Urban Land Institute. November Make Your Move. Brian Beaulieu ITR Economics.

Transcription

1 Urban Land Institute November 212 Make Your Move Brian Beaulieu ITR Economics

2 Results for Duration Forecast Actual GDP 18 $ $ (-1.4%) US Ind Prod (12MMA) 93.8 (.8%) EU Ind. Prod (12MMA) 11.2 (.1%) CA Ind. Prod (.%) Retail Sales 18 $2.116 Trillion $2.16 (-.5%) Housing Ths Units 67 ( 4.8%) Employment million (-.9%) CPI % 3.2% * End of year 12-month index estimate

3 Results for Country Duration Accuracy Germany % France % Italy % United Kingdom % Spain % China % Japan % Brazil % EU Industries %

4 US/Global Recovery 4 Leading indicators pointing up Liquidity is not an issue Stimulative monetary policy Employment rising (companies right-sized) Banks are lending Retail Sales are rising Construction is improving Deficit spending continues

5 World GDP, Bils of US $, Current Prices 5 Source: IMF Trillion US$ Percent of 211 World GDP

6 Real Gross Domestic Product Trillions of $ '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 1.5

7 US Industrial Production to ITR Leading Indicator US IP 21 Indicator Indicator - Monthly US IP - 12/12 '8 '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 ' USIP 12/12 Indicator - Monthly

8 Phase 1 Data Preparation 8 Raw Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MMT / % 13.6% 13.2% 15.1% 13.5% 14.1% 11.3% 11.5% 1.1% 1.5% 12MMT / % 3/12 Rate-of-Change = December 211 3MMT December 21 3MMT = = 1.5% /12 Rate-of-Change = December MMT December 21 12MMT 1 1 = = 12.7%

9 Phase 3 Generate the Quantitative Forecast 9 Internal Trends Leading Economic Indicators ITR Long Term Business Cycle Theory News and Market Observations

10 Output - Deliverables 1 Applicable Advice Accurate Forecasts

11 US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product % % -7.1% GDP US IP -5.3% -14.6% '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 ' Year-over-year Quarter to Quarter (3/12)

12 Global Industrial Production 12 Year-Over-Year Growth Rates %

13 US to Europe Industrial Production US Europe US Europe Annual Average Data Trends

14 Western Europe Industrial Production 14 Year-Over-Year Growth Rates %

15 Gross Domestic Product by State All Industry Total, Millions of current dollars

16 US, Minnesota & the Plains Annual GSP Growth Rate % vs. 27.9%college educated -6 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 U.S. Minnesota Plains

17 Unemployment Rates ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 US Minnesota

18 Minnesota Construction Industry Employment 18 R-O-C 12 3/12 MMA / MMA 12MMA '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 Thousands of Units 1 8

19 Minneapolis/St. Paul Construction Industry Employment 19 R-O-C 2 3/12 MMA / MMA 12MMA '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 2 Thousands of Units

20 Employment Private Sector Employment Mils of Jobs '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 ' Annual Data Trend

21 Unemployment Rate With and Without the Recover Plan

22 Total U.S. Public Debt (% of GDP)

23 Federal Spending Without & With Sequester Cuts Annual and Cumulative, FY 213*221 23

24 Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP 24

25 Costs by Age Categories 25

26 Caught in the Web Who can do what to whom 26 Federal Reserve Act of pages Glass-Steagall Act 37 Dodd-Frank 848 Not rules, but instructions on how to create more regulations and bureaucracies Source: The Economist

27 U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil Declining Net imports as a share of domestic consumption 27 6% 6% 58% 57% 52% 49% 45%

28 G7 Productivity 28 Source: OECD / National Post

29 US Manufacturing as a % of GDP (Value Added) % % '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 1 3MMA

30 Consumer Price Index All Items /12 12/12 '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14-3 Rates-of-Change

31 Velocity of Money /12 12/12 '6 '8 '1 '12 ' Rates-of-Change

32 Crude Oil Futures Prices RAW 12MMA 5 25 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 Light & Sweet $ per Barrel, Data Trends

33 US Industrial Production Index Forecast Through December '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16-15 Annual Average Index

34 Trends 1 34 Nonresidential Construction Wholesale Trade New Orders Housing Production Financial Retail Foreign Prices Medical Soft Landing Soft Landing Hard Landing

35 Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft 35 R-O-C MMT /12 12/12 Feb ' Oct '9 1 Jul '8-4 12MMT $ MMT Nov '9 6-8 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 4 Billions of $

36 M2 Money Supply 36 R-O-C MMA Oct '9 1 12/ / Dec '9 Nov ' Actual MMA Jul '95 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 2. Trillions of 82$

37 Mortgage Rates to Federal Funds Mortgage Rates Federal Funds Raw Data

38 US Industrial Production to Corporate Bond Prices US IP 16 Bonds US IP Corporate Bonds /12 Rates-of-Change

39 US Government 1-Year Bond Yields to Municipal Bond Yields Municipal Bonds Long Term Bonds '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 Raw Data

