ARE WE HEADED INTO A RECESSION?

Transcription

1

2 ARE WE HEADED INTO A RECESSION?

3 The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished International Journal of Forecasting I look forward to the day when economists manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people, on a level with dentists. -- John Maynard Keynes

4 Quarter-Over-Quarter Growth Forecast Four Quarters Prior vs. Actual 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Recession Forecast (Four Quarters Prior) Actual '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 ' Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and United States Bureau of Economic Analysis

5 Quarter-Over-Quarter Growth Forecast Four Quarters Prior vs. Actual 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Recession Forecast (Four Quarters Prior) Actual '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 ' Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and United States Bureau of Economic Analysis

6 Forecasts: Short Term Reliability United States GDP Growth Forecasts (Calendar Years) Percent Change from Previous Year September Forecasts for Following Year January Forecasts for Predicted Year May Forecasts for Predicted Year Source: The Economist

7 Forecasts: Short Term Reliability GDP Growth Forecasted Difference From Actual Growth for The Economist Poll of Forecasters Average Growths, 15 Rich-World Countries Source: The Economist

8 Economic Expansions in the U.S Years June 2019 would mark the longest economic expansion in modern history Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, The Wall Street Journal, Applied Analysis

9 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis 74 Franklin Nat l BK 82 LatAm Debt Annual GDP Growth and Financial Events Recession 87 Stock Market Crash Annual GDP Growth 90 S&L Crisis 00 Tech Bubble 07 Subprime Crisis '70 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 '18

10 Comparative Analysis of Periods of Expansion and Real GDP Growth Trough Peak Duration (Qtrs.) Real GDP Compound Annual Growth Rate Q Q % Q Q % Recent Expansion has experienced the slowest GDP growth in history Q Q % Q Q % Q Q % Q Q % Q Q % Q Q % Q Q % Q Q % Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and Applied Analysis Q To Date % Average %

11 Market Volatility Index (VIX) Recession VIX Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)

12 RECESSION IS INEVITABLE

13 1 Debt 2 End to Aggressive Monetary Policies 3 Prolonged Government Shutdown 4 International Trade Instability 5 Global Housing Crisis 6 Global Conflict

14 1 Debt 2 End to Aggressive Monetary Policies 3 Prolonged Government Shutdown 4 International Trade Instability 5 Global Housing Crisis 6 Global Conflict

15 Public Debt as a Percent of GDP 120% 100% 104.2% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16 Debt Trends In Trillions Corporate Debt Consumer Debt Student Debt $7.0 $4.5 $1.8 $6.5 $6.0 $5.5 $5.0 $6.2 $4.0 $3.5 $4.0 $1.6 $1.4 $1.2 $1.6 $4.5 $4.0 $3.5 $3.0 $3.0 $2.5 $1.0 $0.8 $0.6 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System $2.5 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 $2.0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 $0.4 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

17 THE FUNDAMENTALS

18 Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending

19 Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending

20 Fastest Growing State in the Nation #1 Nevada Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2017 vs. 2018) Population Growth Lower Higher Rank State Annual Growth 1 Nevada +2.09% 2 Idaho +2.05% 3 Utah +1.87% 4 Arizona +1.74% 5 Florida +1.54% 6 Washington +1.48% 7 Colorado +1.42% 8 Texas +1.34% 9 South Carolina +1.25% 10 North Carolina +1.10% US Average +0.62%

21 Pittsburgh, PA Chicago, IL St. Louis, MO Detroit, MI Los Angeles, CA New York, NY Baltimore, MD Philadelphia, PA San Francisco, CA Cincinnati, OH San Diego, CA Boston, MA Miami, FL Kansas City, MO Washington, DC Minneapolis, MN Portland, OR Riverside, CA Denver, CO Sacramento, CA Houston, TX Atlanta, GA Seattle, WA Tampa, FL Phoenix, AZ San Antonio, TX Charlotte, NC Dallas, TX Las Vegas, NV Orlando, FL Population Growth Largest 30 MSAs 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2016 vs. 2017)

