Economic Update German American Chamber of Commerce
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1 Economic Update German American Chamber of Commerce Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago October 6, 2015 Paul Traub Senior Business Economist
2 U.S. Real GDP Billions Chained $2009, % Change Q/Q at SAAR $ Billions 17,000 16,500 16,000 Q2 15 $16, ,500 15,000 Q4 07 $14, % , , , , ,500 12,000 Q % '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 ' Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1
3 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Billions Chained $2009, % Change Q/Q at SAAR $ Billions 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 Q2 15 $11, ,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 3.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2
4 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Billions Chained $2009, Index 2005 = 100 Index Q '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 PCE Durables Nondurables Services Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 3
5 Real Gross Domestic Investment Billions Chained $2009, % Change Q/Q at SAAR $ Billions 3,000 2,750 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 Q2 15 $2, % ,000 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 ' Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 4
6 Real Domestic Fixed Investment Billions Chained $2009, Index 2005 = 100 Index Q '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Fixed Investment Nonresidential Residential Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 5
7 ISM Manufacturing & Non-manufacturing PMI Composite Indexes - Greater than 50 = Expansion Index Aug Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing Source: Institute for Supply Management, FRED 6
8 New Private Housing Starts, Permits and Under Construction Thousands of Units (000) s 1,400 1,200 1,000 Starts and Permits Aug 15 1,170 1,126 (000) s 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Under Construction Aug YTD '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 ' '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 Starts Permits Source: U.S. Census Bureau 7
9 Government Consumption & Investment Billions Chained $2009, Index 2005 = 100 Index Q '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Total Federal State & Local Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 8
10 Government Investment & Consumption As a of Total GDP '47 '51 '55 '59 '63 '67 '71 '75 '79 '83 '87 '91 '95 '99 '03 '07 '11 '15 Source: Author s calculations using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis 9
11 Real Imports and Exports Billions Chained $2009, Index 2005 = 100 Index '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Net Exports Exports Imports Q $534.6 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 -$200 -$400 -$600 -$800 -$1,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 10
12 Stronger U.S. Dollar Major Currencies, Index 2000 = 100 Index Foreign Currency to U.S. Dollar Trade Weighted Index Euro to U.S. Dollar Sep 18, Stronger U.S. Dollar Stronger U.S. Dollar Sep 18, Weaker U.S. Dollar Weaker U.S. Dollar 90 '14 M M J S N '15 M M J A S Index Japanese Yen to U.S. Dollar Sep 18, 15 Stronger U.S. Dollar Weaker U.S. Dollar '14 M M J S N '15 M M J A S 90 Index '14 M M J S N '15 M M J A S Stronger U.S. Dollar Chinese Yuan to U.S. Dollar Weaker U.S. Dollar '14 M M J S N '15 M M J A Sep 18, Source: Board of Governors Federal Reserve System 11
13 China PMI Manufacturing & Industrial Production Greater than 50 = Expansion, Change Yr./Yr. Index Aug Dec '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 PMI - Manufacturing Industrial Production -5.0 Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and Haver Analytics 12
14 Global Equity Indexes FTSE All Cap US$ Index 2013 = 100 Index '13 '14 '15 Oct 1, N.A. M.E. Europe & U.K. A.P. & Japan Emerging Latin America Source: Financial Times & Haver Analytics 13
15 Global Outlook IMF Forecast for Growth (July 15 Update), % Chg. Yr./Yr Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies World 3.7 Source: IMF - July World Economic Outlook 14
16 U.S. Real GDP Blue Chip Forecast Annual Change Chained $ Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep ' Source: April 2015 Blue Chip Economic Indicators 15
17 Recession Comparisons GDP by Sector Compound Annual Growth Rate 24 Quarters following the Trough of the Recession GDP Consumption Investment Exports Imports Government Average '60 - ' Recession Source: Author s calculations using data from the BEA October 6, 2015 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 16
18 Closing the Output Gap Actual / FOMC Projected Central Tendency Growth Rate $ Billions 17,500 17,000 Q % 16,500 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Potential Actual Blue Chip Consensus 1. Projections based on full year-over-prior year average year percent change using average of the central tendency. Source: Author s calculations using data from the BEA and April Blue Chip Economic Indicators 17
19 The U.S. Consumer 18
20 Real Disposable Personal Income Change Year/Year - $ Dec % Aug % Pre-recession Average 3.1% Post-recession Average 1.7% Dec % '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 19
21 Personal Savings Rate of Personal Income - SAAR 12.0 Dec % Jul % 4.0 Post recession Average 5.6% 2.0 Pre-recession average 4.0% 0.0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 20
22 Total Consumer Credit Revolving and Non-revolving Credit as % of DPI Jul % Average 17.3% to Present Average '60 '64 '68 '72 '76 '80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 October 6, 2015 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 21
