc.
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1 2016 Market Update Gary Keller and Jay Papasan
2 Housing Market Cycles
3 1. Home Sales The Numbers That Drive U.S. 2. Home Price 3. Months Supply of Inventory 4. Mortgage Rates Real Estate
4 1. Home Sales Nationally home sales are on pace for another post-crisis record. However, sales are slowing in some markets as affordability becomes a serious issue '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 Feb Apr Jun Total Annual Single-Family Home Sales (in Millions) 2016 Monthly Home Sales (Annualized) Source: NAR
5 3. Home Price - Annual Home prices continue to rise as mortgage rates remain low. Price gains have been in the sustainable range for the majority of $222 $222 $235 (projected) $179 $198 $166 $95 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Annual Median Home Price (in Thousands) Source: NAR
6 4. Months Supply of Inventory We are now seeing many markets split by price point. Entry-level homes remain in a buyer s market, but some luxury and move-up markets show signs of shifting. Buyer s Mkt Jun '14 Sep Dec Mar Jun '15 Sep Dec Mar Jun '16 Seller s Mkt Balanced Inventory Balanced = 6 months Source: NAR
7 7. Mortgage Rates - Monthly Home sales benefited from near record-low interest rates so far in 2016, as lackluster economic growth has kept the Federal Reserve from making substantial changes to policy and pushed more money into treasuries. 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 4.2% 3.4% 3.35% Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Monthly Mortgage Rate Source: Freddie Mac
8 1. Gross Domestic Product The U.S. Economy 2. Unemployment 3. Inflation
9 1. Gross Domestic Product - Quarterly Growth has been held back by low levels of investment in 2016, but consumer spending remains strong. 0.2% 3.1% 2.7% 1.4% 2.0% 3.9% 3.9% 2.7%2.5% 1.3% 1.7% 2.9% 0.8% 4.6% 2.3% 2.5% 1.6% 0.1% 4.5% 3.5% 2.7% 1.8% 4.6% 4.3% 2.1% 3.9% 2% 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 0.8% -2.7% -1.9% -0.5% -1.5% -0.9% -5.4% -8.2% Q2 '07 Q4 '07 Q2 '08 Q4 '08 Q2 '09 Q4 '09 Q2 '10 Q4 '10 Q2 '11 Q4 '11 Q2 '12 Q4 '12 Q2 '13 Q4 '13 Q2 '14 Q4 '14 Q2 '15 Q4 '15 Q2 '16 Real GDP Growth Rate, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted (Percentage) Source: BEA
10 2. Unemployment - Monthly Employment has been stable below 5% so far in 2016, as other statistics on unemployment continue to show progress. 10% 5.7% 5% 4.9% Jan '08 Jan '09 Jan '10 Jan '11 Jan '12 Jan '13 Jan '14 Jan '15 Jul '16 Source: BLS
11 3. Inflation - Annual Persistent low levels of inflation will be another factor holding down interest rates. 5.4% 4.5% 2% 2% 1.4% 1.5% '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 (projected) CPI (Includes Energy and Food) Core CPI (Excludes Energy and Food) Target = 2% Source: BEA
12 1. Affordability Special Topics 2. New Home Construction 3. New Home Sales
13 1. Affordability Affordability has been declining since January as prices continue to outpace wage growth '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Yearly Monthly 2016 Affordability Definition: A value of 100 means that a family earning the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that a family earning the median income has more than enough income. Source: NAR
14 2. New Home Construction Construction has been focused in higher price ranges, which may create issues down the line. 1, Historical '15 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun New Homes (in Thousands) Source: Census Bureau
15 3. New Home Sales (compared to 2000) The lack of construction in the entry-level price range has contributed to shortages, causing extremely low inventory levels of entry-level houses in many cities '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 21 <$200K $200 to $300K $300K to $400K >$400k Source: Census Bureau
16 The Numbers That Drive Canadian Real Estate 1. Home Sales 2. Home Price 3. Inventory 4. Mortgage Rates
17 1. Home Sales - Monthly Home sales have been at record paces in Canada despite slowing sales in Alberta. 41K 42K 42K 42K 42K 39K 38K 39K 41K 42K 43K 43K 43K 43K 42K 43K 44K 44K 44K 44K 46K 47K 45K 45K Jul '14 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Total Monthly Home Sales Source: CREA
18 2. Home Price - Monthly The Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver areas continue to be the main drivers of price growth in the Canadian market. $420K $409K $414K $402K $399K $405K$402K $449K$450K $453K $432K $439K $437K $433K $433K $470K $455K $456K$454K $503K $508K$508K $503K$503K Jul '14Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan '15Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average Monthly Home Price Source: CREA
19 3. Inventory - National Inventory levels fell into seller s market territory for the first time since 2009 as sales accelerated through the first half of % 40% 54% 56% 56% 56% 56% 52% 50% 53% 54% 56% 58% 57% 57% 57% 57% 58% 57% 56% 59% 60% 62% 65% 65% 63% Seller s Balanced Buyer s Jul '14 Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan '15Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul '15 Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan '16Feb Mar Apr May Jun Monthly Single-Family Home Sales 40% 60% Source: CREA
20 4. Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates held steady for first half of 2016, and rose slightly in July. 12% 12% 13% 13% 11% Yearly Monthly 10% 8% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5% 4.7% Average Annual Mortgage Rate (Percentage) '13 Jan '15 Mar '15 - '16 Actual Monthly Mortgage Rate (Percentage) May Jul Sep Nov Jan '16 Mar May Jul '16 Source: Bank of Canada
21 Industry Update Restrictions on how real estate teams advertise are becoming more widespread. 1. A bill recently passed in South Carolina that outlaws the use of realty and real estate in team names. 2. Nine other states already have regulations on team advertising.
22 Technology Trends 3. UPSTREAM 2. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 4. RESPONSE TIMES 1. PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS Search 5. SHOWING INNOVATION 6. TRANSPARENT OFFER MANAGEMENT Home Ownership Transaction
23 1. Predictive Analytics Increased competition in the predictive analytics space will drive accuracy, leading to higher conversion rates. 1. LEAD SCORING 3. AVMs 2. TARGETED MARKETING
24 2. Artificial Intelligence ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE - The theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and translation between languages. Source: CB Insights
25 3. Upstream Model MLS Broker Public Portal Zillow Realtor.com Homes.com Trulia 300+ others KWLS
26 4. Instantaneous Response Time The industry is beginning to leverage technology to improve a longtime weakness: response time. 71% 5h 35m 45% 51% 1h 45m 30m Text Phone Agent Response Rate Text Phone Agent Response Time Source: Baylor University
27 5. Showing Innovations Showings are going through a period of innovation where different providers are offering users unique tools to schedule and tour showings on demand with or without an agent. 1. AGENT-LESS SHOWINGS 3. ON-DEMAND 2. SMART LOCKBOXES
28 6. Transparent Offer Management New competitors are entering the real estate market offering transparent offer management solutions that allow consumers to place offers on homes online with or without an agent. Some are even making these offers visible to the public. OFFER HISTORY List Price $350,000 Date Price Status 8/5/16 $325,000 Declined 8/1/16 $318,000 Declined MAKE AN OFFER 7/25/16 $312,000 Declined
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