22 Driver s License Surrenders To Nevada By State State Surrenders Share California 27, % Florida 4, % Texas 3, % Arizona 3, % Illinois 2, % Washington 2, % Hawaii 2, % 20,000 or more 3,000 to 19,999 1,900 to 2, to 1,899 Under 700 Colorado 2, % Utah 2, % Source: UNLV CBER Note: Based on driver s license surrenders from the DMV for the latest available trailing 12-month data. New York 2, %

23 Primary Reason for Moving to Nevada 46.1% 29.3% 17.7% 12.6% 5.6% Job Retirement Lifestyle Family Health Income of Newcomers $0 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 or More Source: United Van Lines National Movers Survey

24 Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending

25 Fastest Job Growth in the Nation #1 Nevada Employment Growth Lower Higher Rank State Annual Growth 1 Nevada +3.8% 2 Arizona +3.3% 3 Washington +3.2% 4 Utah +3.1% 5 Texas +3.1% 6 Wyoming +2.9% 7 Colorado +2.8% 8 Florida +2.7% 9 Georgia +2.6% 10 New Hampshire +2.6% U.S. Average +1.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (December 2018 vs. December 2017)

26 Detroit, MI Pittsburgh, PA San Antonio, TX Los Angeles, CA New York, NY Chicago, IL Kansas City, MO St. Louis, MO Minneapolis, MN Washington, DC Tampa, FL Sacramento, CA Philadelphia, PA Boston, MA San Diego, CA Riverside, CA Charlotte, NC Denver, CO Baltimore, MD Miami, FL San Francisco, CA Cincinnati, OH Portland, OR Atlanta, GA Dallas, TX Seattle, WA Las Vegas, NV Houston, TX Phoenix, AZ Orlando, FL Employment Growth Largest 30 MSAs 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 3.4% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (December 2018 vs. December 2017)

27 Thousands Employment Las Vegas MSA 1,100 Present: 1,026,900 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 500 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

28 Employment Growth Las Vegas MSA Year-over-Year 10% 5% 90 Consecutive Months of Positive Growth 0% -5% -10% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -15% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

29 Employment Growth Las Vegas MSA Last 12 Months Leisure and Hospitality 7,900 Government 5,700 Construction 5,500 Professional and Business Services 4,900 Education and Health Services 4,900 Other Services 1,800 Financial Activities 1,400 Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Mining and Logging 0 1, Net Job Growth: +33,900 Information 0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (December 2018 vs. December 2017)

30 Unemployment Rate 16% Variance Las Vegas MSA United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

31 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Changing the Employment Base Sector Net Growth Professional and Business Services 76, , ,400 Education and Health Services 43, , ,100 Leisure and Hospitality 235, , ,100 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 129, , ,100 Government 74, , ,200 Other Services 18,900 33, ,500 Financial Activities 39,300 52, ,000 Manufacturing 20,600 24,500 +3,900 Construction 66,900 67,900 +1,000 Mining and Logging Information 13,200 11,000-2,200 Total 717,900 1,026, ,000

32 Changing the Employment Base Sector Net Job Growth (2000 vs. 2018) Share Change Professional and Business Services +65, % Education and Health Services +61, % Leisure and Hospitality +57, % Trade, Transportation and Utilities +57, % Government +38, % Other Services +14, % Financial Activities +13, % Manufacturing +3, % Construction +1, % Mining and Logging % Information -2, % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

33 More Diversified Diversifying the Job Market 75 Las Vegas Hachman Index Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Applied Analysis

34 Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending

35 Fastest Growing Personal Income Personal Income Growth Rank State Quarterly Growth Annualized Growth 1 Nevada +1.52% +6.21% 2 Washington +1.51% +6.16% 3 Arizona +1.33% +5.42% #1 Nevada 4 Colorado +1.29% +5.27% 5 New Hampshire +1.25% +5.12% Lower Higher 6 Oregon +1.25% +5.10% 7 Utah +1.17% +4.75% 8 Pennsylvania +1.16% +4.71% 9 Texas +1.14% +4.65% 10 North Dakota +1.14% +4.63% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (Q vs. Q3 2018)

