Is the U.S. Losing Its Manufacturing Base?

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1 Is the U.S. Losing Its Manufacturing Base? Rocky Mountain Economic Summit Afton, WY July 10, 2014 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

2 2 The Setup

3 Manufacturing output peaked in December 2007 and fell 20.8% over the following 18 months Index 2007 = Industrial production manufacturing 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 3

4 Manufacturing capacity utilization collapsed to the lowest rate in 70 years Capacity utilization manufacturing percent '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 4

5 Job declines in the manufacturing sector were significant, with over 2.0 million jobs lost over that same period Manufacturing employment percent Percent change from a year earlier Quarterly change (saar) 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 5

6 Is the U.S. Losing Its Manufacturing Base? 6

7 Manufacturing employment as a share of national employment has been declining for over 60 years Manufacturing employment as a share of total nonfarm employment percent '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 7

8 The number of jobs in manufacturing has been relatively stable over this period, edging lower on average by -0.3% per year since 1947 Manufacturing employment millions '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 8

9 Not to make a mountain out of a molehill, but manufacturing employment was increasing up until 1979 and has been moving lower over the past 30 years Manufacturing employment millions % 1.3% '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 9

10 However, service sector employment has grown more than fourfold over this period, averaging growth of 2.3% per year since 1947 Employment millions service manufacturing '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 10

11 While manufacturing employment has been edging lower over the past 63 years, manufacturing output increased by 3.2% per year Manufacturing output Index 2007= '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 11

12 This translated into an almost 600 percent increase in manufacturing output over this time period Manufacturing Index 2007= output left scale millions employment right scale '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '

13 The increase in output can be attributed to strong productivity growth experienced by the manufacturing sector Manufacturing productivity Index 1950= '60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 13

14 What took 1,000 workers to produce in 1950 takes 167 workers today Manufacturing sector: Number of workers needed to do the work of 1,000 workers in 1950 Number of workers 1, ,

15 Manufacturing productivity has been growing faster over the past 40 years Productivity Average annual percent change 5 4 Nonfa rm business Ma nufacturing s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

16 The divergence in productivity appears to have occurred around the mid-1970s Productivity Index 1975= manufacturing nonfarm business '60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 16

17 This divergence is especially apparent in durable manufacturing Index 1975= Productivity durable manufacturing nondurable manufacturing '60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 17

18 Strong productivity growth had allowed the manufacturing sector to grow faster than the overall economy Output Index 1947= industrial production manufacturing real GDP '52 '57 '62 '67 '72 '77 '82 '87 '92 '97 '02 '07 '12 18

19 However, lower relative prices in the manufacturing sector has lead to manufacturing comprising a smaller share of GDP over time Manufacturing share of GDP percent '52 '57 '62 '67 '72 '77 '82 '87 '92 '97 '02 '07 '12 19

20 However, the US still makes over 70% of what it consumes % of US manufactured goods consumed in by source Made in: China Other lowcost countries 20 Rest of the World 0 Food and Beverages Petroleum and Coal Fabricated ChemicalsPrimary metal Transportation goods Machinery Computers Apparel, Wood Products metals Plastics and Rubber Furniture Textiles and Fabrics & electronicsfootwear, & Paper Products Glass, Stone, and Minerals Miscellaneous accessories Appliances & Electrical equipment Value of US manufactured goods consumed by category (Billion USD) Net US 20 From the Boston Consulting Group

21 How profitable is manufacturing? 21

22 While more cyclical, profits in manufacturing have out-performed returns in nonfinancial corporate businesses Profits as a percentof value added percent manufacturing nonfinancial corporate business 1950 '55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 22

23 The Manufacturing Sector Continues to Re-invent Itself 23

24 Over the last twenty years the fastest growing sector, not surprisingly, has been computer and electronic components Industrial output: Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Nonmetallic Mineral Products Primary Metals Fabricated Metal Products Machinery Computer and Electronic Components Electrical Eqpt, Appliances & Components Motor Vehicles and Parts Aerospace & Miscellaneous Transport Equip Furniture and Related Products Miscellaneous Durable Goods Nondurable Manufacturing Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Textile and Product Mills Apparel and Leather Goods Paper Printing and Related Support Activities Chemicals Petroleum and Coal Products Plastics and Rubber Products Other Manufacturing percent change (annual rate)