40 US Leading Indicator Actual 12MMA '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 6

41 Purchasing Managers Index Raw '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 ' Raw Data

42 Chicago Fed National Activity Index MMA '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 ' Month Moving Average

43 University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index /12 3/12 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 ' /12 Rate-of-Change

44 Delinquency Rates on Consumer Loans Percentage Percentage Year Average 1 Year Average Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate Consumer Credit Card Delinquency Rate '9 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 ' MMA Data Trends

45 Delinquency Rates for C&I Loans / % -41.1% 12/12 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 ' /12 & 12/12 Rates-of-Change

46 Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles R-O-C 14 MMT /12 3/ MMT $ MMT '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 1. Trillions of 82-84$

47 Personal Savings '8 '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 Billions of $, Annual Data Trend SAAR

48 Stock Prices Index Raw 12MMA Data Trends

49 S&P 5 to FTSE 1 S&P 5 FTSE S&P 5 FTSE '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 Data Trends

50 S&P 5 to S&P Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) S&P S&P TSX 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 5 2 S&P 5 S&P TSX 2, '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 Data Trends

51 S&P 5 to Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEA) S&P S&P 5 SSEA '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 51 SSEA 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Data Trends

52 Existing Home Sales R-O-C 3 MMT /12 12/ MMT 12MMT '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 3 Millions of Units

53 Housing Starts 53 R-O-C /12 12/ MMT MMT 12MMT '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14.2 Millions of Units

54 Building Permits '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 U.S. Minnesota -5 12/12 Rates-of-Change

55 Minnesota Building Permits 55 R-O-C 1 MMT /12 12/ MMT 12MMT '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 Thousands of Units

56 Minneapolis Area Building Permits R-O-C 15 Apartment vacancy low at 2.4% and rents on the rise MMT /12 12/ MMT 12MMT '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 ''6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 Thousands of Units

57 US to Minneapolis/St. Paul Median Home Sale Prices US Median Price Minneapolis Median Price $169.2 $158.4 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 ' Annual Data Trends

58 Minnesota Housing Price Index Raw 1 1 Year over Year % Change

59 Housing Starts to Multi-Family Residential Construction Starts Construction Starts Construction '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 ' /12 Rates-of-Change

60 US Industrial Production to Non-Residential Construction Index 155 Construction Index Construction Data Trends

61 Architecture Billings Index /12 12/12 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 ' /12 Rates-of-Change

62 Private Commercial Buildings Construction to Multi-Retail Buildings Construction Commercial 3 Multi-Retail MSP retail : total value and mean price rising Vacancy rate about national average at 11.5% Commercial Multi-Retail '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 ' /12 Rates-of-Change

63 Warehouse Buildings Construction R-O-C MMT /12 12/ MMT 12MMT '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 Private, Billions of Dollars

64 Public Educational Buildings Construction to State & Local Government Expenditures Construction 4 Expenditures Construction - 12/12 Expenditures - 3/12 '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 ' Rates-of-Change

65 Office Buildings Construction R-O-C /12 12/12 MSP vacancy high at 18.2%; rents expected to be rising MMT MMT MMT '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 1 Billions of $

66 213 66

67 214 67

68 Phase Management Objectives TM Recovery 1. Positive leadership modeling (culture turns to behavior) 2. Establish goals: tactical goals which lead to strategic achievement 3. Develop a system for measurement and accountability re:#2 4. Align compensation plans with #2 and #3 5. Be keenly aware of the BE (Break Even) point and check it regularly 6. Judiciously expand credit 7. Check distributions systems for readiness to accommodate increased activity 8. Review and uncover competitive advantages 9. Invest in customer market research (know what they value) 1. Improve efficiencies with investment in technology and software

69 Phase Management Objectives TM Recovery Part Start to phase out marginal opportunities 12. Add sales staff 13. Build inventories (consider lead time and turn rate) 14. Introduce new product lines 15. Determine capital equipment needs and place orders 16. Begin advertising and sales promotions 17. Hire "top" people 18. Implement plans for facilities expansion 19. Implement training programs

70 7 Must Watch Items 7 ITR Leading Indicator Housing Starts US Leading Indicator Purchasing Managers Index Retail Sales Employment Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders Available from ITR via ITR Trends Report, the ITR Advisor, or on the web

71 Phase Management Objectives TM 71 Phase Late C - Warning 9. Identify and overcome any competitive disadvantages 1. Make sure you and the management team are not in denial 11. Cross train key people 12. Watch Accounts Receivable aging 13. Increase the requirements for justification of capital expenditures 14. Evaluate vendors for strength (don t get caught honoring their warranties with no one to accept returned goods) 15. Manage the backlog through pricing and delivery, try to fill the funnel

72 Complimentary Copy of the ITR Advisor 72 Concise 4 Page Report Excellent Economic Snap Shot" Consists of Current Events, Brief Industry Segments, Snap Shot Indicators, Readers' Questions, Fed Notes, ITR Opportunity Index, and more Delivered Monthly