36 Average Weekly Hours Nevada By Sector '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Construction 37.5 Hrs Financial Activities 35.9 Hrs. Prof. & Business Svcs Hrs. Trade, Trans. & Util Hrs. Leisure & Hospitality 29.9 Hrs. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

37 Average Weekly Earnings Nevada By Sector $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Construction $1,137 Financial Activities $965 Prof. & Business Svcs. $946 Trade, Trans. & Util. $659 Leisure & Hospitality $525

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39 ARE WAGES KEEPING PACE WITH THE COST OF LIVING?

40 Cost of Living Index (COLI) vs. Average Weekly Wage Growth Southern Nevada Cost of Living Index Average Weekly Wages Growth '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Council for Community and Economic Research 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

41 Average Weekly Wage vs. House Price Index (HPI) Growth Southern Nevada 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Average Weekly Wages - Private House Price Index -40% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Housing Finance Agency '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

42 Housing Opportunity Index Las Vegas MSA Source: National Association of Homebuilders 10 0 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

43 The Missing Middle 1 in 4 Southern Nevada Households Fall into the Missing Middle 186,000 Households 129,500 Family Households 72,700 Households with Children Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Applied Analysis

44 Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending

45 Nevada Private Business by Class Size Private Businesses Clark County Employees 2, Employees 6,737 More Than 100 Employees 1,702 54, Employees 9,787 48, Employees 13,271 Less Than 5 Employees 45,804 45,541 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 68% Clark County Share of Statewide Private Businesses

46 Employment by Class Size Nevada 558, ,124 67,533 88, , ,038 Less Than 5 Employees 5-9 Employees Employees Employees Employees More Than 100 Employees Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

47 Impact of $1 Billion Investment Indirect and Induced Job Impacts by Sector Advanced Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality Sports & Entertainment 2,580 Jobs 4,470 Jobs 4,890 Jobs Construction Government Manufacturing Professional and Business Svcs. Education and Health Services Information Natural Resources and Mining Trade, Trans. and Utilities Financial Activities Leisure and Hospitality Other Services

48 Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending

49 Wednesday, September 12, 2018 CRISIS AND CONSEQUENCES THE EPICENTER OF THE HOUSING BUST IS BOOMING AGAIN. (THAT S A WARNING SIGN.)

50 Home Closings Las Vegas Area 45,000 New Homes 70,000 Existing Homes 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 47,949 20,000 30,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 9,944 20,000 10,000 Source: SalesTraq 0 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 0 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

51 New Home Closings Las Vegas Area 45,000 40,000 38,705 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 3,793 9,944 Source: SalesTraq 0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

52 New Home Market Share Las Vegas Area 50% 45% 45.7% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 6.1% 17.2% Source: SalesTraq 0% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

53 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IS CONCERNING, BUT WHERE DO WE STAND?

54 Median Home Prices Las Vegas Area $450,000 New Homes $410,000 $450,000 Existing Homes $400,000 $400,000 $350,000 $350,000 $300,000 $300,000 $265,000 $250,000 $250,000 $200,000 $200,000 $150,000 $150,000 $100,000 $100,000 Source: SalesTraq $50,000 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 $50,000 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

55 Fastest House Price Appreciation #1 Nevada House Price Index Growth Lower Higher Rank State Growth 1 Nevada +15.0% 2 Idaho +13.0% 3 Utah +10.4% 4 Washington +9.9% 5 Colorado +9.8% 6 Florida +9.2% 7 Georgia +8.9% 8 Arizona +8.8% 9 California +8.6% 10 Tennessee +7.7% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (Q vs. Q3 2018)