23 Personal Interest Payments As a of Disposable Personal Income Average 1.89% to Present Average 2.54% Jul % '60 '64 '68 '72 '76 '80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 October 6, 2015 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 22
24 U.S. Unemployment & Participation Rates Seasonally Adjusted Sep '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 ' Unemployment Rate Participation Rate Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics October 6, 2015 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 23
25 Household Net Worth Trillions of Dollars, Q1 80 to Q Q2 07 $65.5 Total Decline Q3 07 Q1 09 -$12.5 Q2 15 $82.8 $ '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Home Equity Financial and Other Source: Federal Reserve Z.1 Statistical Release,Table B100, Households and Nonprofit Organizations 24
26 Consumer Sentiment University of Michigan Index January Sep '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan October 6, 2015 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 25
27 Monetary Policy Employment & Inflation 26
28 Unemployment Rate & PCE Inflation Unemployed, PCE % Change Yr./Yr Unemployment 3.0 Inflation Core PCE % Aug % Aug % '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 ' '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Actual Target Annual Actual Target Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federal Reserve 27
29 U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth Monthly Change In Thousands of Jobs Thousands Sep YTD '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Monthly Change Annual Average Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics 28
30 Unemployment and Underutilization As a of Labor Force Plus Marginally Attached Dec % '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Sep % Unemployed < 15 Weeks Marginal, Discouraged Part-time for Economic Reasons Unemployed >= 15 Weeks Marginal, not Discouraged Unemployment Rate Source: Author s calculations using U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 29
31 Average Hourly Earnings & Hours Worked Total Private, All Employees % Change Y/Y and Hours, SA Jun Sep Hours % % '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Earnings (Left) Hours (Right) 33.4 Source: Author s calculations using U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 30
32 Producer Price Index By Commodity for Finished Goods, SA Change Yr./Yr '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Aug % Source: Author s calculations using U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 31
33 Inflation Expectations PCE Core Inflation Yr./Yr. & Q4/Q4 Survey of Professional Forecasters Q3 15 Forecast Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 ' Actual Expectations Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and FRB Philadelphia Q3 15 Survey 32
34 Federal Funds Rate Appropriate pace of policy firming September 17, 2015 Number June Note: Each bar denotes the number of FOMC participants who judge that, under appropriate monetary policy, the first increase in the target federal funds rate will occur in a specified calendar year. 3 September 1 Source: Board of Governors Federal Reserve System 33
35 Appropriate pace of policy firming Midpoint of target range or target level of the Fed Funds Rate Longerrun Source: Board of Governors Federal Reserve System 34
36 Implied Year-end Federal Funds Rate Based on appropriate pace of policy firming Longer-run Dec '14 Mar '15 Jun '15 Sep '15 Futures Market Note: Estimated year-end midpoint of target range or target level for Federal Funds Rate. Source: Author s calculations using data from Board of Governors Federal Reserve System 35
37 Auto Industry 36
38 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales S.A.A.R Millions of Units Millions Cash for Clunkers Aug Sep YTD Feb '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Source: Ward s Automotive and BEA 37
39 U.S. Light Vehicle Industry Millions of Units Millions Trend Blue Chip Consensus Source: Author s Calculations using Ward s Automotive data 38
40 U.S. Light Vehicle Pent-Up Demand Millions of Units Millions '80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16 Source: Author s Calculations 39
41 Light Vehicle Average Transaction Price In Thousands of Current Dollars $Thousands $32.0 $30.0 $28.0 $26.0 $24.0 $30.0 $30.5 $29.3 $28.2 $28.5 $27.7 $27.0 $25.7 $26.3 $26.1 $26.5 $25.1 $24.4 $24.7 $24.2 $24.3 CAGR 1.5% $22.0 $20.0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Source: J.D. Power and Federal Reserve 40
42 Light Vehicle Incentives As of Transaction Price Sep % '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Source: J.D. Power and Federal Reserve 41
43 Auto Loan Rates New Autos 48 Month Loan Commercial Banks Q % '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors 42
44 Average Loan Term Finance Term in In Months Sep '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Source: J.D. Power and Federal Reserve 43
45 Gasoline Current Dollars per Gallon, U.S. Regular All Formulations $5.00 $4.00 Jul 08 $4.06 $3.00 $2.00 Sep 15 $2.37 $1.00 Dec 08 $1.69 $0.00 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 44
46 Car / Truck Mix of Total Light Vehicles '79 '83 '87 '91 '95 '99 '03 '07 '11 '15 Car Light Truck Sep % 42.4% Source: Author s Calculations using Ward s Automotive data 45
47 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Thousands of Units Calendar Year Thousands 18,000 16,000 16,948 16,504 16,089 15,532 16,434 17,100 17,200 14,440 14,000 13,195 12,735 12,000 11,554 10,000 10,401 8,000 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Source: Ward s Automotive and BEA and Blue Chip Economic Indicators 46
48
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