Houston Economic Outlook. Patrick Jankowski
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1 Houston Economic Outlook Patrick Jankowski
2
3 Follow me on
4 May 22 10:30 a.m. Hilton Post Oak
5 It s not Christmas but... 5
6 It s not Christmas but... Population Estimates Revised Employment Data 6
7 10 Most Populous Metro Areas Rank Metro Area Population as of 7/1/16 Change since 7/1/15 1 New York 20,153,634 35,571 2 Los Angeles 13,310,447 41,619 3 Chicago 9,512,999 (19,570) 4 Dallas-Fort Worth 7,233, ,435 5 Houston 6,772, ,005 6 Washington, D.C. 6,131,977 53,508 7 Philadelphia 6,070,500 8,197 8 Miami 6,066,387 64,670 9 Atlanta 5,789,700 90, Boston 4,794,447 27,692 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 7
8 Components of Growth, 7/15 7/16 Births 102,152 Deaths -40,536 Natural Increase 61,616 Net International 1 35,000 Net Domestic +28,090 Net In-Migration 63,090 Total 2 125,005 1 Includes U.S. and foreign-born populations. 2 Does not sum due to rounding and other effects. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 8
9 Components of Growth, 7/15 7/16 Births 102,152 Deaths -40,536 Net Natural Increase 61,616 In-Migration International 35,000 Domestic 28,090 In-Migration 63,090 Total 2 125,005 1 Includes U.S. and foreign-born populations. 2 Does not sum due to rounding and other effects. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 9
10 Components of Growth, 7/15 7/16 Births 102,152 Deaths -40,536 Natural Increase 61,616 In-Migration International 35,000 Domestic 28,090 In-Migration 63,090 Total 2 125,005 1 Includes U.S. and foreign-born populations. 2 Does not sum due to rounding and other effects. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 10
11 Long-Term Growth, 7/10 7/16 Metro Area Net Growth Houston 851,971 Dallas-Fort Worth 807,082 New York 587,163 Atlanta 502,975 Miami 500,089 Washington 495,561 Los Angeles 481,486 Boston 241,852 Philadelphia 104,838 Chicago 51,449 Current Metro Populations Baton Rouge, LA = 835,175 New Haven, CT = 856,875 11
12 Components of Growth, 7/10 7/16 Metro Area Net Migration Total International Domestic Houston 476, , ,239 Dallas-Fort Worth 444, , ,468 New York -53, , ,616 Atlanta 257, , ,366 Miami 374, ,468-6,762 Washington 199, ,540-46,264 Los Angeles -57, , ,990 Boston 145, ,201-36,483 Philadelphia -4, , ,868 Chicago -260, , ,167 12
13 Components of Growth, 7/10 7/16 Metro Area Net Change Vital Events Net Migration Houston 851, , ,857 Dallas-Fort Worth 807, , ,944 New York 587, ,717-53,912 Atlanta 502, , ,589 Miami 500, , ,706 Washington 495, , ,276 Los Angeles 481, ,435-57,111 Boston 241, , ,718 Philadelphia 104, ,420-4,729 Chicago 51, , ,662 Vital Events = Births minus Deaths 13
14 Payroll Employment 14
15 Houston Job Growth, Dec Dec (000s) Source: Texas Workforce Commission '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
16 Houston Job Growth, Dec Dec (000s) Source: Texas Workforce Commission '14 '15 '16
17 Energy Losses Sector Jobs Lost Dec 14 Dec 16 Exploration & Production -11, % Oil Field Services -19, Fabricated Metal Products -18, Machinery Manufacturing 20, Engineering -10, Total Losses -81, % Source: Texas Workforce Commission % 17
18 Non-Energy Gains Sector Jobs Gained Dec 14 Dec 16 Leisure & Hospitality 25, % Health Care 23, Public Education (state & local) 17, Retail Trade 10, Financial Activities 6, Total Gains +82,700 Source: Texas Workforce Commission % 18
19 Jobs (000s) Metro Houston Employment Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 12-Month Running Totals Energy Jobs Total Jobs Non-Energy Jobs 19
20 Biggest Winners and Losers Average Annual Wage Winners $ Wages Leisure & Hospitality $22,800 Health Care 54,800 Public Education (state & local) 47,800 Retail Trade 32,400 Financial Activities 89,100 Losers $ Wages Exploration & Production $192,000 Oil Field Services 121,000 Fabricated Metal Products 71,700 Machinery Manufacturing 95,524 Engineering 106,000 Source: Texas Workforce Commission 20
21 $ Billions Salaries & Wages Paid to Houston Workers $200 4-Qtr Moving Total, 06 Constant $ $188.4 $186.7 $175 $150 $125 $100 Q1/10 Q1/11 Q1/12 Q1/13 Q1/14 Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/17 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
22 The worst is over. 22
23 $ Per Barrel NYMEX WTI Spot Price Feb 11, 2016 $26.19/barrel Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15 Dec '15 Jun '16 Dec '16 Jun '17 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 23
24 Working Rigs U.S. Rig Count 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 May 27, Rigs Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15 Dec '15 Jun '16 Dec '16 Jun '17 Source: Baker Hughes 24
