The Outlook for U.S. Manufacturing
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1 The Outlook for U.S. Manufacturing Economic Forecasting Conference J. Mack Robinson College of Business Georgia State University Atlanta, GA November 15, 2006 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
2 Overall performance
3 Manufacturing employment decreased by 15,000 jobs over the past twelve months Manufacturing employment percent Percent change from year ago Monthly change (saar) '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
4 Manufacturing workers have suffered steep employment declines over the past several years Manufacturing production workers Trough = Upper and low er bounds around GDP troughs Current cycle Quarters away from trough of real GDP Late expansion and recession Recovery or expansion
5 When changes in nonfarm employment are considered, the most recent manufacturing employment downturn is not unprecedented Manufacturing employment share percent change from year ago '52 '57 '62 '67 '72 '77 '82 '87 '92 '97 '02
6 Manufacturing job losses are geographically wide-spread and do not seem to be related to concentration of manufacturing employment Manufacturing employment percentage of total employment in manufacturing in 2002 AK NV AK percentage of total NV WV ID NE NV UT CT TNemployment AL in manufacturing NM UT UT IA percentage of SD SD AR IN HI HI LA SD ID IDME in 2003 total MT NE MO MN MT FL DE KY OH WI HI VA OR TN SC 0 WY 5 OR 10 IA MSAL NM LA IA 15 employment in 20 OK KS WY NY GA AR WY CO CA TX TX NHTN IN MT MD MN SC OH MI AZ MO PA KY WI FL AZ FL AZTX NJ MO IL KY NJ WI VA CO NCMI IN WAGAGA CT AL 0 AK 5 WA 10 MN PA RI CA WA OH MD NY IL NC MS NM MA DE VA MA KS AR CO VT NH NY MD OR IL KS SC NJ OK CA ME RI MS MI OK MA VT NH NC LAWV CT VTME PA NE RI DE WV size of bubble is determined by the percent change in in manufacturing em ploym ent manufacturing in 2004 size of bubble is determined by the number of manufacturing workers in 2002 number of manufacturing workers in
7 Manufacturing output has been rising since the fall of 2003 Industrial output for manufacturing percent Monthly change (saar) Percent change from year ago '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
8 Manufacturing output has expanded at a slower pace than previous cycles Industrial production Trough = Upper and low er bounds around GDP trough Current cycle Quarters away from trough of real GDP Late expansion and recession Recovery or expansion
9 However, productivity within the manufacturing sector has grown at a faster rate than during any previous expansion Productivity - manufacturing sector Trough = Upper and low er bounds around GDP troughs Current cycle Quarters away from trough of real GDP Late expansion and recession Recovery or expansion
10 Manufacturing output in the United States has never been higher Industrial production - manufacturing Index 2002= '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
11 Manufacturing capacity utilization has been improving since June 2003 Capacity utilization - manufacturing percent '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
12 New orders and shipments for capital goods have been doing very well Nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft and parts Billions of dollars (SA) Mfgs' New Orders Mfgs' Shipments '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
13 While more cyclical, profits in manufacturing have out-performed returns in nonfinancial corporate businesses Profits - as a percent of value added percent manufacturing nonfinancial corporate business '55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05
14 Industry performance
15 Real oil prices are well above levels of the past twenty years Real West Texas Intermediate oil price real dollars per barrel (2005 dollars) '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05
16 This has translated into a 75% increase in mining and oil and gas field machinery output over the past three years Industrial output for mining and oil and gas field machinery Index: 2002= '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
17 Capacity utilization for the machinery sector rose to the highest rate in over twenty-five years Capacity utilization: machinery percent '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
18 The Caterpillar 797B costs over $4,000,000
19 Construction equipment production has improved markedly Industrial output for construction equipment percent change from year ago '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
20 Heavy-duty truck order books for 2006 are full, in anticipation of EPA regulatory changes that will take effect on January 1, 2007 Net orders per day - Heavy-duty trucks thousands of units '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
21 Aerospace production remains robust Industrial output for aerospace products and parts percent change from year ago '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
22 The high-tech sector s output growth has been at a solid rate Industrial output for computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors Percent change from year ago '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