56 Baltimore, MD Chicago, IL New York, NY St. Louis, MO Washington, DC Portland, OR Boston, MA Cincinnati, OH Pittsburgh, PA San Antonio, TX Philadelphia, PA San Diego, CA Houston, TX Minneapolis, MN Dallas, TX Charlotte, NC Kansas City, MO Sacramento, CA Riverside, CA Los Angeles, CA Detroit, MI Miami, FL Phoenix, AZ Denver, CO Orlando, FL Seattle, WA Atlanta, GA Tampa, FL San Francisco, CA Las Vegas, NV House Price Index Growth Largest 30 MSAs 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 18.1% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (Q vs. Q3 2018)

57 San Francisco, CA San Diego, CA Los Angeles, CA Seattle, WA Boston, MA Denver, CO New York, NY Washington, DC Portland, OR Sacramento, CA Riverside, CA Miami, FL Baltimore, MD Las Vegas, NV Minneapolis, MN Phoenix, AZ Orlando, FL Chicago, IL Dallas, TX Charlotte, NC Philadelphia, PA Houston, TX Tampa, FL San Antonio, TX Atlanta, GA Kansas City, MO St. Louis, MO Cincinnati, OH Pittsburgh, PA Detroit, MI N/A N/A Single Family Median Home Price Largest 30 MSAs $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 $294,600 Source: National Association of Realtors (Q3 2018) Note: Pittsburgh and Detroit not reported by the same source.

58 Growth in Values Since 2005 In Western States Montana Utah Idaho Washington Colorado Oregon Wyoming Alaska New Mexico Hawaii Arizona California Nevada 9% Source: National Association of Realtors (ACS and FHFA) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

59 Nevada Homeowner s Equity Q Q Q Under Water 69.6% Under Water 25.4% Under Water 4.7% Positive 30.4% Positive 74.6% Positive 95.3% Source: CoreLogic

60 Homeowner s Equity United States Nevada Under Water 4.1% Under Water 4.7% Positive 95.9% Positive 95.3% Source: CoreLogic

61 SUPPLY-DEMAND DYNAMICS WILL DICTATE FUTURE PERFORMANCE

62 Employment-Growth-to-Permit Ratio (E/P) 6 4 Las Vegas United States Source: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States Census Bureau and Applied Analysis

63 Effective Months of Availability Multiple Listings Service (MLS) United States: 4.2 Months Southern Nevada: 3.3 Months 3.3 Source: SalesTraq '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

64 Median Days on the Market Median Days 46 Days U.S. Average Median Days on the Market Source: SalesTraq, GLVAR/MLS, NAR Less Than to to to to 165

65 Median Days on the Market Las Vegas Area Single Family Market December 2018: 26 Days December 2017: 19 Days Source: SalesTraq, GLVAR/MLS '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

66 Typical Las Vegas Area Homeowners Three Months Ago

67 Typical Las Vegas Area Homeowners Two Months Ago

68 Typical Las Vegas Area Homeowners One Month Ago

69 Typical Las Vegas Area Homeowners Today

70 Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending

71 Inventory by Market (Square Feet) Las Vegas Area In Millions 58 Office 130 Industrial 56 Retail Source: Applied Analysis '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 ' '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 ' '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

72 Vacancy Rate by Market Las Vegas Area Office Industrial Retail 26% 18% 14% 24% 22% 16% 14% 12% 20% 12% 10% 18% 10% 8% 16% 14% 17.7% 8% 6% 6.7% 6% 7.4% Source: Applied Analysis 12% '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 4% '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 4% '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

73 Net Absorption (Square Feet) Las Vegas Area In Millions Office Industrial Retail Source: Applied Analysis -2.0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18-6 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 ' '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

74 Under Construction and Planned Space (Square Feet) Las Vegas Area In Millions 12 Office Industrial Retail Source: Applied Analysis 0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Planned Under Construction 0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

75 CHANGING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPES: OFFICE

76 CHANGING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPES: OFFICE

77 CHANGING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPES: INDUSTRIAL

78 CHANGING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPES: INDUSTRIAL

79 CHANGING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPES: RETAIL

80 CHANGING COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPES: RETAIL

81 Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending

82 Billions Taxable Retail Sales Clark County Trailing 12-Month Total $50 $45 Present: $43.6B $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Source: Nevada Department of Taxation