25 There has been a large number of industrial sectors that have risen and fallen over the past twenty years Industrial output: Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Nonmetallic Mineral Products Primary Metals Fabricated Metal Products Machinery Electrical Eqpt, Appliances & Components Motor Vehicles and Parts Aerospace & Miscellaneous Transport Equip Furniture and Related Products Miscellaneous Durable Goods Nondurable Manufacturing Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Textile and Product Mills Apparel and Leather Goods Paper Printing and Related Support Activities Chemicals Petroleum and Coal Products Plastics and Rubber Products Other Manufacturing percent change (annual rate)

26 The collapse in manufacturing experienced in was closely linked with the economic recession 26

27 Declines in manufacturing output were broad-based during the Great Recession especially in vehicle and primary metals manufacturing Industrial output: December 2007 June 2009 Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Nonmetallic Mineral Products Primary Metals Fabricated Metal Products Machinery Computer and Electronic Components Electrical Eqpt, Appliances & Components Motor Vehicles and Parts Aerospace & Miscellaneous Transport Equip Furniture and Related Products Miscellaneous Durable Goods Nondurable Manufacturing Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Textile and Product Mills Apparel and Leather Goods Paper Printing and Related Support Activities Chemicals Petroleum and Coal Products Plastics and Rubber Products Other Manufacturing percent change

28 The recovery has also been broad-based with motor vehicles and primary metals manufacturing leading the way Industrial output: June 2009 May 2014 Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Nonmetallic Mineral Products Primary Metals Fabricated Metal Products Machinery Computer and Electronic Components Electrical Eqpt, Appliances & Components Motor Vehicles and Parts Aerospace & Miscellaneous Transport Equip Furniture and Related Products Miscellaneous Durable Goods Nondurable Manufacturing Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Textile and Product Mills Apparel and Leather Goods Paper Printing and Related Support Activities Chemicals Petroleum and Coal Products Plastics and Rubber Products Other Manufacturing percent change

29 Manufacturing workers have suffered steep employment declines over the current cycle trough = Manufacturing employment upper and lower bounds around GDP troughs current cycle Quarters away from trough of real GDP 29

30 But the overall economy s employment growth also struggled trough = Total nonfarm employees upper and lower bounds around GDP troughs current cycle Quarters away from trough of real GDP 30

31 When changes in nonfarm employment are considered, the most recent manufacturing employment downturn is not unprecedented Manufacturing employment share percent '52 '57 '62 '67 '72 '77 '82 '87 '92 '97 '02 '07 '12 31

32 The financial crisis and its aftermath has hampered the current economic expansion Real GDP trough = upper and lower bounds around GDP troughs current cycle Quarters away from trough of real GDP 32

33 The recovery in manufacturing output is in-line with past industrial recoveries trough = Industrial production manufacturing upper and lower bounds around GDP troughs current cycle Quarters away from trough of real GDP 33

34 Productivity in the overall economy has grown at a rate below the low-end of previous expansions trough = Productivity nonfarm business upper and lower bounds around GDP troughs current cycle Quarters away from trough of real GDP 34

35 However, productivity within the manufacturing sector has grown at a somewhat faster pace trough = Productivity manufacturing upper and lower bounds around GDP troughs current cycle Quarters away from trough of real GDP 35

36 36 Manufacturing employment losses have occurred across numerous countries among 20 big economies, 22 million jobs were lost

37 Is the U.S. positioned to continue its strong productivity gains? 37

38 U.S. maintaining its commitment to research and development Research and developmentexpenditures as a share of GDP percent '58 '63 '68 '73 '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 38

39 The vast majority of U.S. research and development is being privately funded Share of research and developmentthat is privately funded percent '58 '63 '68 '73 '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 39

40 40 Lessons from the farm sector

41 We are producing more in our farm sector than at any time in our history Real gross value added: farm business Billions of chained 2005 dollars '57 '67 '77 '87 '97 '07 41

