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1 No domain left behind is Let s Encrypt democratizing encryption? M Aertsen 1, M Korzyński 2, G Moura 3 1 National Cyber Security Centre The Netherlands 2 Delft University of Technology The Netherlands 3 SIDN Labs The Netherlands ICANN58, Tech day

2 More than half of web traffic nowadays is encrypted Yet that leaves out a lot of people without HTTPS Firefox telemetry 1 Chrome telemetry plot based on Let s Encrypt stats page 2

3 Certificates are required for encryption on the web Obtaining and deploying certificates is not free Cost: purchase, deployment and renewal Complexity: request, deployment (at scale) Let s Encrypt 3 aims to make encrypted traffic ubiquitous Reducing certificate cost of purchase, renewal to zero Automation of request, issuance and deployment (ACME: protocol 4 and clients, eg Certbot 5 )

4 No domain left behind Is Let s Encrypt democratizing encryption? Research question In its first year of certificate issuance, has Let s Encrypt been successful in democratizing encryption? Approach Analyze issuance in the first year of Let s Encrypt Show adoption trend from various perspectives Analyze coverage for the lower-cost end of the market

5 Contribution We show that 98% of certificates are issued outside Alexa 1M yet issuance is not restricted to lower end of the market Let s Encrypt s growth is attributed to adoption by major players 3 hosting providers are responsible for 47% of the Let s Encrypt certified domains Issuance is dominantly for the lower-cost end of the market (shared hosting) The majority of certificates are correctly renewed after their first expiration (9 days) And find that Let s Encrypt has indeed started to democratize encryption

6 Methodology Period covered One year of Let s Encrypt certificate issuance, Sept Results based on FQDNs reduced to 2LD/3LD form eg exampleorg (2LD) or examplecouk (3LD), depending on availability per TLD registry Datasets Certificates Domain to IP mapping Organization mapping Certificate transparency Farsight DNSDB Methodology from previous work, using whois data & Maxmind GEOIP2

7 98% of certificates are issued outside Alexa 1M % of total usage of Let's Encrypt 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Alexa 1M Alexa 1k Alexa 1k Alexa 1k Sep '15 Nov '15 Jan '16 Mar '16 May '16 Jul '16 Sep '16

8 yet issuance is not restricted to lower end of market % of domains using Let's Encrypt 2% 15% 1% 5% % Alexa 1M Alexa 1k Alexa 1k Alexa 1k DNSDB Sep '15 Nov '15 Jan '16 Mar '16 May '16 Jul '16 Sep '16

9 Growth is attributed to adoption by major players 3 hosting providers are responsible for 47% of the Let s Encrypt certified domains November K 6K 127M Let's Encrypt domains organisations known domains

10 Growth is attributed to adoption by major players 3 hosting providers are responsible for 47% of the Let s Encrypt certified domains November 215 September K known domains 127M 44M known domains 25M Let's Encrypt domains Let's Encrypt domains organisations 6K organisations 66K

11 Growth is attributed to adoption by major players 3 hosting providers are responsible for 47% of the Let s Encrypt certified domains November K 6K 127M Let's Encrypt domains organisations known domains September 216

12 Issuance is dominantly for web hosting So far, no surprises % of Let's Encrypt domains 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Sep '16 Aug '16 Jul '16 Jun '16 May '16 Apr '16 Mar '16 Feb '16 Jan '16 Dec '15 Nov '15 Oct '15 Sep '15 unknown cdn isp hosting other parking edu ddos-protection gov

13 Over 9% of domains in hosting are on shared hosting Issuance is dominantly for the lower-cost end of the market % of LE domains in hosting 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Sep '16 Aug '16 Jul '16 Jun '16 May '16 Apr '16 Mar '16 Feb '16 Jan '16 Dec '15 Nov '15 Oct '15 Sep '15 shared hosting non-shared hosting

14 Let s Encrypt certificates are valid for 9 days The majority of certificates are correctly renewed after their first expiration Fraction of FQDN coverage days since initial issuance of certificate continuous gap 1 week

15 Summary We find that Let s Encrypt has indeed started to democratize encryption Certificate issuance in the first year of Let s Encrypt used widely, dominated by the low-cost share of the market (shared hosting) which would be unlikely to deploy the complex and costly X59 certificates before enables big hosting providers to issue and deploy certificates for their customers in bulk thus quickly and automatically enable encryption across a large number of domains eg 47% of Let s Encrypt certified domains are hosted at three large hosting companies (Sept 216) 7% of the Let s Encrypt certified domains remain active after the first issuance of the certificate 6 6 Let s Encrypt certificates expire after three months

16 In conclusion Future work extend measurement period issued versus deployed active scans on shared hosting require prior knowledge of domains served (SNI) use by malicious actors Contact details Maarten Aertsen Maciej Korzyński Giovane Moura For more information, including related work & references, please see arxiv: (pending publication)

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18 Absolute and relative growth Time series for FQDNs, domains, and DNSDB ratio unique certified domains 14M 12M 1M 8M 6M 4M 2M FQDNs (absolute) domains (absolute) domains (relative) 1% 1% Sep '15 Nov '15 Jan '16 Mar '16 May '16 Jul '16 Sep '16 1% 1% % of DNSDB

No domain left behind:

No domain left behind: No domain left behind: is Let s Encrypt democratizing encryption? Maarten Aertsen 1, Maciej Korczyński 2, Giovane C. M. Moura 3, Samaneh Tajalizadehkhoob 2, Jan van den Berg 2 1 National Cyber Security

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