23 Steel industry growth has been slowing from extremely high rates Industrial output for iron and steel percent change from year ago '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
24 New vehicle prices have been under pressure since 1997 Price changes - new vehicles percent 12 Percent change from year ago Monthly change (saar) '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '
25 Light vehicle sales have shown no growth for the past eight years Light Vehicle Sales millions of units saar '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '
26 Passenger car sales have been moving higher Passenger car and light truck sales millions of units saar Light trucks Passenger cars '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
27 Light truck market share has been falling since August 2004 Light truck share of the light vehicle market percent '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
28 While passenger car production has been relatively stable, light truck production has been falling Passenger car and light truck production millions of units saar Light trucks Passenger cars '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
29 GM and Ford produce some of the largest vehicles
30 Since 1999, General Motors sales declined by nearly a million vehicles Vehicle sales - General Motors millions of units '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
31 Ford s sales declined by nearly 1.3 million vehicles Vehicle sales - Ford millions of units '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
32 DaimlerChryler s sales fell by nearly half a million vehicles Vehicle sales - DaimlerChrysler millions of units '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
33 So with losses approaching 3 million units, the Big-Three s market share has deteriorated Big-Three share of light vehicle sales percent '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '
34 So with sales slipping for the Big-Three, foreign nameplate models have risen by over two million units Vehicle sales - foreign nameplates millions of units '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
35 However new domestic production rose by over 900,000 vehicles Vehicle sales - foreign transplants millions of units '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
36 Buy American 2005 Ford Mustang 2005 Toyota Sienna 65% U.S. and Canadian parts 90% U.S. and Canadian parts
37 Domestic content for the Big Three has been declining, while domestic content for the new domestics has been rising Average percentage of auto parts made in the U.S. and Canada for percent cars sold in North America GM Ford DaimlerChrysler Toyota Honda Nissan
38 Light vehicle production has been declining at a more moderate pace than focusing on Big-Three losses would suggest Light vehicle production millions of units saar '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
39 Regional analysis
40 Construction and nondurable manufacturing have the largest employment concentration in the Southeast Southeast employment distribution (2004) 100 = national average share Farm Natural resources and mining Construction Manufacturing Manufacturing - durable Manufacturing - nondurable Trade transportation and utilities Information Financial activities Professional & business services Educational & health Services Leisure and hospitality Other services Government
41 Nondurable manufacturing and information have the largest employment concentration in Georgia Georgia employment distribution (2004) 100 = national average share Farm Natural resources and mining Construction Manufacturing Manufacturing - durable Manufacturing - nondurable Trade transportation and utilities Information Financial activities Professional & business services Educational & health Services Leisure and hospitality Other services Government
42 Georgia s employment has been doing relatively better than the nation Employment - average of July September 2006 versus same period year ago 10 United States: percent change from year ago Mining size of bubble is determined by the number of Georgia's employees in the industry Professional & business services Education & health services Other services Information 2 0 Manufacturing Government Trade, transportation & utilities Leisure & hospitality Construction Financial -2 activities -4 Georgia: percent change from year ago
43 Georgia s manufacturing has been close to the experience of the nation, doing a bit better in durables and a bit worse in nondurable Manufacturing em ploym ent - average of July Septem ber 2006 versus sam e period year ago 2 United States: percent change from year ago 1 Georgia: percent change from year ago -2 Durable Nondurable -1-2 size of bubble is determ ined by the num ber of Georgia's em ployees in the industry 2
44 Summary Manufacturing continues to expand at solid rates Most industries are doing very well The domestic nameplate automobile manufacturers are struggling The domestic nameplate supplier base are also deeply affected Outside of the Big Three the rest of the domestic automobile producers are doing well
45
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