42 And we are accomplished this remarkable feat with less than 2.0% of our employment devoted to farming Share of total employment percent services manufacturing agriculture

43 43 Trade with China

44 China has risen to number one in terms of U.S. imports, representing 19.4% of all imports in 2013 Imports (customs value) billions of dollars 2,500 2,000 1,500 Korea rest of imports UK 1,000 Germany Japan Mexico 500 Canada '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 China 44

45 While China has risen to be our third largest export country, it represents only 7.7% of U.S. exports Exports (f.a.s.) billions of dollars 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Germany Korea rest of exports UK Japan China Mexico '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 Canada 45

46 This difference has led to China having the largest trade deficit with the U.S. Trade balance (customs value) billions of dollars Canada UK Korea rest of trade deficit 1975 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 China Japan Germany Mexico 46

47 China has certainly increased the amount of goods flowing into the U.S. Imports (customs value) Index 1990=100 3,000 2,500 China 2,000 1,500 1, Mexico rest of imports Canada Germany Korea UK Japan 1975 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 47

48 They have also represented the largest gain for exports from the U.S. Exports (f.a.s.) Index 1990=100 3,000 2,500 China 2,000 1,500 1, Mexico rest of imports Canada 0 Germany Korea 1975 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 UK Japan 48

49 While China has increased its share of imports to the U.S., the Pacific Rim as a whole has had a declining share since the mid-90s Share of U.S. imports percent Pacific Rim Pacific Rim excluding China China '78 '82 '86 '90 '94 '98 '02 '06 '10 49

50 U.S. share of world manufacturing steady for last 40 years Manufacturing value added, % of world % 46% Rest of World 60 China 15% Japan US 17% 25%...and remains the biggest in the world in mfg value add by a sizeable margin 15% 24% From the Boston Consulting Group

51 U.S. share of world manufacturing steady for last 40 years Manufacturing value added, % of world % 46% Rest of World 60 China 15% Japan US 17% 25%...and remains the biggest in the world in mfg value add by a sizeable margin 15% 24% From the Boston Consulting Group

52 52 Energy

53 Adjusted for inflation, current oil prices are below the levels that existed thirty years ago dollars per barrel, 2013 dollars Real West Texas Intermediate oil price 1970 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 53

54 Natural gas prices are quite low dollars per mmbtu, 2013 dollars Real natural gas price 1994 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 54

55 55 Due to technology that now allows access to reserves that have been known for quite a few years

56 Between 1994 and 2005 the natural gas to oil price ratio averaged 13.4% - year-to-date it has averaged 4.8% in 2014 percent (dollars per mmbtu/dollars per barrel West Texas intermediate) Natural gas price to oil price ratio 1994 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 56

57 Implication: The U.S. is one of the world's lowest-cost countries for manufacturing Major exporting nation average manufacturing cost structures relative to U.S. (2015 projections) Manufacturing cost index (U.S. = 100) US = U.S. Germany France Italy United Kingdom Japan China 57 Labor (productivity-adjusted) Electricity Natural Gas From the Boston Consulting Group Other

58 58 The Current Expansion

59 Beginning in July 2009, manufacturing output in the United States has been increasing at a 4.8% annualized rate and as of May 2014 it finally regained all the output lost during the Great Recession Index 2007 = Industrial production manufacturing 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 59

60 Manufacturing capacity utilization has been rising since June 2009 Capacity utilization manufacturing percent '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 60

61 And while manufacturing jobs have been rising, they have only recovered 29.1% of the jobs lost during the downturn Manufacturing employment percent Percent change from a year earlier Percent change from a year earlier Quarterly change (saar) 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 61

62 Summary Manufacturing output is in the process of recovering its losses The success of manufacturing has been driven by productivity Manufacturing employment has shown little change over the past 70 years with a steady decline over the past 30 years The most recent decline in manufacturing was cyclical, not structural Profits in manufacturing have outperformed profits for the rest of the nation The trends that have dominated manufacturing for the past 70 years are suggestive of the future for U.S. manufacturing: ever increasing output with employment representing a smaller share of total employment 62

63 Chicago Fed Letter - June

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