Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist

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1 Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist

2 Hurricanes

3 U.S. Jobs Jobs (Millions) Seasonally Adjusted % Prior 12 Months 2.05 Million Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months 125 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

4 U.S. Leisure & Hospitality Jobs The Blood Pressure Test of the U.S. Economy Recession Millions of Jobs Seasonally-Adjusted % Past 12 Months '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '

5 U.S. Average Hourly Earnings $US Per Hour $27 $26 Up 2.5 Percent in Past 12-Months To $26.63 Per Hour $25 $24 $23 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

6 Job Growth Rates - 12 Months Ending November 2017 Utah 2.85% Arizona 1.51% Nebraska 0.99% Texas 2.73% Iowa 1.45% Virginia 0.86% Nevada 2.66% Wisconsin 1.38% Montana 0.83% Florida 2.30% Kentucky 1.33% Hawaii 0.75% Idaho 2.30% New Hampshire 1.29% Ohio 0.70% Maryland 2.23% New York 1.24% Indiana 0.68% South Carolina 2.17% New Mexico 1.22% Louisiana 0.45% Washington 2.10% Tennessee 1.21% Illinois 0.43% Oregon 1.96% Oklahoma 1.16% North Dakota 0.37% Georgia 1.92% Minnesota 1.15% Maine 0.34% Massachusetts 1.82% Rhode Island 1.12% South Dakota 0.23% California 1.73% Mississippi 1.06% Kansas 0.21% Colorado 1.73% Michigan 1.06% Delaware 0.07% Alabama 1.68% Pennsylvania 1.06% Connecticut -0.04% Arkansas 1.67% Missouri 1.05% Wyoming -0.61% North Carolina 1.63% New Jersey 1.02% Alaska -0.76% Vermont 1.60% Dist of Columbia 1.01% West Virginia -0.84%

7 220,000 1 st Time Applicants Unemployment Benefits Week Ending October

8 1.89 Million Total People on Unemployment Benefits Week Ending October

9 Million Number of Fewer People With Part-Time Jobs That Want Full-Time Jobs YOY Now 4.753M

10 Dallas-Plano-Irving Jobs Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2, Percent Prior 12 Months 71,400 Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

11 Percent of 13.6% U.S. Population Aged 25-34

12 Percent of 30% Homebuyers Prior Year Aged 25-34

13 130,000+ Millennial Poll Would You Rather? 47% Have an Easy Job Working for Someone Else 53% Work for Yourself But Work Incredibly Hard 9GAG + GfK Research

14 130,000+ Millennial Poll Would You Rather? 29% Commit to a Guaranteed Job for Next 3 Years 71% Commit to a Start-Up Opportunity 9GAG + GfK Research

15 130,000+ Millennial Poll Would You Rather? 95% Gain 10 Friends in Real Life 5% Gain 10,000 Friends on Instagram-Twitter 9GAG + GfK Research

16 130,000+ Millennial Poll Would You Rather? 33% Lose the Right to Vote 67% Lose the Right to Say Anything on Social Media 9GAG + GfK Research

17 130,000+ Millennial Poll Would You Rather? 43% Give Up Sex 57% Give Up the Internet 9GAG + GfK Research

18 U.S. Existing Home Sales & Median Prices Sales Trailing 12 Months Median Price $ Thousands $275 $250 $225 $200 Home Sales 12-Months Millions $175 '14 '15 '16 '17 Median Price Homes Sales 4.8

19 Dallas-Plano-Irving Home Sales & Median Prices Sales Trailing 12 Months Median Price $ Thousands Home Sales 12-Months $300 $275 $250 $225 $200 $ '15 '16 '17 Median Price Homes Sales 67,250 64,750 62,250 59,750 57,250

20 MegaThemes 2018 More Jobs Than Ever in History Tax Reform Implications MID SALT Entry Level Homebuyers Strong Rising Interest Rates Commercial Sales Cooling - End of Cycle Strong Economy Potential!

21 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Household Debt Service as a Percent of Household Disposable Income Percent FED Board of Governors, BEA

22 U.S. Real Retail & Food Service Sales $ Billions Seasonally Adjusted $200 $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

23 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Federal Debt Total Public Debt $ Trillions St Louis Federal reserve

24 Federal Debt Interest Payments In March % Greater Than March 2016

25 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Billions Trailing 12 Months $ Percent Year-Over-Year $150 $100 $50 $0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up

26 Dallas Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Billions Trailing 12 Months $ Percent YOY $20.0 $16.0 $12.0 $8.0 $4.0 $0.0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up

27 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Billions Quarterly $ Percent Q vs Q $150 $100 $50 $0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up

28 Dallas Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 $ Billions Quarterly Percent YOY '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up

29 19 Days

30 Days to Drill & Fracture 3 Years Ago Days Now 19 Days

31 4-Jan-02 6-Dec-02 7-Nov-03 8-Oct-04 9-Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug-17 North American Drilling Rig Counts Number of Operating Rigs 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

32

33 2018 Strong Potential Economy corporate tax cut Mortgage Interest some states State Tax Deductions some states Tax Law Impacts Inflation Unraveling Quantitative Easing QE Rising Interest Rates Mid-Term Elections Cheap Energy Drives Overall US Economy

34 Twitter DrTCJ

35 Artificial Intelligence

36 Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist

Disaster Economic Impact

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