83 Taxable Retail Sale Growth Clark County Trailing 12-Month, Year-over-Year 20% 15% 10% 94 Consecutive Months of Positive Growth Source: Nevada Department of Taxation 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17

84 Taxable Retail Sale Growth Clark County Ten Largest Sectors 2017 vs Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods [6.1%] 12.2% Bldg. Material, Garden Equip. & Supplies [4.1%] 8.5% Health & Personal Care Stores [2.1%] Rental &Leasing Services [3.7%] Food & Beverage Stores [3.1%] General Merchandise Stores [8.2%] Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers [11.3%] Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores [7.8%] Electronics & Appliance Stores [2.5%] 6.2% 5.7% 4.7% 4.1% 3.8% 2.2% 1.1% Food Services & Drinking Places [23.8%] -2.8% Source: Nevada Department of Taxation (October 2017 vs. October 2018) Note: Excludes Miscellaneous Store Retailers sales due to classification changes.

85 Taxable Retail Sales Clark County Inflation-Adjusted Per Capita (2000=100) $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $13,081 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18e Source: Nevada Department of Taxation; United States Census Bureau; and Applied Analysis Note: 2018 estimate uses taxable retail sales data for the 12 months ending October.

86 Population Growth Employment & Unemployment Residential Housing Market Commercial & Industrial Sectors Wages & Salaries Business Formation Taxable Retail Spending Visitor Volume & Visitor Spending

87 Millions Visitor Volume Las Vegas Area Trailing 12-Month Total Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

88 Visitor Volume Growth Las Vegas Area Year-over-Year 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% October 1, 2017 Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority -15% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

89 Average Daily Room Rate Las Vegas Area Annual Average Annual Growth $140 $128 15% $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 0.2% $0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 TTM -25% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 TTM Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority

90 Billions Gross Gaming Revenue Clark County Annual Total Annual Growth $10.5 $10.0 $10.2 6% 4% 2% 2.2% $9.5 0% -2% $9.0-4% -6% $8.5-8% -10% $8.0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 TTM -12% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 TTM Source: Nevada Department of Taxation

91 2019 & BEYOND

92 SUSTAINABILITY

93 324,000

94 State Senator Mo Denis When the Nevada Plan for Funding Education Was Created

95 MS WV OK UT FL AZ NM SD AR MO ID AL LA KS NC TN SC VA ME CO MT KY TX NE ND IN WA WI GA IA MN NV NH HI OH VT WY DE MI OR IL RI PA AK MD NJ CT MA CA NY Average Teacher Salaries By State $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $57,812 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Source: National Education Association (2018 Estimate)

96 30 INMI WA NE FL OR UT CA AZ NV Student Teacher Ratio By State VT NJ ME NH NY WY CT MO VA ND MA SD MT KS IA WV DE PA TN AK MD SC TX NM GA NC AR OH WI MS AL CO MN LA IL KY RI ID HI OK Source: National Education Association (2018 Estimate)

97 AZ UT NV FL OK MS NE ID WA LA NM AR OR IN AL WV KY CO NC SC SDHI TN TX WI KS MN MI CA GA OH MT MO IA VA IL RI ND DE ME PA WY MD AK NH CT NJ MA VT NY Teacher Salaries Per Pupil By State $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,227 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Source: National Education Association (2018 Estimate)

98 42.0 MILLION

99 NEVADA S DEPENDENCE ON TOURISM 450,100 $18.8B $67.6B 37.5% $1.8B 25.8% Total Jobs Supported Total Wage & Salary Payments Supported Total Economic Output Share of States General Fund Revenue Generated Industry- Specific Fees & Taxes Collected Leisure & Hospitality Share of Total Establishmentbased Employment

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101 Population by Generation United States 26.6% 22.6% 20.2% 22.1% 8.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Silent Generation Baby Boom Generation Generation X Millennials Generation Z

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103 Moscone Convention Center Washington State Convention Center Miami Beach Convention Center Sacramento Convention Center Georgia World Congress Center

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