GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK Dr. Shawn Qu Charmain and CEO

Transcription

1 GLOBAL SOLAR OUTLOOK Dr. Shawn Qu Charmain and CEO Solar Power International, Las Vegas September 14, 2016 CSIQ NASDAQ Listed

2 Company Overview! Founded in Ontario, 2001! Listed on NASDAQ (CSIQ) in 2006! Over 8,000 employees globally! Presence in 18 countries / territories! > 16 GW of solar modules shipped cumulatively! > 1.8 GWp solar power plants developed, built and connected (incl. Recurrent)! Top 2 solar company by MW shipped, revenue and profits in 2015 Global Footprint and Brand Sales office Manufacturing facility Total Solu4ons contracted / late stage projects Highlights Solar Power Plants Built and Connected! 2015 Revenue: $3.5 Billion 1,196.1! 2015 Shipments: 4.7 GW! 2015 Net Income: $172 Million! 2016 Shipment Guidance: GW

3 Macro Factors: Long Rates Trending Lower Lower interests rates reduce the cost of solar financing & the yield expectation of investors, leading to reduced capital costs of solar assets and a positive climate for solar developers 10 Interest Rates since % 4 2 USD Euro JPY Fed Fund Rate 0 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16-2 Source: Bloomberg, Canadian Solar Analysis 3

4 Macro Factors: Energy Prices have Bottomed As base energy prices stabilize, resulting in boosted sentiment of energy investors Crude Oil Futures since 1990 WTI Brent '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 18 Natural Gas Futures since '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 1,000,000 Barrels DOE Crude Oil Total Inventory since ,000,000 Barrels DOE World Crude Oil ProducIon since '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Source: Bloomberg, Canadian Solar Analysis 65 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 4

5 Global Opportunities! Mature markets: grid-parity and evolving storage solutions will drive growth of distributed generation and self consumption! Emerging markets: utility-scale business and hybrid micro-grids will drive growth and create high margin opportunities for IPPs Global PV Demand in Regional Markets : 317 GW MEA 6% Latin America 6% Others 7% China 27% Mature Japan U.S. Mature Europe GW 49% India 7% China Emerging Europe Europe 13% U.S. 14% Japan 20% Emerging India GW 51% Source: IHS, Canadian Solar Analysis 5

6 Decreasing Manufacturing Costs Polysilicon/Wafer Cell Module Total Q $0.76/W $0.23/W $0.33/W $1.32/W 1 Q $0.18/W $0.08/W $0.13/W $0.39/W 1 Lower polysilicon cost Lower polysilicon usage leveraging diamond wiresaw Decrease raw material usage and purchase costs Increase throughput Higher efficiency Reduce bill of material (BOM) cost Q $0.11/W $0.06/W $0.12/W $0.29/W 2 Q $0.09/W $0.06/W $0.10/W $0.25/W 2 Source: Company information 1. Blended manufacturing cost in China 2. Based on internal ingot, wafer, cell and module manufacturing in China 6

7 Solar Modules Increasingly Efficient and Powerful Technological innovations will lead to increasingly powerful and efficient solar modules, meaning more green power with the same footprint and infrastructure Technological Innovations:! CSI s Black Si nano-texturing technology paves the way for diamond-wire sawing in multicrystalline wafer production. 60-Cell Module! Black Si will be the industry s mainstream technology by ~2018.! Mono PERC cell mass production efficiency projected to be above 22.5% by 2020.! Design and process innovations will enable 72-cell module wattage to exceed 390W by 2020, resulting in a significant reduction in LCOE. 72-Cell Module 7

8 US Solar Outlook The economics for US solar are ideal; the problems currently facing the US solar industry are all policy-related! U.S market since Q1 2015:! 51% of all new electric generating capacity in U.S. came from solar! The residential and utility PV market segments each added more capacity than the natural gas industry brought on-line! Nearly 209K Americans work in the solar, with that number projected to double by 2020.! Solar installation costs have dropped by more than 70%! Policy challenges! Net metering challenge in several states including Nevada and Arizona! The AD/CVD trade barrier raises the module price >30%! Trade barrier makes conducting business difficult and hurt US jobs 8

9 THANK YOU! September