25 Purchasing Managers Index 70 Above 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = Contraction '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: Institute for Supply Management- Houston 25
26 Jobs, 000s Regional Employment, Net Change Month Running Totals August ,800 jobs 20 0 '14 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '15 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '16 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '17 Mar May -20 Source: Texas Workforce Commission
27 Jobs, 000s Regional Employment, Net Change Month Running Totals '14 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '15 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '16 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '17-20 Source: Texas Workforce Commission
28 Three sectors to cut jobs in
29 Lost Money Earned a Profit 29
30 Energy Still restructuring No hiring when losing money - 3,500 jobs 30
31 $ Billions Construction Starts, Metro Area Month Moving Total Source: Dodge Data and Analytics 31
32 $ Billions Construction Starts, Metro Area Month Moving Total Source: Dodge Data and Analytics 32
33 Construction Employment Petrochem Office Industrial Residential Health care Government - 16,000 jobs 33
34 Information Long-term decline continues jobs 34
35 Where will job growth come from? 35
36 Thousands Annual Change, Houston MSA Population '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 36
37 U.S. Gross Domestic Product % Change from Preceding Quarter* Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis * seasonally and inflation adjusted 37
38 U.S. Employment 400 Jobs Added (000s) Jan '14 Apr '14 Jul '14 Oct '14 Jan '15 Apr '15 Jul '15 Oct '15 Jan '16 Apr '16 Jul '16 Oct '16 Jan '17 Apr '17 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 38
39 Global Growth Forecasts Growth Forecasts, Year-Over-Year Percent Change Global Economy 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% Advanced Economies United States Eurozone United Kingdom Japan Korea Developing Economies China India Mexico Brazil Source: Wells Fargo Securities 39
40 Houston s Foreign Trade 06 '16 Exports, $58.1 Billion 36% Imports $69.8 Billion 43% Imports $104.1 Billion 64% Exports $93.0 Billion 57% 40
41 Health Care 41
42 Houston Health Care Employment 350 Jobs, 000s ' '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: Texas Workforce Commission 42
43 Health Care as % of Total Employment '90 ' Philadelphia New York Minneapolis Los Angeles Phoenix Dallas HOUSTON Atanta Washington Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 43
44 Health Care + 9,800 Jobs 44
45 Hotels, Restaurants and Bars 45
46 Houston Area Bars and Restaurants 7,184 7,464 8,023 8,082 8,353 8,677 8,950 9,342 9,619 9,939 10,217 10,627 Q2/05 Q2/06 Q2/07 Q2/08 Q2/09 Q2/10 Q2/11 Q2/12 Q2/13 Q2/14 Q2/15 Q2/16 Source: Texas Workforce Commission 46
47 Hotels, Restaurants and Bars + 8,700 Jobs 47
48 Government 48
49 Government Employment, 000s Metro Employment Government Employment Metro Population Total Employment, 000,000s '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 ' Source: Texas Workforce Commission 49
50 Government + 6,200 jobs 50
51 Retail 51
52 Metro Retail Employment Annual Change, 000s '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Source: U.S. Bureau Labor Statistics 52
53 Retail + 4,500 Jobs 53
54 Manufacturing 54
55 Local Chemical Plant Completions $22.7 Value, Billions $8.3 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 $2.0 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 Source: Institute for Regional Forecasting 55
56 Manufacturing + 3,000 Jobs 56
57 17 Metro Employment Forecast 9,800 8,700 6,200 4,900 4,500 Construction -16,000 Energy -3,500 Information ,000 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,100 1,100 1,100 1,000 57
58 17 Metro Employment Forecast + 29,700 Jobs 58
59 Historic Job Growth December to December, (000s) '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 ' Source: Texas Workforce Commission
60 Rules of Thumb, Guestimates and Theorems 60
61 The Yahtzee Rule for Measuring Houston Growth 61
62 Houston wins when we roll sixes. 62
63 Houston wins when we roll sixes. $60 oil 63
64 Houston wins when we roll sixes. $60 oil 60,000 jobs 64
65 Houston wins when we roll sixes. $60 oil 60,000 jobs 60,000 relocations 65
66 Houston wins when we roll sixes. $60 oil 60,000 jobs 60,000 relocations 60 MPH 66
67 Thank you 67
68 Houston Economic Outlook Patrick Jankowski
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